Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Thursday, January 31 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, January 28 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
---|
By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
---|
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 7
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Very selective group of breakouts. Bulls be conservative. Stock market vulnerable to a pull back now.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011- 2012)
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TSCO - AVERAGE |
TSCO, based in Brentwood, Ten., operates stores selling farm and ranch products. Annual revenues: $4.6 billion. TSCO's stock breaks out today from a ten-month flat base. The move carries the stock to a new high. The push higher was set off when the company reported stronger than expected quarterly earnings.
So far today, TSCO is trading a heavy 3.4 million shares, six times its normal daily volume of 594,000 shares.
TSCO's 10-minute chart shows the stock driving higher early in the session. It then trended sideways until early in the afternoon. That is when it made another push higher.
One can see on the intraday chart that volume expanded strongly when the stock headed north.
TSCO reported net for the fourth quarter climbed to $1.11 a share from 96 cents a year ago.
The $1.11 topped the Street estimate of $1.03. The stock responded very bullishly to the news.
Sales for the quarter came in at $1.29 billion, up from $1.24 billion a year ago.
For the year earnings climbed to $3.80 a share from $3.01 the year before.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks of the past few days surging from $93.52 to $103.67.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 15,000 shares crossed the tape at $100. That was up from the prior block at $93.52.
TSCO is a specialty retailer which supplies the daily farming and maintenance needs of its customers who are either part-time or full-time farmers and ranchers. It also services rural customers, contractors and tradesmen.
TSCO's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 28% versus 15% for the S&P 500 index.
TSCO's long-term chart shows the stock soaring from 9 back in 2003 to 33.80 by early 2006. The stock then tailed off the next few years. However, in 2010, TSCO started to drive higher and has since made a fivefold move. It has gone through three 2-for-1 stock splits the past 11 years. TTD sees chances for another 2-for-1 stock split.
TSCO's daily chart shows the stock gapping higher and out of its base with a strong expansion in volume. That is aggressive action.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The gap move and big volume is bullish too. However, it also hints a modest resting period may be needed.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has turned up, although it lags a bit.
For 2013, analysts project a 14% increase in net to $4.35 a share from the $3.80 a year before.
Going out to 2014, they look for a 17% rise in net to $5.09 a share.
For the upcoming first quarter of 2013, profits should rise 12% to 62 cents a share from 55 cents the year before. The highest estimate on the Street is at 70 cents a share.
The company has surprised on the upside the past nine quarters. That is impressive. The gain over the consensus has ranged from one to 8 cents a share.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting TSCO for a move to 100 off this breakout. The stock is a bit extended near-term. So, one can use a scale in strategy.
A protective stop can be placed near 97. TTD rates TSCO a slightly above average intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Good. Some high quality funds have positions in the stock.
The largest fund holder is 5-star rated Wells Fargo Advantage Growth Fund with a 3.1% stake. However, it was a recent seller of 53,000 shares.
The 5-star rated MainStay Marketfield I Fund was a recent purchaser of 51,000 shares and 4-star Artisan Mid Cap Fund added 112,400 shares.
TSCO has 70.4 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 89% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Bearish. Insiders were recent buyers using stock options at around $21 to $28. They sold around $96. Currently, 21 analysts follow the stock, 14 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Tractor Supply Co. - (TSCO) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - QCOM - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PFMT - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ACIW - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - RTIX - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 5
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small number of breakdown stocks today. Stock market looking topy. Bears be alert.
Millennial Media Inc., based in Baltimore, provides advertising services via mobile platforms. Annual revenues: $104 million. MM's stock breaks below key technical support today. The move triggers a TTD short. So far today, MM is trading 963,177 shares. Its average daily volume is 735,000 shares.
TTD highlighted MM as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.
MM's stock fell sharply in the morning. It hit an intraday low of 11.33. The stock lifted a bit in the afternoon to trim some of its loss.
The tape action shows bearish action.
The price for the blocks the past few days declined from $12.25 to $11.47.
A key bearish block came Thursday when 10,000 shares crossed at $11.47. That was down from $11.77 on the prior block.
MM is a mobile advertising platform company. Its technology and data platform, known as MYDAS (TM) determines in real-time which ad to deliver.
The company's solutions for developers include software development kits, banner displays, video adds, mediation tools, and data and analytics. It serves advertisers, media developers, and mobile operators in the U.S.ates. Millennial Media, Inc. is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland.
For 2012, analysts expect MM to post a loss of 12 cents a share compared with a loss of 32 cents a share a year ago. Going out to 2013, they look for a profit of 5 cents a share.
MM's daily chart shows the stock pulling back from a peak near 16 to 12. Today, it cuts below key technical support. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) slips into bearish territory.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting MM for a decline to 8.70 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 12.20.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MM - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)