Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Thursday, February 10 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - February 7 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
1 - TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long - (Intermediate-term long plays) these are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
2 -TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long - (Short-term long plays These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
3 - TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - (Long Term long plays. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
4 - TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 12
Overall Quality of Breakouts - AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Good number of breakouts today. Stock market backs off slightly. Bulls be selective as stock market is extended and volume is contracting.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011)
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - RVBD - ABOVE AVERAGE |
RVBD, based in San Francisco, provides solutions to improve information technology performance across wide area networks. Annual revenues: $552 million. RVBD's stock breaks out today from a six-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a new high. So far today, RVBD is trading 8.4 million shares. Its average daily volume of 5.3 million shares.
RVBD's push to a new high is bullish and could draw in more buying from the new-high crowed on Friday.
RVBD's 10-minute chart shows the stock moving up strongly in the morning. It drove over its breakpoint and peaked round noon.
The stock has been able to hold its breakout so far.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 85. So, it is most suitable for aggressive investors.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $38.65 to a peak of $41.55.
In the morning, there was a bearish block trade of 32,757 shares (duplicated) that crossed at $38.27. That was down from the prior block at $39.16. However, later in the day a key bullish block came in at 36,800 shares crossing at $40.49.
RVBD's steelhead products enable its customers to improve the performance of their applications and access to their data across WANs, typically increasing transmission speeds by 5 to 50 times and in some cases by up to 100 times.
RVBD sells its products and support to end users directly through its sales force and indirectly through channel partners, including value-added distributors, value-added resellers, systems integrators and service providers.
The company operates internationally through wholly owned subsidiaries that primarily support sales, marketing and support activities.
RVBD's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating a sensational 240% versus a 24% gain for the S&P 500 index.
RVBD's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in 2006 and trading around 9. the stock climbed to a peak of 26. It was then pulled down by the bear market. It hit a low 3.55. Ouch! The stock has since roared back having made a tenfold move. It is one of the big winners of the past two years.
RVBD's daily chart shows the stock surging from 15 to a peak of 40. The stock then set up a base with one shakeout to the downside. The breakout today comes with a widening of the spread and expansion in volume.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend. It shows that there has been no significant distribution.
This year, analysts forecast an 84% gain in net to 48 cents a share from 26 cents a share a year ago. Going out to 2012, the Street looks for a 39% gain in net to 67 cents a share.
TTD sees the fundamentally driver for the stock being strong profits for the next two quarters.
Net for the first quarter is expected to surge 221% to 10 cents a share from 3 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 12 cents a share.
Looking ahead to the second quarter profits are expected to climb 153% to 11 cents a share from 5 cents a year ago.
The company is making the "chicken dinner circuit." They presented at the Stifel Nicolaus Technology Conference in San Francisco. On Wednesday, Feb. 16, they will be at the Goldman Sachs Technology conference in San Francisco.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting RVBD for a move to 49. A protective stop can be placed near 37.50. TTD rates RVBD a good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated Fidelity Growth Company Fund with a 8.7% stake. Second biggest holder is 4-star rated Fidelity Contrafund with a 2.1% stake. RVBD has 150.9 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders have been buying using stock options, but they turned around and sold. The latest selling was at $35.85. Right now, 29 analysts follow the stock, 14 have a buy, up from 12 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Riverbed Technology Inc. - (RVBD) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - RURL - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - WFMI - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ICE - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NTES - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 7
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks today as stock market continues to hold tough in favor of the bulls. TTD's short play from Wednesday was Sierra Wireless Inc. (SWIR) - 11.60, down 3.90. Today, the stock has declined to $11.12 and is working well for bears.
GSIC, based near Philadelphia, provides e-commerce and interactive marketing services to businesses that sell products directly to consumers. Annual revenues: $1.3 billion. GSIC's stock drops sharply today in heavy trading. The reason: lower earnings. So far today, GSIC is trading 6 million shares, five times its normal daily volume of 1.2 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
TTD highlighted GSIC as a short at our midsession show on the Web today.
GSIC reported fourth quarter net declined to 23 cents a share from 26 cents a year ago. The earnings were below Street estimates. The stock responded in a bearish way.
The stock fell sharply in the morning in heavy trading. It hit a bottom intraday at $20.03. The stock then trended sideways unable to rally.
GSIC's tape action shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks declining from $22.50 to as low as $20.12. A key bearish trade today was a block of 41,200 shares that crossed at $20.50. That was down from the prior block trade at $22.10.
GSIC provides products for e-commerce services, interactive marketing services and consumer engagement.
It has 500 retail customers. They include 7 for all Mankind, Aeropostale, American Eagle Outfitters, Avis, Bath & Body Works, British Airways, Calvin Klein, Christopher & Banks, Cole Haan, Dell, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Estee Lauder, and Expedia.
GSIC's daily chart shows the stock breaking below key technical support. the stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) has been bearish for several weeks. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is trending lower showing the stock has been under clear selling pressure for several weeks.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting GSIC for a decline to 17 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 21.80.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - GSIC - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)