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Aggressive Investors Bullish - Go To TTD Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch  List - Wednesday, February 24

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Aggressive Investor Bullish- Go To TTD Quick Trade Setups (win rate 70%) - Wednesday, February 24

Conservative Investors  Bullish (swing traders) - Go To TTD Bargain Trade Setups - Monday, February 22 - Weekly

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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks"


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Ticker Tape Digest

Wednesday - February 24, 2010


By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance

Bullish

Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns.

(See Performance)


Aggressive Investor Bullish-  "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit."

  (See Performance)


Conservative Investors  "Bargain Buy Trades"  (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets

 (See Performance)


Bearish

Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns

  (See Performance)


Conservative Bearish Investors  (swing traders).  "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend.

  (See Performance)

 The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long  These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.

  TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

Quote or chart

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.


  Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 4

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull side - Just a few breakout stocks today. Bulls be patient and more conservative now as stock market could retrace recent advance. The stock market appears to be in a trading range which could last awhile.

(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Neutral

Market (Daily) - NYSE  Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market  (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish


Today's Featured Breakout Stock

F5 Networks Inc. (FFIV) - 55.99, up 1.66 - Breakpoint 55.81

Nears 10-year High, Net to Rise 29% This Year, TTD Targets 68

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FFIV -  AVERAGE

  FFIV, based in Seattle, provides software and other networking products for security, optimization and availability of applications for any user. Annual revenues: $678 million. FFIV's stock breaks out from a six-week, cup-and-handle base today. The stock is nearing a 10-year high. The stock is a leader. So far today, FFIV is trading 1.1 million shares. Its average daily volume is 1.3 million shares.

  TTD highlighted FFIV recently as a stock to accumulate as a potential breakout.

  FFIV's 5-minute chart shows two breakpoint lines. TTD calls that a breakpoint zone.

  In the morning, FFIV pushed through the lower part of the zone and then in the afternoon the tape of the zone. That is impressive action.

  The  tape action in recent days shows some subtle accumulation.

  Back On Feb. 19, a big block of 100,000 shares crossed the tape at $55.12. That was up sharply from the prior big block that went off at $53.45. The tape action today shows a big block of 25,000 shares crossing at $55.10. So, the institutional buying today was good in the morning.

   FFIV’s core technology is hardware and software for application delivery networking. The products include ability for security, secure remote access, wide area network optimization and file virtualization.

  All of FFIV's products are systems that integrate its software with purpose-built hardware that incorporates commodity components.

 The Company’s BIG-Internet protocol products support a number of features and functions as software modules, including Global Traffic Manager, Link Controller, Application Security Manager and WebAccelerator. It also sells ASM, FirePass, WANJet and WebAccelerator as separate, stand-alone appliances.

  FFIV's performance chart for the past 12 months shows the stock appreciating 170% compared with a 40% gain in the S&P 500 index. The good performance, push to a new high and strong earnings makes the stock a leader.

  FFIV's long-term chart shows the stock working higher over the past few years. It is actually in position to make a 10-year high. It just needs to top $56.19. Today its high was 56.13.  

  FFIV's daily chart shows the stock climbing strongly from 35 to around 53. The stock attempted a breakout in January, but was dragged back due in part to weakness in the general stock market.

  The stock rallied to set itself  up for another breakout attempt. That came today!

  FFIV's volume on the breakout is just average. So, it will be important for the stock to follow through with volume in coming sessions.

  FFIV's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is very bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a strong up trend. It has already broken out to the upside. That could well be a lead signal that the breakout will work.

  FFIV's net for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30 should climb 29% to $1.53 a share from $1.19 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 34.

  Going out to fiscal 2011, analysts project a 21% gain in net to $1.85 a share from the anticipated $1.53 a share.

  For the upcoming quarters, net for the fiscal second quarter (March 31) should increase 27% and then in the fiscal third quarter climb 33%. That is a modest acceleration in quarterly earnings growth. Net for the fiscal second quarter should increase to 37 cents a share from 29 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 39 cents a share.

  TTD sees good chances for a modest upside surprise. The past four quarters, FFIV has topped the consensus estimate by 3 to 7 cents a share. The company should benefit from a revival in the economy.

  Strategy Opinion: FFIV's stock's breakout is good but a follow through will be important. TTD is targeting FFIV for a move to 68. A protective stop can be placed near 53.  TTD rates FFIV a good intermediate-term play.

  Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is Fidelity Contrafund with a 2.1% stake. The 5-star rated fund was a recent buyer of 449,179 shares. Another key buyer was 4-star rated American Century Heritage Fund which purchased 615,300 shares. FFIV has 79.5 million shares.

  Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders have been buyers using stock options. They have turned around and sold. The latest sells are around $50. Currently, 31 analysts follow the stock, 15 have a buy, down from 16 three months ago.   



  Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.

    


TTD's Breakout Profile Rating

F5 Networks Inc. - (FFIV)  

TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES    
Volume     YES
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term YES    
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success     YES
Fund Sponsorship YES    
Total Score 12 0 2

All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)


  


Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DLTR - ABOVE AVERAGE

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - VRML - AVERAGE


Conservative Investors Bearish (swing traders) - Go To TTD Bargain Short Trade Setups - Monday, February 22 - Weekly

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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 8

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.

Bear Side - Break down list expands a bit even though stock market rises. Bears be selective with stock market in a trading range.


List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)

  


Commentary on TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Stec Inc. (STEC) - 10.11, down 3.31

Cuts Outlook Sharply, TTD Sees Fall to 7

STEC, based in Santa Ana, Ca., makes custom memory solutions based on flash memory and dynamic random access memory technologies. STEC's stock falls sharply today on massive volume. The drop was triggered by a dismal forecast for the first quarter of a loss of 11 to 13 cents a share. That would compare with a profit of 12 cents a share a year ago. TTD see more on the downside due to this very bearish news.  

  So far today, STEC is trading a 32 million shares, nine times its normal daily volume of 3.5 million shares.

  The stock plunged in pre-market trading. It lifted slightly in the morning and then trended sideways unable to mount a rally.

  The bearish news on earnings stung the stock. The forecast of a first quarter loss of 11 to 13 cents a share was well below the consensus estimate of a profit of 30 cents a share. The lowest estimate on the Street was at a profit of 4 shares.

  The selloff so far is heavy and indicative of institutional flight from the stock.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows the big block trades the past few days. One can see the stock was under severe distribution a few days prior to the news.  A key trade was a big block of  72,800 shares that crossed on Feb. 19 at $13.41. That was down sharply from the prior block which went off at $14.37.

 STEC makes flash drives and memory cards used in sensitive and highly volatile environments and high-density DRAM modules.

 It offers a product line used by original equipment manufacturers.

 STEC offers both monolithic DRAM modules and DRAM modules based on its stacking technology. During the year ended December 31, 2008, the Company sold to some 329 customers, consisting of direct sales and sales through OEM distributors and contract manufacturers.

  This year, analysts were forecasting a 16% rise in net to $1.78 a share from $1.54 in 2009. That forecast will get cut.

  STEC's daily chart shows the stock with a gap drop today on heavy volume. The stock's accumulation - distribution line has been trending lower for months indicating the stock has been under heavy selling pressure leading up to today's price collapse.

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting the stock for a drop to 7 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 11.



TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)