Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Tuesday, February 26
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Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Tuesday, February 26 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market
rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs. 
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 3
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Below Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Small list of breakout stocks. Stock market remains in a consolidation pattern. Bulls be selective and conservative.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011- 2012)
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CBRL - AVERAGE |
CBRL, based in Lebanon, Ten., operates restaurants under the name Cracker Barrel Old Country Store. Annual revenues: $2.6 billion. CBRL's stock breaks out strongly from a 22-week, cup-and-handle base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. 
TTD highlighted CBRL as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday. 
CBRL is trading a heavy 1.2 million shares, six times its normal daily volume of 199,000 shares.
CBRL's 10-minute chart shows the stock gapping higher in the morning. It peaked at 75.45.
Afterwards it trended sideways the rest of the day holding the bulk of its gain.
CBRL reported net for the fiscal second quarter ended January 31 of $1.43 a share. That topped the consensus estimate of $1.24 a share and the highest estimate of $1.27 a share. The stock responded very bullishly to the news.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades. 
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $66.95 on Monday to as high as $73.78 on Tuesday.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 5,745 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $71.90. That was up from the prior block at $66.95.
CBRL uses and Old Country Store restaurant and retail concept.
The format of the stores consists of a rustic, old country-store design with a separate retail area offering decorative and functional items.
They include rocking chairs, holiday and seasonal gifts and toys, apparel, cookware and foods, including various old fashioned candies and jellies.
CBRL's 12-month performance shows the stock appreciating 28% versus a 9% gain for the S&P 500 index. One can see on the table a green bar in December showing heavy insider buying. Looks like they were right!
CBRL's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from 9 back in 2000 to a peak of $50 by early 2007. The stock then fell during the bear market hitting a low of 10 in late 2008. However, since then the stock has been on a tear pushing to a new high.
CBRL's daily chart shows the stock in a cup-and-handle base. The breakout is powerful coming with strong volume.
Of course the push higher was triggered by the strong net. It will be important for CBRL to show follow through action on the upside.
CBRL's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is trending higher.
For the fiscal year ending July of 2013, analysts are forecasting flat net of $4.63 a share.
TTD sees chances for the earnings outlook being lifted to a gain of 5% to 10%.
Profits for fiscal 2014 ending in July are projected by the Street to climb 14% to $5.28 a share from the current 2013 forecast of $4.63 shares.
Net for the upcoming fiscal third quarter ending April should rise 4% to 90 cents a share from 86 cents a year ago. 
Strategy Opinion: CBRL's breakout is technically impressive. However, TTD sees CBRL as a very conservative play. We are targeting the stock for a move to 78.
A protective stop can be placed near 69.
TTD rates CBRL just an average breakout play. The slow earnings growth outlook may be a drag on the stock. TTD sees CBRL more of a trading play.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The top three fund holders all have a 5-star rating. The largest fund holder is Allianz NFJ Small Cap Value Institutional Fund with a 3.3% stake. It was a recent buyer of 41,100 shares. It was the largest fund buyer recently.
CBRL has 23.7 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 61% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were recent buyers at 62.36 in December. They have not any selling this year.
Currently, nine analysts follow the stock, 3 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. - (CBRL) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 11 | 0 | 3 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AHS - BELOW AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HWY - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 8
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Good number of breakdown stocks that are breaking down nicely. Bears can be venturesome. Stock market remains in a consolidation phase. TTD's short from Monday was Avid Technology Inc. (AVID) at 6.84. Today, the stock is at 6.84 and not responding to the stock market rally. That is good for bears.
VVUS, based in Mountain View, Ca., is a biotech firm developing products to treat obesity and diabetes. Annual revenues: $41,000. The company has only minimal sales. It is still a developing firm. However, today, the stock falls sharply after reporting a wider loss for the fourth quarter. TTD sees more on the downside. 
TTD highlighted VVUS as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday.
VVUS came in with a fourth quarter loss of 56 cents a share compared with a loss of 13 cents a year ago.
The Street was expecting a loss of 44 cents a share. So, the loss was more than expected. The stock responded very bearishly to the news.
VVUS's stock moved lower in the morning. It hit an intraday low of 10.75 around noon. In the afternoon, the stock lifted slightly.
VVUS's tape action shows the recent big block trades.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when 103,528 shares (Duplicated) crossed the tape at $11.63. That was down sharply from the prior block at $12.41. The tape showed aggressive institutional selling pressure.
VVUS is developing products to meet obesity, diabetes and sexual health.
This year, analysts are forecasting VVUS will show a loss of $1.10 a share. For the first quarter, they expect a loss of 20 cents a share.
VVUS's chart shows the stock falling from 22 back in October to around 11. The stock then trended sideways. Today, it gaps lower with expanding volume. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is trending lower showing there is heavy selling taking place in the stock.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting VVUS for a decline to 8.30 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 12.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - VVUS - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
