Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Thursday, February 13, 2014
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Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Thursday, February 13, 2014 |
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Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, February 10, 2013 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market
rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs. 
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 14
Overall Quality of Breakouts - ABOVE AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Good number of breakouts with some good plays. Bulls can be venturesome. Stock market rallying across a trading range.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - UFPI - ABOVE AVERAGE |
UFPI, based in Grand Rapids, Mich., makes wood products for homes and the manufactured housing industry. Annual revenues: $2.4 billion. UFPI's stock breaks out today from a is in a 16-week flat base. The move was triggered by a strong quarterly earnings report. The move carries the stock to a seven-year high. 
UFPI reported net for the fourth quarter of 40 cents a share, up from 10 cents a year ago.
That topped the consensus estimate of 18 cents by a wide margin and topped most Street estimates. The stock responded extremely bullish to the news. 
Net sales for the quarter grew to $525.7 million from $470.8 million last year.
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected the company to report 17
TTD highlighted UFPI as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.
UFPI's 10-minute chart shows the stock breaking through resistance in the morning with expanding volume.
The stock continued to push higher through the day. That showed continued strong demand for UFPI. TTD highlighted UFPI as a potential breakout back in January. 
UFPI's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks advancing from 48 a few sessions ago to as high as $57.12 Thursday.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 2,277 shares (duplicated) crossed at $49.82.
That was up from the prior block at $49.22.
UFPI makes wood and wood-alternative products for DIY/retail home centers and other retailers, structural lumber products for the manufactured housing industry, engineered wood components for the site-built construction market, and specialty wood packaging and components for various industries.
The Company’s consumer products subsidiary sells outdoor living products, including wood composite decking, decorative balusters, post caps and plastic lattice, and its garden group offers trellises and arches, to retailers nationwide.
UFPI's long-term chart shows the stock advancing from 17 in 2003 to an all-time peak of 80.28 in 2006. The stock then was dragged lower by the bear market and fell back to 14 by 2008.
Since then, UFPI put down a long-term bottoming pattern and in 2011 began to work higher once again. 
UFPI's daily chart shows the stock climbing from around 40 back in October to 54 by November.
The stock put down a flat base with most of the work done above the rising 50-day moving average line, although in the past few sessions it slipped below that.
The breakout Thursday was powerful coming with a gap move and big volume.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) compliments the price action of the stock.
Looking out to 2014, the Street projects a 60% jump in profits to $3.12 a share. They may raise their estimates.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 17 based on 2014 projected net. TTD sees that as low making the stock a good value play.
Going out to the first quarter of 2014, earnings are expected to leap 58% to 41 cents a share from 26 cents the year before. 
The highest estimate on the Street is at 44 cents a share. TTD sees good chances for an upside earnings surprise.
The company has topped the Street the past four quarters.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 66. A protective stop can be placed near 53.
TTD rates UFPI a very good intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Average. The largest fund holder is Heartland Value Plus Fund with a 6.1% stake. The three star rated fund has held its position steady.
The second largest fund holder is T. Rowe Price Small Cap Value Fund with a 5% stake. The 3-star rated fund has held its position steady too.
UFPI has 19.9 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 99% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Very Bullish. Insiders have been getting stock options at $50 to $53 a share. However, they have not done any selling. That is bullish since they will only gain value if the price for the stock moves higher.
Currently, 3 analysts follow the stock,one has a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Universal Forest Products Inc. - (UFPI) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - VIPS - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CFX - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - LCI - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ETE - ABOVE AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 2
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Small list of shorts. Bears be selective. TTD's short from Wednesday was Republic Airways (RJET) at 8.99. Today, RJET has declined to 8.81 and is working well.
IPI, based in Denver, produces potash. Annual revenues: $373 million. IPI's stock breaks to the downside today with heavy volume. So far today, IPI is trading 3.1 million shares, four times its average daily volume of 814,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside. 
This year, analysts are forecasting a 28% drop in earnings.
IPI's stock fell sharply in the morning. It hit a low in the morning of 14.
The stock the staged a small rally, but in the afternoon rolled over again and hit an intraday low of 13.87.
The stock's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $15.41 to as low as $14.06.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 25,813 shares crossed the tape at $14.35.
That was down from the prior block trade at $15.30 the day before. The tape action showed aggressive institutional selling pressure.
IPI is the largest producer of potash in the U.S.The company has five active potash production facilities -- three in New Mexico and two in Utah
Analysts are forecasting a 90% plunge in profits in the first quarter to 2 cents a share from 20 cents a year ago. Overall, earnings for 2014 should fall 28% to 22 cents a share from 31 cents a year before.
IPI's chart shows the stock gapping lower in July. The stock rebounded and then trended sideways. Today, it gaps lower with volume picking up. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is trending lower indicating continued steady selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting IPI for a decline to 11. A protective stop can be placed near 15.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - IPI - AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
