Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, January 29, 2018 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Wednesday - January 31, 2018
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 12
Quality of Breakouts - Above Average
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Large list of breakouts with some interesting plays. Aggressive bulls can be venturesome.
Stock market - Bullish. Major market averages remain bullish in all time zones. The market has lost its strong upside momentum. The market now looks to be going into a consolidation.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish, |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MTOR - ABOVE AVERAGE |
MTOR, based in Troy, Mich., makes truck components such as axles and brakes. Annual revenues: $3.2 billion. MTOR's stock breaks out Wednesday from an 18-week, cup-and-handle base.
The move carries the stock near a 16-year high. It needs to top $27.96.
MTOR's all-time high was set at 46.79 back in 1972.
So far today, MTOR is trading a heavy 4.1 million shares, four times its average daily volume of 900,000 shares.
The drive higher Wednesday was triggered when MTOR came in with better than expected earnings for the fiscal first quarter ending in December.
The company came in with net of 62 cents a share topping the Street estimate of 46 cents a share.
The stock gapped higher in the morning and then moved higher to clear its breakpoint line. (see 10-minute chart)
The stock then spent the rest of the session holding just above the breakpoint line.
Tape Action
MTOR's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $24 in the prior session to as high as $27.56 Wednesday.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 43,737 shares crossed the tape at $25.88.
That was up sharply from the prior block at $24 on 25,905 shares late on Tuesday.
After the NYSE close Wednesday, a block of 344,800 shares crossed the tape at $27.28.
That came on an up tick from the prior trade a $27.27 on 389 shares.
Business
MTOR supplies parts, integrated systems, modules and components to makers of commercial vehicles and to the aftermarket.
MTOR' produces drivetrain systems, axles, braking and suspension systems, for medium- and heavy-duty trucks.
They also supply parts for off-highway , military, construction, bus and coach, fire and emergency and other vehicles.
Charts
MTOR's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 82% versus a 22% gain for the stock market.
Insiders were buyers earlier this year. The price was not disclosed. There was some straight buying later at $16.84
They were sellers recently at $23 to $24 a share.
MTOR's long-term chart shows the stock falling to a bear market low of 79 cents a share back in 2009 due to the bear market.
The stock rallied to a peak of $22.64 by 2011. However, it fell back again to around $5 by 2012. Since then the stock has been working higher. Its all-time high is $46.79 set back in 1972.
MTOR's daily chart shows the stock climbing from $18 back in August to a peak near $27.
The stock has put down a tight flat base and was well positioned to breakout at any time.
However, it did not. It faded back to around $22. to $23.
Now on Wednesday the stock gaps higher off its earnings report and breaks out.
The move comes with a widening of the daily spread.
MTOR's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.
Earnings Outlook
MTOR reported net from operations for the fiscal first quarter of 62 cents topping the Street estimate of 46 cents a share.
The results exclude non-recurring items.
For fiscal 2018 ending in September, analysts expect net to be jump 34% to $2.51 a share from the $1.88 the year before.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of just 10. That is attractive for value investors.
Looking ahead to fiscal 2019 ending in September, analysts predict a 14% gain in profits to $2.87 a share from the anticipated $2.51 this fiscal year.
Net for the fiscal second quarter ending in March should leap 80% to 63 cents a share from 35 cents the year before.
The highest estimate is at 66 cents a share.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting MTOR for a move to $34 within the next few months.
A protective stop can be placed near $25.30.. TTD rates MTOR a good intermediate-term play.
Suitability: Average Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Extremely Bullish. MTOR has scored some big gains off recent breakouts.
Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish. MTOR's stock moved higher 9 times after the past 14 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Extremely Bullish. MTOR has averaged a gain of 11.7% in February the past five years and 0.1% in March.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
45% |
8/7/2017 | 18.33 | 26.75 | 11/3/2017 |
4% |
4/21/2017 | 17.05 | 17.86 | 4/26/2017 |
28% |
1/11/2017 | 13.39 | 17.13 | 3/31/2017 |
49% | 11/11/2016 | 11.49 | 17.13 | 3/31/2017 |
25% | 7/18/2016 | 8.92 | 11.15 | 8/16/2016 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Meritor Inc. (MTOR) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - EA - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SBAC - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NEP - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - RVSB - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 8
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdowns. Bears be selective. Stock market now appears to be going into consolidation.
UTHR, based in Silver Spring, Md., is a biotech firm. working on treatments for chronic and life-threatening conditions. Annual revenues: $1.6 billion. UTHR's stock falls sharply Wednesday and undercuts key technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, UTHR is trading 670,515 shares, almost double its average daily volume of 398,000 shares.
UTHR's stock breaks to the downside from a head-and-shoulder pattern.
The stock closes near its low for the day. That is bearish.
Tape Action
UTHR's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $136.67 in the morning to as low as $129.
A key bearish trade came around noon when a block of 28,900 shares crossed the tape at $132.22. That was down from the prior block trade at $135.59 on 2,236 shares.
Business
The company sells four commercial therapies in the U.S. to treat pulmonary arterial hypertension.,
UTHR sells an oncology product in the U.S. called Unituxin Injection, which is approved to treat neuroblastoma.
The company is also engaged in early-stage research on organ transplantation-related technologies.
Earnings:
This year, analysts are forecasting a 10% decline in net to $11.64 a share from the anticipated $12.96 for 2017.
Net for the first quarter is expected to drop 17% to $3.21 a share from the $3.89 the year before.
Charts:
UTHR's daily chart shows the stock breaking down from a head-shoulder-pattern.
The 12-month performance chart shows the stock falling 20% versus a 22% gain for the stock market.
Insiders have been heavy and consistent sellers at $127 to $139 a share. They were buyers using stock options at $30 to $94 a share.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting UTHR for a decline to $105 a share within the next few months. A protective stop buy can be placed near $138.
Suitability: Average Bears.
TTD's special probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Bearish. UTHR rose just 3 times after the past 11 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Bearish. UTHR declined an average of 0.5% in February the past five years and fell 3.3 in March.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - UTHR - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.
Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. TickerTape Digest Inc. 1220 W. Sherri, Gilbert, Az. 85233.
TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)