Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Thursday, February 14 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, February 11 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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TTD does not publish Friday. We resume Tuesday.
By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 9
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list shows several interesting plays. Bulls be selective. Stock market holds up trend.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011- 2012)
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ECPG - AVERAGE |
ECPG, based in San Diego, provides debt management and recovery solutions for consumers and property owners across a broad range of assets. Annual revenues: $535 million. ECPG's stock breaks out from a seven-week base today. The move carries close to a new all-time high.
TTD has noticed that recovery companies like ECPG and Portfolio Recovery (PRAA), a recent TTD breakout play are acting strong. PRAA jump 6.05 to 118.07 Thursday. Its breakpoint was 106.70.
So far today, ECPG is trading 250,754 shares. Its average daily volume is 215,000 shares.
ECPG's 10-minute chart shows the stock spiking higher in the morning. The stock then trended sideways the rest of the day. It held most of its gain for the session.
ECPG's tape action shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $31.10 to as high as $32.79.
A key bullish trade came when a block of 2,874 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $31.70. That was up from the prior block at $31.30.
ECPG provides debt management and recovery solutions for consumers and property owners across a broad range of assets.
Through its subsidiaries, ECPG purchases portfolios of consumer receivables from major banks, credit unions, and utility providers, and partners with individuals as they repay their obligations and work toward financial recovery.
Through its Propel Financial Services subsidiary, the company assists property owners who are delinquent on their property taxes by structuring affordable monthly payment plans.
ECPG uses analytics which provide significant cost advantages. They provide an operating model to conducting business ethically and in ways that support its consumers' financial recovery.
ECPG's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 38% versus a 14% gain for the S&P 500 index.
ECPG's long-term chart shows the stock coming public back in 2002 and trading around $1. The stock surged to a peak at $26.73 by 2004. However, it declined due in part to the bear market falling back to $2.62 in early 2009.
The stock has since made a remarkable recovery. It peaked in 2011 at 33.16. That is the all-time high. The stock is in position to top that and if it does it could bring in more buying from the new-high crowd.
ECPG's daily chart shows the stock spiking higher and breaking out from a 7-week base.
The stock shows a big widening of the daily spread (range from high to low). That is bullish showing ease of price movement.
The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an up trend and compliments the price action.
This year, analysts are forecasting a 16% increase in ECPG's earnings to $3.53 a share from $3.05 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of just 10. TTD sees that as low making ECPG a very good value play.
Going out to 2014, net is expected to climb to $4.06 a share, 15% improvement.
For the upcoming first quarter earnings are expected to rise 19% to 82 cents a share from 69 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 87 cents a share.
ECPG tends to top the consensus. The prior four quarters it surpassed the consensus estimate by one cent a share, two cents, 11 cents and 3 cents.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ECPG for a move to 40 off this breakout. The sector is strong and the stock could attract buying from value investors.
A protective stop can be placed near 29.80.
TTD rates ECPG an average intermediate-term play with low downside risk.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated Hennessy Focus Fund Investor with a 2.9% stake. It was a recent buyer of 144,029 shares.
Also, 5-star rated Homestead Small Company Stock Fund was a recent purchaser of 61,000 shares.
ECPG has 25 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 99% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Bearish. Insiders have been recent buyers between $10 and $14. They were recent sellers at $25 to $26. Six analysts follow the stock, 5 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Encore Capital Group Inc. - (ECPG) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - JCOM - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - VSI - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HGR - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - XYL - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 6
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks. Bears be selective. There are some interesting plays.
WTW, based in New York, provides weight control programs. Annual revenues: $1.8 billion. WTW's stock falls sharply today after the company lowered its earnings outlook for this year. So far today, WTW is trading a heavy 5.7 million shares, seven times its normal daily volume of 818,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
TTD highlighted WTW as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.
WTW's stock fell sharply in the morning. It hit an intraday low of 43.60. The stock then trended sideways the rest of the session.
WTW's tape action shows the stock under heavy institutional selling pressure.
A key bearish block came in the morning when a block of 31,631 shares crossed tape at 44.96. That was down from the prior block trade at $54.
WTW said it expects 2013 earnings of $3.50 to $4.00 a share. The current consensus earnings estimate on the Street is $4.75 a share for the year. The stock responded very bearishly to the news.
WTW is the largest provider of weight control programs in the world. The core of their business is weekly meetings, in which they present their scientifically designed program, incorporating group support and education about healthy eating patterns, behavior modification and physical activity.
WTW's chart shows the stock gapping lower on big volume. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is now extremely bullish.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting the stock for a decline to 38 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 46.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - WTW - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)