Ticker Tape Digest

Monday - February 12, 2018

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

   Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.

  We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

   The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

   TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

   To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.   

   For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Monday - February 12, 2018

TTD's Breakout Stocks

  Stock Market Overview

Total Buy Breakouts so far today -  7

Quality of Breakouts -  Below Average

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Bull side - Small list of breakouts and extremely selective.

Stock market  -  Bearish on a daily and weekly basis. Long-term, monthly pattern still holding bulllish. Stock market on a daily bais will need time to try to form a bottom. However, there is still risk of another breakdown. Earnings reports will have big impact in the weeks ahead.

Stock Market Momentum

(Daily is based on a moving average)

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action - Monday

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Advanced Drain Systems Inc. (WMS) - 26.50, up 1.50 - Breakpoint 25.28

Net to Rise 16% in Fiscal 2018 (March), TTD Targets 32 

  WMS, based in Hilliard, Ohio, makes pipes and waste management products. Annual revenues: $1.3 billion. WMS's stock surges higher Monday and breaks out from its six-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a 52-week high.

  So far today, WMS is trading 774,903 shares, triple its average daily volume of 246,000 shares.

  The stock's push higher could be linked to President Trumps plans to spend more on infrastructure improvements around the company.

  WMS's stock broke out in the morning and was highlighted at TTD's midsession video show on the Web.

  The stock drove steadily higher in the morning clearing its breakpoint line. It reached a peak near $27 by Noon.

  The stock then trended mostly sideways the rest of the day holding easily above its breakpoint line.

   Tape Action

  WMS's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $25 in the prior session to as high as $27 Monday.

  A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 4,027 shares crossed the tape at $24.15.

  That was up from the prior block at $25 on 2,355 shares late on Friday.

  Near the close a block of 19,917 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $26.50

  That was down from the prior trade at $26.90 on 200 shares. The trade before that was at $26.45 on 117 shares.

  So, the tape was very tricky near the close. TTD would see as some institutional profit taking.

  Business  

  WMS makes thermoplastic corrugated pipe and related water management products for North and South America and Europe.

The Company operates through two segments: Domestic and International.

The domestic makes products throughout the United States and the International units has facilities in Canada and through its joint ventures with local partners in Mexico, Central America and South America.

Its products include corrugated high density polyethylene pipe, polypropylene pipe and related water management products. They are used in non-residential, agriculture and infrastructure applications.

Charts

  WMS's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 11% versus a 13% gain for the stock market.

  Insiders were recent buyers using stock options at $10 to $13 a share recently. They were sellers at $20 to $23 a share.

  WMS's long-term chart shows the stock coming public back in 2014 at $15.51 a share. The stock surged to an all-time peak of $33.28 by mid-2015.

  However, the stock did a reverse falling back to $17.72 in 2016. It has since formed a long-term base and is now moving up and out of the base.

  WMS's daily chart shows the stock advancing from $18 back in early November to a peak near $24.

  The stock formed a flat base and broke out in January.

  However, WMS could not follow through and faded back.

  TTD set up a breakpoint zone and Monday, WMS clears the breakpoint zone with strong volume. The stock has been acting well since reporting earnings a few sessions ago.

  The stock's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.   

Earnings Outlook:

  This fiscal year ending in March analysts are forecasting a 16% increase in net to 67 cents a share from 58 cents the year before.

  The stock has a price-earnings ratio of 38. That is high but ok given the earnings outlook.

  Analysts predict net for the fiscal year ending in March of 2019 should leap 44% to 96 cents a share from the anticipated 67 cents this year.

  For the upcoming fiscal fourth quarter ending in March, analysts expect a loss of 11 cents a share compared with a loss of 22 cents the year before. That is a slow quarter for the company.

  Net for the fiscal first quarter ending in June is expected to jump 37% to 37 cents a share from 27 cents the year before.   

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting WMS for a move to $32 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near $24.50.

TTD rates WMS an above average intermediate-term play.

Suitability:  Average Bulls.

                 TTD's special research of  Stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Breakout Success -  Bullish. WMS has scored some average good gains off its recent breakouts.

Probability - Earnings Response - Extremely Bullish. WMS rose 8 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change.

Probability:  Seasonal Success - Modestly Bullish.  WMS declined an average of 1.4% in February the past few years. However, it rose an average of 6.5% in March.

           Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout

(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.

Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)

  Stock's Long-term Chart

   Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years

Showing % Months UP and % Change

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 3

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neural

Bear Side - Small list of shorts Monday as stock market stages "bounce recovery" after recent selloff. Bears be patient and selective.

  TTD's short from Friday was Motorcar Parts America Inc. (MPAA) at 22.01. Monday, MPAA fell to $21.45 and is working well for bears.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Abeona Therapeutics Inc. (ABEO) - 12.60, down 1.47

Loss Expected This Year, TTD Sees Decline to 9

  ABEO, based in Dallas, is a biotech firm working on novel gene therapies for life-threatening rare genetic diseases. Annual revenues: $889. ABEO's stock falls sharply Monday and undercuts key technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.   

  So far today, ABEO is trading a heavy 2.6 million shares, double its average daily volume of 1.2 million shares.

  TTD highlighted ABEO as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Monday.

  ABEO's stock fell sharply in the morning and touched an intraday low of $12.60. The stock then rallied back to $13.92 by the early afternoon. However, later in the afternoon, the stock faded badly falling back $12.60.

    Tape Action

  ABEO's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks falling from $14.45 in the morning to as low as $12.60.

  A key bearish trade came when a block of 10,000 shares crossed the tape at $13.05.

  That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $14.45 on 9,118 shares.

  Also, late on Friday a massive block of  94,736 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $14.07.

  That was down from the prior block trade at $14.09 on 10,000 shares.

  Business

  ABEO's  lead programs include ABO-102 (AAV-SGSH), an adeno-associated virus based gene therapy for Sanfilippo syndrome.

  It is also developing ABO-101 for Sanfilippo syndrome type B.    

 Earnings:

  For 2017, analysts are forecasting a loss of 60 cents a share compared with a loss of 64 cents in 2016.

  Looking out to this year, analysts predict a loss of 68 cents a share. .

  For the first quarter, analysts predict a loss of 16 cents a share.

Charts:   

  ABEO's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 190% versus a 14% gain for the stock market.

  ABEO's daily chart shows the stock falling below key support at $14. The stock has been under selling pressure the past few days.

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ABEO for a decline to $9 within the next few months. A protective stop buy can be placed near $10.

Suitability: Average Bears.

  TTD's special probability research of  Prior Performance:  

Probability - Earnings Response - Neutral.  ABEO rose 5 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change.

Probability:  Seasonal Activity - Bullish.  ABEO rose an average of  1.8% in February and a big 10.8% in March the past few years.

   Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2018

    TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been  a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

   For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.

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 TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays.  There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.  

TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.

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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)