Daily - Go to TTD's Chart scroller of Breakout Stocks - Tuesday, February 28, 2017
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Daily - Go to TTD's Chart scroller of Breakout Stocks - Tuesday, February 28, 2017 |
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Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, February 27, 2017 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are
most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent. 
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com. For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 7
Quality of Breakouts - BELOW AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list extremely selective. Bulls be conservative. Stock market appears due for a consolidation.
(Put mouse on chart to Nasdaq)
Environment for bulls: Neutral
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -ALB - AVERAGE |
ALB, based in Charlotte, N.C., makes special chemicals used by the petroleum, chemical and auto industries. Annual revenues: $3.5 billion. ALB's stock breaks out Tuesday from a seven-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. That is bullish. 
TTD highlighted ALB as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday.
The trigger for the breakout was a report of better than expected quarterly earnings.
So far today, ALB is trading a heavy 4.2 million shares, five times its average daily volume of 787,000 shares.
ALB's stock gapped higher in the morning to clear its breakpoint line (see 10-minute chart).
The stock climbed steadily reaching an intraday peak at $102.56 around noon.
ALB then trended sideways the rest of the day holding the bulk of its gain.
ALB reported fourth quarter earnings of 78 cents a share.
That topped the consensus estimate on the Street at $73 cents a share.
Tape Action
ALB's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $92.46 in the prior session to as high as $102.37.
A key bullish block came late on Monday when a block of 4,000 shares crossed the tape at $95.25.
That was up sharply from the prior block trade at $92.46 on 59,174 shares.
Another key bullish trade came in the early afternoon when a block of 4,900 shares crossed at $102.37.
That was up from the prior block at $99.07 on 5,294 shares.
However, near the close a massive block of 171,326 shares (duplicated) crossed at $101.51.
That came on a down tick from the prior trade at $101.52 on 300 shares. It would indicate some institutional profit taking.
Business
ALB produces specialty chemicals used by the petroleum refining, consumer electronics, energy storage, construction, automotive, steel and aerospace industries.
The company's performance chemicals consists of product categories, including Lithium, Performance Catalyst Solutions and Bromine.
ALB's Lithium business develops advanced materials for a range of industries.
Its main product lines in the refining area are clean fuels technologies, which is composed of hydroprocessing catalysts and heavy oil upgrading.
Charts
ALB's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 78% versus a 22% gain for the stock market.
Insiders have been buyers in recent months using stock options at $22 to $42 a share. They were sellers (see dark red bars on chart) at $82 to $90 a share.
ALB's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from $15.54 back in 2009 to a peak near $71.76 by 2011.
The stock then went into a long-term basing pattern.
It broke out from that in early 2016. It is now trending higher. 
ALB's daily chart shows the stock advancing from $75 back in September to a peak near $95 by January.
The stock put down a tight flat base above its 50-day moving average line.
The breakout - propelled by the earnings - comes with a gap move and heavy volume.
That is bullish.
ALB's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.
Earnings Outlook
This year, analysts are forecasting a 12% increase in net to $4 a share from $3.57 in 2016.
The stock sells with a price earnings ratio of 25.
Going out to 2018, they look for net to climb 16% to $4.66 a share from the anticipated $4 this year.
Net for the first quarter is expected to be down 15% to 95 cents a share from the $1.12 the year before.
The highest estimate on the Street is at $1 a share.
However, ALB does have a tendency to top Street consensus estimates. The past four quarters it topped the Street by 3 cents a share, 10 cents, 9 cents and 27 cents.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ALB for a move to $116 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near $95, just below its breakpoint line.
TTD rates ALB an average intermediate-term play with a lot depending on its earnings.
Suitability: Average Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance after a Breakout:
TTD's research shows that recently (see table) ALB has scored some nice gains off its breakouts. Its most recent breakouts remain in play. The seasonal pattern shows the stock tends to move higher from February through May.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance after Earnings:
ALB's stock has moved higher 6 out of the past 12 earnings reports - 50%. The stock tends to do its best in the first half of the year.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
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Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
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10% |
1/11/2017 | 92.21 | 101.51 | Still in play |
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18% |
11/29/2016 | 85.90 | 101.51 | Still in play |
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48% |
3/4/2016 | 58.24 | 86.35 | 7/15/2016 |
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7% |
5/2/2014 |
67.24 |
72.23 |
6/9/2014 |
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16% |
4/19/2011 | 60.47 | 70.55 |
5/27/2011 |
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28% |
9/30/2010 | 46.55 | 59.86 | 1/14/2011 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -EBIX - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - WTW - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -PRGX - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -WNEB - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 12
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Large list of shorts with many getting hit because of disappointing earnings. Bears can be venturesome.
TGT, based in Minneapolis, operates variety stores selling a wide assortment of products. Annual revenues: $70.4 billion. TGT's stock falls sharply Tuesday after reporting disappointing earnings for the quarter. TTD sees more on the downside. 
TTD highlighted TGT as a short at our midsession video show on the Web.
So far today, TGT is trading a heavy 45.3 million shares, nine times its average daily volume of 5.1 million shares. -
TGT came in with net for the fourth quarter of $1.56 a share, down form $2.32 a year before.
Net was below Street estimates. Revenues were down 4.3%. The company said it plans to lower prices.
TGT's stock fell sharply in the morning. The stock touched an intraday low of $57.30 in the morning.
The stock then lifted slightly and then trended sideways the rest of the day.
Tape Action
TGT's tape action shows the price for the blocks tumbling from $66.91 in the prior session to as low as $57.43 Tuesday.
A key bearish block came in the morning when a block of 100,000 shares crossed the tape at $58.45.
That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $66.91 on 198,568 shares.
Business
TGT sells clothes, household items, and electronics products.
It also sells food, dry grocery, dairy and frozen items.
The company's brands include: Archer Farms, Market Pantry, Threshold, Simply Balanced, Merona, up & up, Boots & Barkley, Room Essentials, Wine Cube, Circo, Smith & Hawken, Xhilaration, Embark, Ava & Viv, Spritz and Sonia Kashuk.
Earnings
Analysts have been forecasting a 5% increase in earnings to $5.29 for fiscal 2018 ending in January.
Net for the fiscal first quarter ending in January, profits are expected to be down 1% to $1.50 a share from $1.52 the year before.
Charts
TGT's daily chart shows the stock trending lower and then trying to form a bottom. However, Tuesday, it gaps lower with big volume. The CCI momentum indicator is very bearish.
TGT has only been able to rise once after its past four earnings reports. The stock has a tendency to move in anticipation of earnings whether they are favorable or unfavorable.
TGT's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 5% versus a 26% gain for the stock market. Insiders have been getting lots of stock options (green bars). They have bought with stock options between $33 and $58 a share. They sold around $67 to $81 a share in recent months.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting TGT for a decline to $50 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $61.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TGT - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
