Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of  Stock Charts - Monday, February 11, February 8

Daily - Bullish Investors  - Go To TTD Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch  List and Performance - Monday, February 11, 2013

Ticker Tape Digest

Monday - February 11, 2013

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

 The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

  Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 4

Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Bull side - Very few breakouts today. Stock market off slightly. Bulls remain selective. Market still holding up trend.

 (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Neutral

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market  (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish 

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action - February 11

(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011- 2012)

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Progressive Corp. Ohio (PGR) - 23.56, up 0.12 - Breakpoint 23.12

Profits to Rise 24% This Year, TTD Targets 28

 PGR, based in Mayfield Village, Ohio, provides auto insurance services. Annual revenues: $16.8 billion. PGR's stock edges a bit higher Monday and clears its base. The move was not large but encouraging considering the stock market was off slightly. PGR is a conservative play in the insurance sector, but one that should show strong net this year.

  So far today, PGR is trading 3.5 million shares. Its average daily volume is 4.9 million shares.

  The stock pushed slightly higher in the morning, but then faded back. (see 10-minute chart). In the afternoon it came on again. It cleared its base in the prior session.

 TTD highlighted PGR as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Monday.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows PGR's tape action.

  There was a key bullish block that crossed on Friday. It was 222,850 shares crossing at $23.44. That was up on the block sequence from a trade at $23.43.

  It was not a big move, but did show institutional buying interest.

  Then on Monday morning a big block of 67,582 shares crossed at $23.46. That was up from the prior block at $23.29.   

  That showed more aggressive institutional buying.

  PGR is an auto insurance company and a writer of auto insurance through independent agents.

  The company provides independent agents with a financially strong company that offers competitive products designed specifically for the agency business.

 PGR's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating just 8% versus a 12% gain for the S&P 500 index.

  PGR has underperformed the past 12 months. The lag in performance goes back to last summer when the stock did not keep up with the market. TTD sees potential for better performance.

  PGR's long-term chart shows the stock trading around 5 back in 2000. The stock had a strong run up to 30 by late 2005. However, it then moved lower being pull back by the bear market. It slipped back to 10. The stock has made a recovery and has about doubled the past few years.   

  PGR's daily chart shows the stock advancing from 20 in September to 23. It then went and formed a cup-and-handle base and broke out.

  The stock is showing strong technicals.

  The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has already broken out to the upside and that is good confirmation of the price breakout.

  This year, analysts are forecasting a 24% increase in PGR's earnings to $1.42 a share from $1.15 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of  16. TTD sees that as reasonable.

  Going out to 2014, the Street projects a 12% gain in net to $1.60 a share from the anticipated $1.42 this year.

 Net for the upcoming first quarter should be down 10% to 38 cents a share from 42 cents a year ago. However, the company should make up for it with a strong second quarter. That's when net should leap 66% to 33 cents a share from 20 cents the year before.

  Strategy Opinion: PGR is a conservative breakout play, but one with a good earnings outlook. TTD is targeting PGR for a move to 28 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 21.50. TTD rates PGR an average intermediate-term play.

  Sponsorship: Very Good. A key fund buyer was T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth Fund, 5-star rated, which purchased 1.2 million shares. The fund has a 1.1% stake.

  Another key buyer was Artisan Value Equity Fund, 4-star rated, which purchased 679,437 shares.

  PGR has 604 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 75% of the stock.

  Insider Activity: Bearish. Insiders were recent sellers around $21. Currently, 21 analysts follow the stock, 6 have a buy, the same as three months ago.

Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 5

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side - Small number of breakdown stocks today. Stock market is holding near-term up trend. Gold stocks continue to act weak and are the best plays for bears now.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

GMX Resources Inc. (GMXR) - 5.95, down 1.05

Loss Expected for 2013, TTD Sees Side to 4.20

  GMXR, based in Oklahoma City, produces gas. Annual revenues: $74 million. GMXR is a small cap play in the gas sector. Today, the stock breaks down hard with big volume. So far today, GMXR is trading 313,039 shares, six times its normal daily volume of 45,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.

 TTD highlighted GMXR as a short at our midsession video show on the web Monday. The stock is thinly traded.

  GMXR's stock fell steadily from the opening. It hit an intraday low of 5.80 in the morning. It then had a slight bounce but then turned lower again.

  The tape action shows the recent block trades. One can see the price for the blocks declining from$7.37 to as low as $5.93.

  A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 5,541 shares crossed the tape at $6.75.

 GMXR is an independent natural gas producer. It has interests in wells and acres in Texas, Louisiana & New Mexico.

 GMXR also has a large inventory of development prospects in North Carthage Field of East Texas. The Company's strategy is to drill and complete CVS wells, which could significantly grow production.

  This year, analysts are forecasting a loss of $4.63 a share compared with a loss of 8.26 anticipated for 2012.

   GMXR's daily chat shows the stock drifting lower from a spike move up to 11 in November down to 7. Today, the stock falls sharply with big volume. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a steady down trend showing that is under selling pressure.

   Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting GMXR for a decline to $4.20 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 6.60.

TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2013

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)