Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Thursday, February 19, 2015
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Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Thursday, February 19, 2015 |
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Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Tuesday, February 17, 2015 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are
most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent. 
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 15
Overall Quality of Breakouts - AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list large with some good looking plays. Stock market holds up trend. Bulls be selective. Restaurant stocks doing well.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FRGI - ABOVE AVERAGE |
FRGI, based in Miami, operates casual restaurants called the Pollo Tropicaland Taco Cabana in the U.S. Annual revenues: $591 million. FRGI's stock breaks out today from a 10-week flat base. The breakout was triggered by strong fourth quarter earnings that topped the Street's estimate. 
So far today, FRGI is trading a heavy 1 million shares, triple its average daily volume of 298,000 shares.
FRGI's stock broke through its breakpoint line in the morning. However, it just trended sideways holding above the line until late in the afternoon. (see 10-minute chart)
The stock then drove sharply higher late in the day after the company checked in with strong profits for the fourth quarter.
FRGI closed the day on its high for the session which is bullish.
FRGI reported net for the fourth quarter was 34 cents a share, up from 20 cents a year ago.
The 34 cents topped the consensus estimate on the Street of 31 cents a share - which was also the highest estimate.
TTD has noted that when a company can top the highest estimate for the quarter, the stock has a good chance to move sharply higher over the next few weeks as analysts seek to raise estimates for upcoming quarters. 
FRGI's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks rising from $64.04 in the prior session to as high as $70 on Thursday.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 3,165 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $64.90.
That was up from the prior block trade at $64.04 on 6,546 shares late on Wednesday.
FRGI operates the Pollo Tropical and Taco Cabana restaurants. The Pollo Tropical restaurants offer tropical and Caribbean food.
The Taco Cabana restaurants offer fresh Tex-Mex and traditional Mexican food.
FRGI's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 40% versus a 17% gain in the stock market.
FRGI pushed strongly after the past three quarterly earnings reports. (see performance chart).
FRGI's long-term chart shows the stock advancing from $12.50 in 2012 to a peak at 53 by late 2013.
The stock then pulled back to around 36 in 2014. However, it has since been driving steadily higher. It remains hot!
FRGI's daily chart shows the stock advancing from 50 back in October to 64 by December.
The stock put down a flat base. A few sessions ago, FRGI attempted a breakout but faded back.
However, Thursday, the stock breaks out with a widening of the daily trading spread and a big expansion in volume.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has turned up. It was trending lower in December and then made a turn up in mid-January.
This year, analysts have been forecasting a 20% increase in FRGI's earnings to $1.60 a share from $1.33 the year before.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 41 based on projected 2015 net. That is high, especially for a restaurant stock. So, one needs to be watchful of the stock. Restaurant issues have been acting strong this months with several breaking out to the upside. 
Net for the upcoming first quarter is expected to rise a modest 13% to 37 cents a share from 33 cents a year ago.
One can see that FRGI has a good track record of topping the Street's quarterly earnings estimates. (see table)
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting FRGI for a run to 76 off this breakout.
A protective stop buy can be placed near 63 which is tight.
TTD rates FRGI more of a trading play due to the high valuation.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is the 5-star rated T. Rowe Price New Horizons Fund with a 7.9% stake.
The fund was a recent buyer of 343,516 shares.
Also, the Lord Abbett Developing Growth Fund was a recent buyer of 470,047 shares. The 5-star rated fund has a 2.2% stake.
FRGI has 26.4 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 98% of the stock and insiders 1%.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were just sellers in recent months. The latest selling was at $60 to $63.
Currently, 8 analysts follow the stock, 7 have a buy, the same as three months ago. FRGI's book value is $7.20.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Fiesta Restaurant Group Inc. - (FRGI) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BJS - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NCLH - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DIN - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CHKP - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 3
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of shorts today. Stock market continues to rally. Bears remain conservative. TTD's short from Wednesday was Dorman Products (DORM) at 45.30. It is trading at 44.88 and working well for bears.
GTS, based in San Juan, Puerto Rico, provides managed care and products and insurance. Annual revenues: $2.3 billion. GTS's stock falls sharply after reporting lower earnings for the fourth quarter. So far today, GTS is trading 638,984 shares, four times its average daily volume of 151,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside. 
TTD highlighted GTS as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.
GTS reported earnings declined to 98 cents a share from $2.41 a year ago.
GTS's stock fell sharply in the morning hitting an intraday low of 19.84 in the morning.
The stock then trended sideways around 20 unable to stage a significant comeback.
GTS's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $24.19 to as low as $20.65.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 26,722 shares crossed the tape at $21.10.
That was down sharply from the prior block at $24.12 on 10,409 shares.
GTS provides various managed care and related products in the commercial and Medicare markets in Puerto Rico.
The company operates in three segments: Managed Care, Life Insurance, and Property and Casualty Insurance.
This year, analysts are forecasting a 7% decline in earnings.
GTS's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower and cutting through key technical support with expanding volume.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting GTS for a decline 17 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 21.50.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - GTS - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
