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Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of  Stock Charts - Monday, February 4

Daily - Bullish Investors  - Go To TTD Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch  List and Performance - Tuesday, February 5, 2013

Go To Prior Days TTD "Reports"

Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, February 4

See TTD's Top Performing Breakouts 2011-2012


Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks"


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Ticker Tape Digest

Monday - February 4, 2013


By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

Ticker Tape Digest's

Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers

1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades.

2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show.

3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show.

4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day.


Trading Strategies

Bullish

Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance)


Aggressive Investor Bullish-  "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit."  (See Performance)


Conservative Investors  "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term."  Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance)


Bearish

Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns  (See Performance)

 The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

Quote or chart

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

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Ticker Tape Digest's Midsession Stock Market Video Show

(Posted 12:30 to 1 p.m. NYSE Time)


Go to TTD Stock Market Show For - February 4

Go to Shows for Latest Week: Monday - Tuesday - Wednesday - Thursday -  Friday
(Best with Cable or DSL - High quality - Windows Media Video)



  Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 5

Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Bull side - Breakout list small as stock market falls sharply. Bulls be selective. Stock market tends to be bearish in February.

 (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Neutral

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market  (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish 


Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action - February 4

(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011- 2012)

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  


Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

MWI Veterinary Supply Inc. (MWIV) - 123.52, up 8.02 - Breakpoint 119.12

Hits New High, Profits Favorable, TTD Targets 145

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MWIV - AVERAGE

  MWIV, based in Boise, Idaho, sells animal health products to veterinarians. Annual revenues: $2.1 billion. MWIV posts solid earnings today and the news sends the stock breaking out from a two-month flat base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high.

 TTD highlighted MWIV as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Monday.

  So far today, MWIV is trading 171,471 shares, four times its normal daily volume 42,000 shares. The stock is thinly traded.

  MWIV reported earnings for the fiscal first quarter ended December 31 rose 26%. Diluted EPS was $1.32 a share, up from $1.05 a year ago. The Street consensus was at $1.19 a share.

  The $1.32 topped the highest estimate on the Street of $1.25. Whenever a company can do that it has the potential to move higher for the next few weeks as analysts have to adjusted their outlook for the company.

  MWIV's 10-minute chart shows the stock spiking higher in the morning and clearing its breakpoint line.

  The stock then trended sideways holding its gain. That was good considering the stock market was weak for the day and susceptible to profit taking.

  MWIV's tape action shows the recent big block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $113.80 on Friday to a peak of $124.48 on Monday.

  A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 1,500 shares crossed the tape at 124.36.   

  MWIV is a distributor of animal health products to veterinarians across the U.S.

 It sells pharmaceuticals, vaccines, parasiticides, diagnostics, capital equipment, supplies, veterinary pet food and nutritional products.

 They market these products to veterinarians in both the companion animal and production animal markets.

  MWIV's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 48% versus a 12% gain for the S&P 500 index. The stock has done well after its past three earnings reports.

   MWIV's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in late 2005 and trading around 20. The advance to a peak of 45 in 2008. The stock then pulled back to 20 during the bear market. However, since then the stock has galloped higher making a sensational sixfold move.  

  MWIV's daily chart shows the stock advancing from 90 back in August to a peak of 119 in November.

  MWIV then put down a well formed flat base.

  The breakout today is ideal coming with expanding volume and a widening of the daily spread.

  The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has turned up and is acting well.

  Analysts have been forecasting a 13% rise in MWIV's net for the fiscal year ending September of 2013 to $4.77 a share from $4.23 a year ago. That estimate probably will be lifted. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of  25. That seems high, but with net to be upgraded most likely it is okay.

  Going out to fiscal 2014, they currently look for a 13% gain in net to $5.39 a share from the anticipated $4.77 for fiscal 2013.

  Net for the upcoming fiscal second quarter ending March 30 should climb 13% to $1.18 a share from $1.04 a year before.

  Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting MWIV for a move to 145 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 118.

 TTD rates MWIV an average intermediate-term play. The potential of earnings surprises is a bonus possibility.

  Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is Neuberger Berman Genesis Fund with a big 9% stake.

  The 4-star rated fund was a recent buyer of 29,800 shares. The largest fund buyer recently was Lord Abbett Developing Growth Fund, 3-star rated, which purchased 140,671 shares. It has a 2.1% stake.

  MWIV has just 12.8 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 93% of the stock.

  Insider Activity: Bearish. Insiders have been steady sellers the past few months. The latest selling came around $113. There has been very little buying. Currently, 6 analysts follow the stock, 4 have a buy, up from 3 three months ago.



Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.

  


TTD's Breakout Profile Rating
MWI Veterinary Supply Inc. - (MWIV)  
TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES
Volume YES  
Tick Volume YES
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term YES    
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES    
Base - A-D YES
Earnings-Quarterly YES  
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES  
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success YES  
Fund Sponsorship YES  
Total Score 14 0 0

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BRO  - AVERAGE

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - GLF  - AVERAGE

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AMWD - BELOW AVERAGE

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AJG - BELOW AVERAGE


Ticker Tape Digest's

Pre-Market Breakout Watch List

Selections for - Tuesday, February 5, 2013


Ticker Tape Digest provides a list of potential breakout stocks from our screen of companies that will show some of the strongest earnings gains. One of the best ways to play these stocks is to study the list and then place a stop buy order to catch the stock on the breakout.

One can take either a full position on the breakout if they are aggressive, or scale-in looking to add to the stake later if they are conservative. TTD's premarket breakout watch list gives you a great opportunity "to be prepared for the next key breakout stock just before it happens." The list will be updated daily and the screen monthly.


TTD's Breakout Watch List Set up on February 1, 2013

Latest prices are February 4


Stocks with Gain in blue have surpassed their breakpoint and have broken out of their base.



Guide: Symbol=Ticker, Name=Corporate name, Entry is the buy price to enter on the breakout, Last=prior close, Change=change from last close to prior, Date=date of price of close etc, Gain in blue is price above breakpoint (entry), Gain in red is price below breakpoint (entry)., % Gain in blue is % over breakpoint (entry), Gain in red is % below breakpoint (entry)

TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking Trade Setups for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest.

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 4

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side - Small number of breakdown stocks today even as stock market falls sharply. Bears now have better chances, especially since February is a bearish seasonal period. TTD's short from Friday was Brinks (BCO) at 27.65. It has declined to 27.24 and is working well for bears.


List of Stocks To Sell or Short


TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Mercury General Corp. (MCY) - 37.86, down 2.48

Reports Quarterly Loss, TTD Sees Drop to 32

  MCY, based in Los Angeles, provides auto insurance. Annual revenues: $2.9 billion. MCY's stock fall sharply today after the company reported a loss for the fourth quarter. So far today MCY is trading 731,176 shares, almost double its normal daily volume of 465,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.

 TTD highlighted MCY as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Monday.

  MCY reported a fourth quarter loss of 32 cents a share compared with a profit of $1.45 a year ago. The results disappointed the Street.

  The stock fell sharply in the morning and hit an intraday low of $37.75 in the late morning. It then trended sideways through the afternoon unable to rally.

  MCY's tape action shows the recent big block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks declining from $40.34 to $38. A key bearish trade came in the morning when 6,076 shares crossed the tape at $39.93. That was down from the prior block trade at $40.34.

 MCY writes all risk classifications of automobile insurance in a number of states, principally California.

 The company offers automobile policyholders coverage for bodily injury liability, underinsured and uninsured motorist, property damage liability, comprehensive, collision and other hazards specified in the policy.

  Analysts expect net for the upcoming first quarter to decline 14%. For all of 2013, they project a 40% rise in profits.

  MCY's chart shows the stock breaking hard to the downside and undercutting key support. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a sharp downtrend. That indicates heavy selling pressure.

   Strategy Opinion:  TTD is targeting MCY for a drop to 32 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 39.20.


                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MCY -  BELOW AVERAGE


TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2013

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)