Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, February 26, 2018 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Thursday - March 1, 2018
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 3
Quality of Breakouts - Below Average.
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Very few breakouts Thursday and the overall quality is low. Bulls be conservative.
Stock market - Bearish - major daily averages. Weekly indicators show Dow and S&P now bearish.
Monthly market averages still holding. Planned tariffs for steel and aluminum impact the market but stocks in that sector move up.
Market is in a consolidation. Bulls be conservative and wait for a tightening up of the trading range and reduction in volatility.
Any break below near-term support of the daily trading range of this year would be extremely bearish.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bullish, |
Nasdaq - Bearish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bearish |
S&P 500 - Bearish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BXG - AVERAGE |
BXG, based in Boca Raton, Fla., is a marketing firm working in the vacation industry. Annual revenues: $663 million. BXG, bucks the stock market's big drop, and moves higher edging out from a six-week, cup-and-handle base.
So far today, BXG is trading 87,131 shares. Its average daily volume is 91,000 shares.
The company will report year end 2017 earnings March 8.
BXG's stock moved steadily higher in the morning and cleared its breakpoint line.
However, in the early afternoon it fell back as the stock market came under heavy selling pressure. Then late in the day BXG was able to just get over its breakpoint.
BXG was one of the few breakouts Thursday.
Tape Action
BXG's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $19.08 in the morning to a peak at $20.16 by midday.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 500 shares crossed the tape at $19.16.
That was up from the prior block at $19.08 on 400 shares.
The stock finished strong.
A block of 2,293 shares (duplicated) crossed at $19.92.
That was up sharply from the prior block at $19.67 on 1,012 shares.
Business
BXG was formerly known as Bluegreen Corporation.
The company is a sales marketing and management company for the vacation ownership industry.
The company's resort network includes 43 Club Resorts and 24 Club Associate Resorts.
BXG sells and manages vacation ownership interests in resorts generally located in drive-to vacation destinations.
They are either developed or acquired by the Company or developed and owned by others in which case the Company earns fees for providing its services.
Charts
BXG's six-month performance chart shows the stock gaining 53% versus a gain of 13% for the stock market.
The stock has been an outstanding initial offering from November.
BXG's long-term chart only goes back to November and shows the stock surging higher.
BXG's daily chart shows the stock climbing from $13 back in November to a peak at $19.88 by January.
The stock then put down a classic cup-and-handle base.
The breakout just clears the base, but is good action considering the big drop in the stock market.
The CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.
Earnings Outlook:
Earnings for 2017 will be reported next Thursday. The Street is predicting net of $1.06 a share.
That would give the stock a price-earnings ratio of 18, TTD sees that as reasonable.
Net for the fourth quarter should com in at 26 cents a share. The highest estimate on the Street is at 61 cents a share - the lowest at 8 cents. So, the three analysts following the stock are poles apart.
Looking out to 2018, the Street predicts a 17% increase in net to $1.23 a share from the anticipated $1.6 for 2017.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting BXG for a move to $24 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near $18.50.
Intermediate-Term Rating: Average.
Suitability: Average Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Bullish - BXG has scored just a modest gains off its recent breakout.
Probability - Earnings Response - Neutral. Not available.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Bullish - BXG rose an average of 3% in March this year. The stock came public in November.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
14% |
12/26/17 |
17.16 |
19.66 |
1/22/2018 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Bluegreen Vacations Corp. (BXG) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AXGN - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ILG - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 11
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Large List of shorts Thursday. Bulls can be venturesome with damaged stocks.
USCR, based in Euless, Tex., produces ready-mixed concrete in the U.S. Annual revenues: $1.2 billion. USCR's stock falls sharply Thursday and undercuts key technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.
USCR's drop was due to disappointing earnings.
So far today, USCR is trading 993,793 shares, triple its average daily volume of 289,000 shares.
USCR came in with fourth quarter net of 50 cents a share. That was well below the 87 cents expected by the Street. It was also below the lowest estimate at 75 cents a share.
So, the miss was very crucial.
USCR's stock gapped lower in the morning to its intraday low of $68.25.
The stock staged an impressive rebound back to $73.85.
However, it then gave ground steadily the rest of the day.
Tape Action
USCR's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $74 in the prior session to as low as $68.85.
A key bearish trade came late on Wednesday when a block of 13,864 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $72.75.
That was down from the prior block trade at $74 on 2,900 shares.
Business
USCR produces ready-mixed concrete and aggregates. The ready-mixed concrete goes to customers' job sites.
The aggregate products cover crushed stone, sand and gravel.
The Company' other products include its building materials stores, hauling operations, aggregates distribution terminals, lime slurry, brokered product sales, a recycled aggregates operation, and concrete blocks.
Earnings:
This year, analysts have been forecasting a 65% jump in net to $5.49 a share. That estimate should come down.
Net for the first quarter is projected to jump 49% to 82 cents a share from 55 cents the year before.
Charts:
USCR's daily chart shows the stock tending lower in recent sessions. Thursday, it cuts below key technical support with big volume.
USCR's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 4% versus a 12% gain for the stock market.
Insiders were buyers late last year at $22 a share. They were sellers the months afterwards at $74 to $83.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting USCR for a decline to $57 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $73.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's special probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish USCR rose 6 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Bullish. USCR rose an average of 1.3% in March and 2.9% in April the past several years.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - USCR - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.
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TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)