Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of  Breakout and Leading Stock Charts - Friday, February 25

Daily - Bullish Investors  - Go To TTD Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch  List and Performance - Friday, February 25

Daily - Bullish Aggressive Investor - Go To TTD Quick Trade Setups and performance (74% winners) - Friday, February 25

Ticker Tape Digest

“Professional Report”

Friday - February 25, 2011

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

  Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

 The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

 1 - TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long - (Intermediate-term long plays)  these are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  2 -TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long - (Short-term long plays These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 3 - TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - (Long Term long plays.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  4 - TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.   

Ticker Tape Digest's Midsession Stock Market Video Show (Posted 12:30 to 1 p.m. NYSE Time) Go to TTD Stock Market Show For - February 25 Go to Shows for Latest Week: Monday - Tuesday - Wednesday - Thursday -  Friday (Best with Cable or DSL - High quality - Windows Media Video)

 Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 9

Overall Quality of Breakouts - AVERAGE

Stocks Screened - 8,300

 Bull side - Breakout list shows special situation stocks moving out. Market still remains vulnerable. Bulls must now be conservative and selective. Watch all stops. (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Neutral

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market  (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish 

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action - Friday - February 25

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  

(Go to Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011 - Update February 22)

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

PegaSystems Inc. (PEGA) - 40.12, up 2.12 - Breakpoint 38.16

Punches through Breakpoint Zone, TTD Targets 48

 PEGA, based in Cambridge, Mas. produces software to automate business processes. Annual revenues: $320 million. PEGA's stock breaks out today from a 10-week, cup-and-handle base. The stock hits a new all-time high topping the $40 peak it made back in 1997. The stock has come along way back and now is in position to push higher. So far today, PEGA is trading 181,454 shares. Its average daily volume is 151,000 shares.

  PEGA's 10-minute chart shows the stock pushing across its breakpoint in the morning.

  In the afternoon it put some distance between it and the breakpoint. The breakout constituted a push through a breakpoint zone (see daily chart).

   PEGA's tape action shows the recent big block trades.

  There was a key bearish trade on Wednesday when 43,817 shares crossed the tape at $36.84.

  However, since then the blocks have been ticking higher. Today, a key bullish trade took place when 5,000 shares crossed the tape at $39.75.

 PEGA's software enables firms to build, deploy, and change enterprise applications by capturing business objectives, automating programming, and automating work.

   The Company's products include PegaRULES Process Commander and Pegasystems SmartBPM Suite and Solution Frameworks. The Company offers services and support through its professional services group, customer support group, and its training services group.

  PEGA's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 20% versus a 9% gain for the S&P 500 index.

   PEGA's long-term chart shows the stock as a leader. It weathered the bear market well. Since late 2008, the stock has soared from 10 to 40. That spur was sparked by some big upside earnings surprises. Long-term the stock is breaking out from a cup-and-handle base.

  PEGA's daily chart shows a flat base setup after the stock climbed from 23 to 38. PEGA had a breakout in January, but it stalled. That  set up a breakpoint zone.

  Today's breakout looks good with a widening of the spread. However, volume is lacking. So one must look for a follow through.  

  The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend. It will be important to see that indicator turn up.

  PEGA's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is modestly bullish.

  PEGA will report fourth quarter net soon. The Street is forecasting a 137% jump to 38 cents a share from 16 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 48 cents a share. That means some see a big quarter.

  The prior quarter, PEGA surprised modestly on the upside by topping the consensus estimate by 2 cents a share, or by 8%

  Net for 2010 is expected to be down 6% to 80 cents a share from 85 cents a year ago.

  Looking out to 2011, analysts forecast an 49% jump in net to $1.19 a share from the anticipated 80 cents a share for 2010. That improvement in net could be the key driver to send the stock higher.

  Strategy Opinion:  TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 48. A protective stop can be placed at 37. TTD rates PEGA a good intermediate-term play with potential to surprise on the upside.

 Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated Baron Growth Retail Fund with a 4.2% stake. It was a recent seller of 44,900 shares. The largest fund buyer recently was 4-star rated LKCM Small Cap Equity Fund, which purchased 233,783.. PEGA has 37 million shares outstanding.

  Insider Activity: Slightly Bearish. Insider have been light sellers in recent months. The latest selling took pace at $39.04. Six analysts follow the stock, 4 have a buy, the same as three months ago.

Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

TTD’s Feature Stock Under Accumulation

(Trading strategy: Purchase of these stocks is done when either the stock is still in a base, or has emerged and is acting very bullish. Purchase while a stock still is basing should be a scale-in strategy with the final buying to be done on a breakout from a base. Buying of these stocks when they are trending higher can be done aggressively.)

United Therapeutics Inc. (UTHR) - 67.78

Set a Stop Buy at 68.50 to catch the Breakout

Profits to Jump 46% This Year, TTD targets 80 After a Breakout

   UTHR, based in Silver Spring, Md., is a biotech firm developing products for patients with chronic diseases. Annual revenues: $604 million. UTHR's stock is in a six-week flat base and poised to breakout at any time. The stock is a leader. A breakout will carry the stock to a new all-time high..UTHR is trading  407,861 shares so far today. Its average daily volume is 724,000 shares.

  UTHR's stock edged higher today peaking in the morning. It then trended sideways the rest of the day staying in a tight trading range.

    TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades.

  One can see the price of the blocks climbing from $66.80 to $67.80.

  A key bullish trade today was a big block of 25,000 shares crossing the tape at $67.80. That was up from the prior block trade at $67.64 which came on just 6,300 shares.

  The tape action showed aggressive institutional buying. That could be a good sign more institutional buying may come in and help drive the stock up and out of its base.

  UTHR's  principal therapeutic platforms include Prostacyclin Analogs, Phosphodiesterase Type 5 (PDE5) inhibitors, Monoclonal Antibodies and Glycobiology Antiviral Agents.

 Prostacyclin analogues are stable synthetic forms of prostacyclin. Its lead product is Remodulin (treprostinil) Injection (Remodulin) to be administered subcutaneously or intravenously for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension.

 The company’s PDE-5 inhibitor product is Adcirca (tadalafil) tablets (Adcirca), a once-daily oral therapy for the treatment of PAH.

 UTHR is developing the antibodies 3F8 MAb and 8H9 MAb to treat neuroblastoma and metastatic brain cancer.

  UTHR's 12-month performance chat shows the stock appreciating 25% versus a 12% gain for the S&P 500 index.

  UTHR's long-term chart shows the stock hitting a new high recently. It has rebounded strongly from its bear market low at $23.80 in late 2008. The push to a new high could bring in more buying on Monday, especially since UTHR has strong earnings prospects.

  UTHR's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 48 to 694 the past six months. That is a great run that showed the stock trending higher nicely above its rising 50-day moving average line.

  The stock's current base is flat and was formed after the stock broke out from a prior flat base. The pattern is called a base on top of a base.

 The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is slightly bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has shown some weakness in recent weeks. So, that sets up a caution flag.

  This year, analysts forecast a 46% jump in earnings to $2.75 a share from $1.88 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 24.

  TTD sees that as low making the stock an attractive for value-growth players.

   Looking out to 2012, Wall Street projects a 24% gain in net to $3.40 a share. They have been bumping up the projection.

  The company is benefiting from strong demand for its core products. It is also doing well from approval of several its products.

  Net for the upcoming first quarter should leap 100% to 64 cents a share from 32 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 83  cents a share. That shows some see a big quarter coming. TTD sees chances for an upside surprise.

  Net for the second quarter is projected to rise only 7% to 66 cents a share from 62 cents a year ago.

 Strategy Opinion: UTHR is a leader with strong earnings. TTD is targeting UTHR for a move to 80 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 65. TTD rates UTHR a good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.

  Sponsorship: Good. A key fundholder is 5-star rated Fidelity Contrafund with a 2.3% stake. It was a recent buyer of 260,000 shares.  The largest fund holder is 1-star rated Fidelity Magellan Fund with a 2.6% stake. The giant fund has held its position steady. UTHR has 56.9 million shares outstanding.

  Insider Activity:  Neutral. Insiders were buyers using stock options. They turned around and sold. The latest selling was at $67.74. Currently, 19 analysts follow the stock, 15 have a buy, up from 13 three months ago.   

Citrix Systems Inc. (CTXS) - 70.91

Set a Stop Buy at 72.15 to Catch the Breakout

Stock nears breakout, tape bullish. Net to rise 18% this year.

Peets Coffee & Tea Inc. (PEET) - 42.50

Set a Stop Buy at  43.20 to Catch the Breakout

Stock pushing toward breakpoint. Net to climb 20% This Year.

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 5

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks as stock market stages snap back rally.  Bears remain watchful. Potential for more on the downside.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Nutri-Systems Inc. (NTRI) - 14.05, down 6.15

Cuts Profit Outlook, TTD Sees Slide to 11

NTRI, based in Horsham, Pa., provides a weight management system via food packages. Annual revenues: $528 million. NTRI's stock gaps sharply lower today after the company cut its earnings forecast for the year and said it expected a loss. The move triggered some analysts to cut their rating on the stock. So far today, NTRI is trading 7.7 million shares, 15 times its normal daily volume of 503,000 shares.

 TTD highlighted NTRI as a short at our midsession show on the Web Friday.

  NTRI said it will show a loss for the first quarter of 30 to 35 cents a share. That would compare with a profit of 29 cents a share expected by the Street. So, the news was a shocking bearish development and the stock response very bearishly to the news.

  The company also said net for the year would be 40 to 50 cents a share. The Street was forecasting $1.32 a share.

  The stock gapped lower on the news and then trended sideways the rest of the day.

  NTRI's tape action shows the recent big blocks with the price for them most recently falling from $20.23 to as low as $14.09. A key bearish trade today was a block of 25,000 shares that crossed at $15, down from the prior block that crossed at $20.20.

  NTRI provides weight management system based on a low-calorie, portion-controlled, prepared meal program.

  The customers purchase monthly food packages containing a 28-day supply of breakfasts, lunches, dinners and desserts, which they supplement with fresh dairy, fruit, salad, vegetables and low-glycemic carbohydrate items.

  Most of the customers order on an auto-delivery basis in which the company sends a month’s food supply on an ongoing basis until notified by the customer to stop the shipments.

   NTRI's daily chart shows the stock with a big gap drop on heavy volume. The news came as a surprise. TTD sees potential for more selling from institutions that would want to flee the stock.

   Strategy Opinion:  TTD is targeting NTRI for a decline to 11 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 15.30.

TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest.

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)