Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Friday, January 31, 2014 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Tuesday, January 21, 2013 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 15
Overall Quality of Breakouts - AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list large with some good looking plays. Homebuilding stocks acting strong and a few have broken out to the upside. Stock market weak now. Bulls be careful.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -AZPN - ABOVE AVERAGE |
AZPN, based in Burlington, Mas. produces software for manufacturers. Annual revenues: $328 million. AZPN's stock breaks out today from a six-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a new 13-year high. The stock's all-time high was 56.87 set in 1998. The stock's breakout was triggered by strong quarterly earnings.
TTD highlighted AZPN as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.
The stock was also featured in Thursday's TTD report.
AZPN's stock drove sharply higher in the morning and cleared its breakpoint. (see 10-minute chart)
The stock then trended sideways the rest of the session holding easily above the breakpoint even though the stock market sold off sharply late in the day.
AZPN's big move came after the company reported earnings for the fiscal second quarter ended December 30 jumped to 27 cents a share from 13 cents a year ago.
The 27 cents topped the consensus estimate on the Street of 17 cents a share and the stock responded bullishly to the news.
AZPN's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $41.50 in the prior session to as high as $45.57.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 14,677 shares, duplicated, crossed the tape at $43.44. That was up sharply from the prior block at $41.50.
Late in the afterhours trading a block crossed at a lower price. However, one needs to be cautious about that action.
AZPN makes process optimization software and also provides services.
The company's aspenONE solutions enable manufacturers to reduce costs, increase capacity, and optimize operational performance end-to-end throughout the engineering, plant operations, and supply chain management processes.
AZPN's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 50% versus a 20% gain for the S&P 500 index.
AZPN's long-term chart shows the stock hitting a low of just 59 cents back in 2002. It had been in the 50s a few years before. The stock hit rock bottom.
The stock then rallied to 17.96 by 2007, the top in the prior bull market. AZPN then declined to 5 in 2008 due to the bear market. However, since then the stock has been on a tear soaring to 45 a sensational ninefold move.
AZPN's daily chart shows the stock trending higher from 30 back in July to 42 by mid-December. The stock then formed a flat base above its rising 50-day moving average line.
The breakout today is strong.
The stock gaps higher with expanding volume and a widening of the daily spread (range from high to low).
AZPN's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line compliments the price action of the stock near-term. The AD line fell back in August when there was big volume.
The company is benefiting from strong sales which rose 28% in the fiscal second quarter.
It was the nineth quarter in a row where the company topped Street estimates (see table).
Analysts have been forecasting a 27% jump in earnings for the fiscal year ending in June. They've been looking for net of 61 cents a share, up from 48 cents the year before. However, that forecast could be lifted.
Profits for the upcoming fiscal third quarter ending in March is projected to jump 60% to 16 cents a share from 10 cents a year ago.
Looking out to fiscal 2015 ending in June, the Street projects a 29% gain in profits.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting AZPN for a push to 53 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 42.
TTD rates AZPN an excellent intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.
Sponsorship: Good. Several index funds have been heavy buyers of the stock. The largest fund holder, though, is Waddell & Reed Science and Technology Fund, 4-star rated, with a big 4.9% stake.
Waddell was a recent seller of 407,600 shares. The Clearbridge Small Cap Growth Fund, 4-star rated, was a recent purchaser of 168,750 shares. It is the third largest holder with a 1.7% stake.
AZPN has 92.5 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Bearish. Insiders have been using stock options as low as $4 to buy the stock recently. They were recent sellers around $41.92. Right now, 5 analysts follow the stock, 3 have a buy, the same as 3 months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Aspen Technology Inc. - (AZPN) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CMG - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - QIHU - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - GLT - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CPSI - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 7
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Modest list of breakdown stocks today. Bears be selective. Stock market in a sideways pattern.
PPO, based in Charlotte, N.C. makes highly specialized polymer-based membranes used in separation and filtration processes. Annual revenues: $698 million. PPO"s stock gaps lower today undercutting key technical support. So far today, PPO is trading a heavy 3.1 million shares, almost 10 times its average daily volume. TTD sees more on the downside.
TTD highlighted PPO as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.
The stock moved lower in the morning. It hit an intraday low of $31.75 early in the session. The stock then lifted slightly and trended sideways hugging around $33.
Analysts are forecasting that PPO will show a 31% drop in fourth quarter net to 23 cents a share form 33 cents a year ago.
Overall, they look for profits for 2013 to fall 52% to 69 cents a share from $1.42 the year before.
PP's tape action shows the price of its recent block trades falling from $35.91 a few sessions ago to $32.40 on Friday.
A key bearish trade came when a block of 49,500 shares crossed the tape at $32.40. That was down from the prior block at $35.77.
PPO also disclosed that its Celgard subsidiary filed a complaint in the U.S. District Court of the Western District of North Carolina against LG Chem, Ltd. and LG Chem America, Inc. The complaint alleges that LG has infringed Celgard's United States Patent for an invention entitled "Separator for a High Energy Rechargeable Lithium Battery."
PPO's earnings are expected to rebound 75% in 2014 to $1.20 a share from the anticipated 69 cents a share expected for 2013.
PPO's daily chart shows the stock trending lower. It had a gap drop in November with big volume. Now it has another significant breakdown that cuts below key technicals support. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a steady down trend indicating consistent selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting PPO for a drop to 27 within the next few months. A protective stop buy can be placed near 34.70.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PPO - AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)