Aggressive Investors Bullish - Go To TTD Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch List - Mnday, February 8
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Aggressive Investors Bullish - Go To TTD Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch List - Mnday, February 8 |
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Aggressive Investor Bullish- Go To TTD Quick Trade Setups (win rate 70%) - Monday, February 8 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend. |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Only a few breakouts today. Stock market weakens in the afternoon. Bulls remain careful and continue to honor all stops. Because all time indicators are bearish, TTD has moved to "Neutral" on the Long-term.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CPTS - ABOVE AVERAGE |
CPTS, based in Mountain View, Ca., makes permanent birth control system. Annual revenues: $123 million. CPTS edges out from a four-month, cup-and-handle base today. The stock is moving into position to make a multi-year high. So far today, CPTS is trading 809,867 shares, double its normal daily volume of 309,000 shares. 
CPTS was highlighted by TTD at our midsession show on the Web Monday.
CPTS is marked off with two breakpoints. TTD's 5-minute chart shows the stock pushing across the first breakpoint line at $20.04 and then the stock late in the morning.
The stock hugged the top breakpoint line most of the day. Going into the close it is acting well despite a decline in the overall stock market.
CPTS's shows some good institutional buying in the morning. A key trade was a big block of 47,900 shares that crossed at $20.32. That was up from the prior block trade at $20.30.
However, in the midafternoon a big block trade crossed at $20.46. It was down from the prior block trade price. So, the tape action showed some profit taking in the early afternoon.
CPTS products the Essure permanent birth control system, a medical device for women that is approved for marketing in the United States.
The Essure system uses a soft and flexible micro-insert that is delivered into a woman's fallopian tubes to provide permanent birth control by causing benign tissue in-growth that blocks the fallopian tubes.
A properly placed Essure micro-insert and the subsequent tissue growth prohibits the egg from traveling through the fallopian tubes and therefore prevents fertilization.
On January 7, 2008, the Company acquired all of the outstanding shares of Conceptus SAS. Through Conceptus SAS, it sells Essure directly in France and uses distributors to sell Essure throughout the rest of Europe.
The past nine months, the stock has appreciated 48% compared with a 19% rise in the S&P 500 index.
CPTS long-term chart shows the stock approaching its all-time high near 25. The stock has rebounded well from the bear market low near 10. 
CPTS's daily chart shows the stock attempted a breakout in January. However, the stock faded back. It is once again moving higher and is now pushing through a breakpoint zone.
It will be important for the stocks success for it to pick up more volume and move higher in the coming sessions. It has performed well so far given the weak stock market.
CPTS' TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is slightly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a strong up trend. That indicates robust buying is now taking place in the stock.
The company will report 2009 results on Tuesday February 23.
Analysts look for a big jump in 2009 net to 25 cents a share from one cent a year ago.
For the fourth quarter, net is expected to be up 31% to 22 cents a share from 17 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 28 cents a share. In the prior quarter, the third, the company surprised big on the upside topping the consensus estimate of 9 cents a share by coming in with 24 cents. TTD sees chances for another upside surprise.
Looking out to 2010, analysts forecast a 128% gain in net to 58 cents a share from the anticipated 25 cents a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 35%.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CPTS for a move to 26 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 19. TTD rates CPTS a good intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated Federated Kaufmann Fund with a big 11.8% stake. It has held its position steady. A key buyer recently was 5-star rated Primecap Odyssey Growth Fund which picked up 83,500 shares. CPTS has 30.7 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were buyers using stock options. They turned around and sold between $19 and $20. Right now, 9 analysts follow the stock, 3 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 9 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
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TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Conceptus Inc. - (CPTS) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 12 | 0 | 2 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HAS - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - RBC - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 4
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Small number of breakdown stocks today. Stock market showing inability to rally effectively. Bears remain alert.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
SRCL, based in Lake Forest, Il., provides disposal of medical waste. Annual revenues: $1.2 billion. SRCL's stock breaks below near term support near 53. The stock's drop is coming with increased volume. On Friday, when SRCL declined sharply volume swelled to 1.9 million shares. triple its normal daily volume of 629,000 shares. Today, the stock moves lower again. TTD sees more on the down side for this trading short play. 
So far today, SRCL is down in price again. Volume is running at 718,589 shares, slightly more than its daily average. SRCL has a low beta of 0.34 versus 1.00 for the stock market. So, the stock tends to move slowly.
Today, SRCL fell sharply at the opening and hit a bottom at 50.97 in the first hour of trading. It then staged a modest rally, but in the afternoon is starting to fade again as the stock market weakens.
The company operates in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, the United Kingdom and Ireland.
Its national networks include a total of 89 processing or combined processing and collection sites, and 97 additional transfer, collection or combined transfer and collection sites.
SRCL waste processing technologies include autoclaving, its own electro-thermal-deactivation system , chemical treatment and incineration. During the year ended December 31, 2008, the Company completed 22 acquisitions.
This year analysts forecast a 13% increase in net to $2.37 a share from $2.09 a year ago.
SRCL's daily chart shows the stock breaking down from a head-and-shoulder topping pattern with volume heavy. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is bearish. The accumulation - distribution line - bottom of chart is rolling over.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting SRCL for a decline to 46 within the next few months. We see the stock as a trading play. A protective stop buy can be placed near 53, which is tight.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
