Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, February 12, 2018 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Tuesday - February 13, 2018
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 5
Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Small list of breakouts and extremely selective.
Stock market - Bearish on a daily basis. Weekly shows Dow & S&P still bearish. However, Nasdaq edges into bullish zone. Long-term, monthly pattern still holding bullish.
Stock market trying to form bottom after recent sharp drop. One needs to be watchful of any breakdown and a second leg lower. Earnings reports will have a big impact in the weeks ahead.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bullish, |
Nasdaq - Bearish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bearish |
S&P 500 - Bearish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CHGG - ABOVE AVERAGE |
CHGG, based in Santa Clara, Ca., provides students with books and materials to help their education. Annual revenues" $254 million. CHGG's stock drives sharply higher Tuesday to breakout from its seven-week flat base.
So far today, CHGG is trading a heavy 8.8 million shares, 10 times its average daily volume of 829,000 shares.
The big breakout was triggered by strong earnings. TTD sees more on the upside.
TTD highlighted CHGG as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday. The strong came after the firm reported a big jump in quarterly earnings.
CHGG came in with net for the fourth quarter of 15 cents a share. That topped the consensus estimate on the Street at 13 cents a share.
CHGG's 10-minute chart shows the stock driving sharply higher in the morning and clearing its breakpoint line.
The stock surged to an intraday high of $19.96.
The stock then pulled back and then lifted to around $19 and trended sideways the rest of the day holding the bulk of its gain.
Tape Action
CHGG's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $16.36 in the prior session to as high as $19.72 Tuesday.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 87,150 shares crossed the tape at $17.50.
That was up from the prior block late on Monday at $16.36 on 73,559 shares.
Near the close a block of 116,724 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $19.15.
That actually came on a up tick from the prior trade in the sequence at $19.14 on 100 shares.
Business
CHGG provides services that help students study for college admission exams, find colleges, get better grades and test scores while in school.
The firm also helps students find internships that allow them to gain skills to help them enter the workforce after college.
The Company matches domestic and international students with colleges, universities and other academic institutions. It also sells eTextbooks and provides tutors.
Charts
CHGG's 12-month performance chart shows the stock soaring 155% versus a 16% gain for the stock market.
Insiders were recent buyers at $5 to $6 a share using stock options.
They were sellers at $14 to $17 a share.
CHGG's long-term chart shows the stock coming public back in late 2013 at $8.29 a share. The stock eventually dropped to an all-time low in early 2016 at $3.15, when the stock declined.
However, since then CHGG has been on a tear surging to $19.15 - a sixfold move.
CHGG's daily chart shows the stock forming a flat base around $17 earlier this year.
Tuesday, the stock blows out of the base on the good earnings with big volume.
The CCI momentum indicator (bottom of chart) is strongly bullish.
Earnings Outlook:
This year, analysts are forecasting 61% surge in net to 45 cents a share from 28 cents the year before.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 42. That is okay given the strong earnings outlook.
Looking out to 2009, the Street predicts a 57% leap in net to 71 cents a share from the anticipated 45 cents this year.
Quarterly earnings will be strong.
Net for the upcoming first quarter should climb 33% to 8 cents a share from 6 cents the year before.
The highest estimate on the Street is at 9 cents a share. The company topped the Street estimate the past 6 out of 7 quarters - with some the "beats" impressive.
Profits for the second quarter are projected to surge 83% to 11 cents a share from the 6 cents the year before. That is an acceleration in quarterly earnings growth.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CHGG for a move to $23.50 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near $17.
TTD rates CHGG a good intermediate-term play provided it meets earnings projections.
Suitability: Aggressive Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Extremely Bullish. CHGG has scored some big gains off its recent breakouts.
Probability - Earnings Response - Extremely Bullish. CHGG rose 10 times after the past 12 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Bullish. CHGG rose an average of 2.3% in February and 5% in March the past several years.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
12% |
12/13/2017 | 15.42 | 17.32 | 1/31/2018 |
16% |
7/13/2017 | 13.15 | 15.30 | 8/3/2017 |
74% |
4/26/2017 | 8.77 | 15.30 | 8/3/2017 |
14% | 11/10/2016 | 7.42 | 8.48 | 11/25/2016 |
41% | 7/8/2016 | 5.08 | 7.21 | 9/21/2016 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Chegg Inc. (CHGG) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HQY - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ATR - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - QLYS - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - EGAN - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 3
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Small list of shorts as stock market lifts. Bears be patient and selective.
TTD's short from the prior session was Abeona Therapeutics Inc. (ABEO) at $12.60. Tuesday, ABEO declines 0.70 to 11.90, a 5.6% drop for bears.
PDCO, based in St. Paul, Min., distributes dental and animal health products. Annual revenues: $5.6 billion. PDCO's stock falls sharply Tuesday cutting below key technical support.
TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, 5.6 million shares, four times its average daily volume of 1.2 million shares.
The company was named in investigation by the Federal Trade Commission for alleging that it had agreements with its competitors not to sell to "buying group." The company said it will defend its position.
PDCO's stock fell sharply in the morning touching an intraday low of $28.77.
the stock then rallied back to $31.49 in the early afternoon.
However, late in the day - after the close - the stock gapped lower to $30.32
That is very bearish.
Tape Action
PDCO's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see a key bearish trade late on Monday when a block of 81,987 shares (duplicated) crossed at $32.92.
That was down from the prior block at $33.15 on 46,504 shares.
Business
PDCO's dental products cover consumable dental products, equipment and software.
In addition it provides services to dentists, dental labs and other healthcare professionals in North America.
The company also sells animal health products and certain services.
Earnings:
Net for the fiscal year ending in April is expected to decline 10% to $2.11 a share from the $2.34 the year before.
Net for the upcoming fiscal third quarter ending in January is expected to drop 12% to 51 cents a share from the 58 cents the year before.
Charts:
PDCO's 12-month performance chart shows the stock falling 25% versus a 16% gain for the stock market.
Insiders have been light sellers recently at $42 to $36 a share.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting PDCO for a decline to $25 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $33.
Suitability: Average Bears.
TTD's special probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Bearish. PDCO rose 5 times after the past 12 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Slightly Bullish. PDCO rose an average of 0.3% in February and a big 1.4% in March the past few years.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PDCO - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.
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TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
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end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)