Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, February 5, 2018 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Tuesday - February 6, 2018
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 1
Quality of Breakouts - Above Average
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Only one breakout Tuesday. Bulls be patient as stock market tries to form a bottom after its recent sharp selloff.
Stock market - Bearish on daily chart. Bullish in the weekly except for the S&P 500. Monthly, bullish.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish, |
Nasdaq - Bearish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bearish |
S&P 500 - Bearish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - LPLA - ABOVE AVERAGE |
LPLA, based in Boston, is a broke and investment advisor. Annual revenues: $4.3 billion. LPLA's stock breaks out Tuesday from a five-week flat base. The move carries the stock close to a new all-time high.
So far today, LPLA is trading $1.7 million shares. Its average daily volume is one million shares.
TTD featured LPLA as a breakout at our midsession video show on the web.
LPLA's 10-minute chart shows the stock pushing higher in the morning and clearing its breakpoint line.
The stock then trend on its breakpoint line through most of the day.
Then near the close LPLA pushed higher to finish nicely above the breakpoint line with a pick up in volume.
Tape Action
LPLA's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $59.55 in the morning to as high as $62.79 late in the day.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 7,223 shares crossed the tape at $62.54.
That was up from the prior block trade at $59.55 on 7,883 shares (duplicated.
Near the close a block of 95,400 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $62.59.
That came on a down tick from the prior trade at $62.60 on 100 shares.
The tape action would indicate some institutional profit taking near the close.
Business
LPLA is a broker-dealer, an investment advisors and an independent consultant to retirement plans.
The company provides a platform of brokerage and investment advisory services to independent financial advisors, including financial advisors at financial institutions across the country.
It also supported approximately 4,000 financial advisors, affiliated and licensed with insurance companies through customized clearing services and advisory platforms.
Charts
LPLA's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 58% versus an 18% gain for the stock market.
Insiders were buyers using stock options $21 to $27 a share.
They were sellers at $39 to $48.
LPLA's long-term chart shows the stock coming public back in 2010 at $33.53. The stock then climbed to a peak of $58.45 by early 2014. .
The stock then fell back to $15.38 in early 2016. However, since then LPLA has been climbing North aggressively. It is now in position to make a new high. The stock has tripled since 2016.
LPLA's daily chart shows the stock trending higher from $48 back in November to a peak near $62.
The stock put down a small flat base and broke out three sessions ago on earnings.
The stock backed off the next day due to the big drop in the stock market
However, it now reemerges from its base.
The stock's CCI momentum indicator is solidly bullish.
Earnings Outlook:
This year, analysts expect LPLA's net to climb 26% to $3.78 a share from the $3 a year before.
The stock has a price-earnings ratio of 16. TTD sees that as attractive for value-growth investors.
Looking out to 2019, the Street projects a 26% jump in net to $4.76 a share from the anticipated $3.78 expected for this year.
Net for the first quarter is expected to rise a modest 2% to 67 cents a share from the 66 cents the year before.
The highest estimate on the Street is at 72 cents a share.
LPLA has topped the consensus estimate the past four quarters by 52 cents a share, 3 cents, 8 cents and 30 cents.
Looking out to the second quarter, the Street expects a 50% surge in net to $1.11 a share from the 74 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting LPLA for a move to $75 within the next few months.
A protective stop can be placed near $59.
TTD rates LPLA an average intermediate-term play
Suitability: Average Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish. LPLA has scored some good gains off its recent breakouts.
Probability - Earnings Response - Neutral. LPLA rose 6 times after the past 12 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Slightly Bullish. LPLA declined an average of 3.5% in February the past several years. It rose an average of 5.3% in March.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
17% |
12/8/2017 | 53.95 | 63.10 | Still in play |
12% |
9/19/2017 | 47.79 | 53.47 | 10/20/2017 |
8% |
7/19/2017 | 43.81 | 47.30 | 8/16/2017 |
37% | 10/11/2016 | 30.84 | 42.45 | 12/1/2016 |
39% | 10/18/2013 | 39.22 | 54.48 | 2/20/2014 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 9
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Large list of breakdown stocks even though stock market rebounds. Bears can be venturesome. Stock market will most likely be in a trading range.
TTD's short from Monday was Prothena Corp. (PRTA) at $32.14. Tuesday, PRTA declined 3.01 to 29.13 and is working well for bears.
AGCO, based in Duluth, Ga., makes agricultural equipment such as tractors and sprayers. Annual revenues: $7.4 billion. AGCO's stock falls sharply Tuesday and undercuts key technical support. The drop was triggered by weak earnings.
So far today, AGCO is trading 2.4 million shares, triple its average daily volume of 677,000 shares.
TTD highlighted AGCO as a short at our midsession video show on the Web.
AGCO came in with net for the third quarter of $1.10 a share. That was below the consensus estimate of $1.13 a share.
AGCO's gapped lower in the morning and undercut key technical support. The stock touched an intraday low of $65.39.
The stock lifted late in the day to trim some of its deficit.
Tape Action
AGCO's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $70.96 in the prior session to as low as $66.06 Tuesday.
A key bearish trade came late on Monday when a block of 50,549 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $70.62.
That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $70.96 on 10,482 shares.
Business
AGCO makes tractors, combines, self-propelled sprayers, hay tools, forage equipment, seeding and tillage equipment, implements, and grain storage and protein production systems.
The company operates in North America, South America, Europe/Middle East, and Asia/Pacific/Africa.
AGCO sells under various brands including Challenger, Fendt, GSI, Massey Ferguson and Valtra. The company distributed its products through 3,000 independent dealers in150 countries.
Earnings:
This year, analysts are forecasting a 24% increase in net to $3.74 a share from the $3.03 the year before.
The company had topped consensus estimates the past 15 quarters. So, the miss on quarterly net was a big disappointment.
Charts:
AGCO's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower and cutting below key support.
AGCO's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 7% versus an 18% gain for the stock market.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting AGCO for a decline to $59 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $70.
Suitability: Average Bears.
TTD's special probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Bearish. AGCO rose just 6 times after the past 15 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Slightly Bullish. AGCO rose 1.1% on average in February the past five year. It was flat for March.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AGCO - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.
Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. TickerTape Digest Inc. 1220 W. Sherri, Gilbert, Az. 85233.
TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
Credit cards accepted. Payable to Corona Publishing Enterprises.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)