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Aggressive Investor Bullish- Go To TTD Quick Trade Setups (win rate 70%) - Wednesday, February 17 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend. |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Breakout list has several above average plays. Bulls can be venturesome. The stock market now looks to be rallying across a trading range.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PMTC - ABOVE AVERAGE |
PMTC, based in Needham, Ma., develops product software solutions that help companies design products, manage product information and their product development processes. Annual revenues: $956 million. PMTC's stock breaks out from two month flat base today. The move looks modest but the stock has cleared the base. Volume so far today is running at 1.5 million shares. PMTC's average daily volume is 1.4 million shares. 
TTD highlighted PMTC as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web Wednesday.
PMTC's 5-minute chart shows the stock spiking higher in the morning. A few minutes later it broke out clearing 17.28.
The stock later dribbled back to the breakpoint line, but was able to use that as technical support. That is very good action. Later in the day, PMTC moved higher.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big blocks. One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $16.96 to a peak of $17.44 in the morning. The price for the blocks than drifted lower. A bullish trade on the tape was a big block of 5,100 shares that crossed at $17.44. That was up from the prior block that crossed at $17.25. 
PMTC offers solutions in the product development market covering product lifecycle management, computer-aided design (CAD), computer-aided manufacturing (CAM) and computer-aided engineering (CAE) solutions.
In June 2009, the Company acquired Relex Software Corporation. During the fiscal year ended September 30, 2009, the Company acquired Synapsis Technology, Inc., a provider of environmental regulatory compliance solutions.
PMTC's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 85% compared with a 30% gain for the S&P 500 index. So, the stock has been performing well.
PMTC's long-term chart shows the stock getting dragged back from 22 in 2008 to 8 during the bear market. However, PMTC has since rallied strongly to 17. 
PMTC's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 12 to 17. The stock then put down a nice flat base bracketed between roughly 16 and 17.50. That is a tight base especially for a stock that has a 1.5 beta versus 1.0 for the stock market.
One can see there was a dry up of volume in the late stages of the basing work. That is bullish. The breakout today has only modest volume. It will be important for PMTC to show a follow through on today's breakout and a pick up in volume to confirm the breakout.
PMTC's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is modestly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has been trending higher overall for the past several months. That is good showing steady buying interest in the stock.
What attracts TTD to the stock is the potential for accelerating quarterly profits. Analysts expect net for the fiscal second quarter ending March 30 to climb 22%. The next quarter, the fiscal third, net should be up 57%.
Accelerating quarterly earnings is a strong driver to send a stock higher. We are seeing more of that potential as companies recover from weak results in the prior year.
The company is now benefiting from a good flow of orders.
Net for the fiscal year ending in September should climb 65% to 71 cents a share from 43 cents a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 24, which is low given the growth rate. Going out to fiscal 2011 ending in September, analysts look for a 30% jump in net to 92 cents a share.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting PMTC for a move to 22 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 15. TTD rates PMTC a very good intermediate-term play due to its strong earnings growth and reasonable valuation.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is 5-star rated CRM Mid Cap Value Fund with a 3.4% stake. It was a recent seller of 108,500 shares. A key buyer recently was Goldman Sachs Mid Cap Value Fund, 4-star rated, which purchased 726,941 shares. PMTC has 117.2 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were buyers using stock options. They then sold. The latest selling was around $16.90. Right now, 9 analysts follow the stock, 5 have a buy, up from 3 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
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TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Parametric Technology Corp. - (PMTC) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 10 | 0 | 4 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CPLA - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CAGC - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HD - BELOW AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - COHR- AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 3
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Small number of breakdown stocks today as market trades in tight range.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
VCLK, based in Westlake Village, Ca., sells targeted and measurable online advertising campaigns and programs for advertisers. Annual revenues: $545 million. VCLK's stock falls sharply today after the company lowered its forecast of first quarter earnings. So far today, the stock is trading 2.1 million shares. Its average daily volume is 1.4 million shares.
VCLK said earnings for the first quarter will be 10 to 11 cents a share. That is well below the 16 cents a share consensus on the Street. The lowest estimate was at 15 cents a share. So, VCLK's estimate was well below what the Street expected.
The news was very bearish. The stock did respond in a bearish way.
VCLK's stock fell sharply in the morning, but then staged a rally to erase the loss. However, the rest of the day it drifted lower.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the big block trades the past two days. One can see the price for the blocks declining from $9.30 to $8.65. The tape action indicated clear institutional selling pressure.
VCLK sells targeted and measurable online advertising campaigns and programs for advertisers.
The Company’s customers are primarily direct marketers, brand advertisers and the advertising agencies that service these groups.
The Company operates in four business segments: Media, Affiliate Marketing, Comparison Shopping & Search, and Technology.
This year, analysts were forecasting a 12% drop in net to 64 cents a share from 73 cents a year ago. With the weak first quarter coming, there is a good chance the forecast will be adjusted to show a larger earnings drop in 2010.
VCLK's chart shows the stock testing support at 9 for the past few months. Today, it cuts below the support level. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) has been bearish for several months. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is bearish too.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting VCLK for a decline to 6.50 within the next few months. A protective stop buy can be placed at 10.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
