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Aggressive Investors Bullish - Go To TTD Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch  List - Monday, March 2

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Conservative Investors  Bullish (swing traders) - Go To TTD Bargain Trade Setups - Monday, March 1 - Weekly

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Ticker Tape Digest

Tuesday - March 2, 2010


By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance

Bullish

Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns.

(See Performance)


Aggressive Investor Bullish-  "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit."

  (See Performance)


Conservative Investors  "Bargain Buy Trades"  (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets

 (See Performance)


Bearish

Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns

  (See Performance)


Conservative Bearish Investors  (swing traders).  "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend.

  (See Performance)

 The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long  These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.

  TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

Quote or chart

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.


   Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 18

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull side - Good number of breakouts today even though stock market weakened late in the day. Bulls be aggressive. The market action would suggests allocation money is moving into stocks.

(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Neutral

Market (Daily) - NYSE  Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market  (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish


Today's Featured Breakout Stock

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (GMCR) - 88.85, up 5.24 - Breakpoint 85.76

Hits New High, Profits to Soar 77% in Fiscal 2010, TTD Targets 110

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - GMCR - ABOVE AVERAGE

  GMCR, based in Waterbury, Vt., makes specialty coffee products. Annual revenues: $955 million. GMCR's stock breaks out from a nine-week, flat base today with a good expansion in volume. The stock is one of the top performing issues in the market. So far today, GMCR is trading 3.8 million shares, almost four times its normal daily volume.

  GMCR's push to a new high could bring in more buying on Wednesday from the new-high crowd because the stock is a leader.

  GMCR's 5-minute chart shows the stock breaking out in the morning with intraday expansion in volume. The stock continued to work higher throughout the session.

  GMCR's pattern intraday after the breakout was very good showing the stock was attracting more buying

   GMCR's tape action shows a good pick up in institutional buying starting in the morning. A key trade was a big block of 11,676 shares that crossed in the morning at $88.39. That was up sharply from the prior block traded that crossed at $87.70.   

  GMCR sells over 200 whole bean and ground coffee selections, cocoa, teas and coffees in K-Cup portion packs, Keurig single-cup brewers, and other accessories.

  The Company operates in two business segments: Specialty Coffee business and Keurig business unit.  As of November 13, the Company acquired the Timothy’s World Coffee brand and the licensed Emeril’s brand.

  GMCR's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 255% versus a 55% rise in the S&P 500 index.

   GMCR is one of the top performing growth stocks.

   GMCR's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from 8 in 2006 to 87, an elevenfold move. The stock weathered the bear market well.   

  Near-term, GMCR's daily chart shows the breakout today coming with a widening of the spread (range from high to low). That is very bullish. Also, volume increases nicely.

  The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is neutral.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is at a new peak and confirms the breakout in the price of the stock.

  The only concern is that the breakout in late January did not work. So, investors still need to be watchful.

  This fiscal year ending September 30 analysts forecast a 77% jump in GMCR's net to $2.04 a share from $1.15 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 43. That is okay given the current growth rate.

  Going out to fiscal 2011, GMCR's net is projected to increase 40% to $2.85 a share. from the anticipated $2.04.

 GMCR's net for the fiscal second quarter ending March 31 is expected to jump 79% to 60 cents a share from 33 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 52 cents a share. TTD sees chances for a mild upside surprise with earnings. The past four quarters, GMCR has topped the consensus estimate. However, one does need to be watchful of the stock's reaction to the earnings news.

  Net for the fiscal third quarter ending June 30 should rise 58% to 57 cents a share from 36 cents a year ago.

  Strategy Opinion: GMCR's breakout looks solid today. It will be important for it to follow through. TTD is targeting GMCR for a move to 110. A protective stop can be placed near 82. TTD rates GMCR a very good intermediate-term play provided earnings remain on target. If the company makes any good acquisitions, the stock could do very well.

  Sponsorship: Very Good. One of the largest buyers recently was 3-star rated Calamos Growth Fund which picked up 225,000 shares. It is the second largest holder with a 1.2% stake. The largest fund holder is 3-star rated Fidelity Growth Company Fund with a big 5.1% stake. GMCR has 43.7 million shares outstanding.   

  Insider Activity: Neutral. Not much activity lately. Currently, 10 analysts follow the stock, 5 have a buy, up from 4 three months ago.


  


  Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.

    


TTD's Breakout Profile Rating

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc.- (GMCR)  

TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES    
Volume YES    
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term YES    
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success     YES
Fund Sponsorship YES    
Total Score 13 0 1

All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)


  


Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CXO -  ABOVE AVERAGE

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - GIVN -  AVERAGE

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DBRN -  AVERAGE

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ROSE -  AVERAGE


Conservative Investors Bearish (swing traders) - Go To TTD Bargain Short Trade Setups - Monday, March 1 - Weekly

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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 2

Stocks Screened - 8,2007

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.

Bear Side - Very few breakdown stocks today versus many breakouts. Bears be very selective as stock market rallies across trading range. TTD's short from Monday was Shanda Games Ltd. (GAME) - 6.93, down 1.34. Today, the stock is trading at 6.46 and working very well for bears.


List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)

  


Commentary on TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Arena Resources Inc. (ARD) - 36.20, down 6.49

Earnings Disappoint, TTD Sees Decline to 30

  ARD, based in Tulsa, develops oil and gas from its properties. Annual revenues: $117 million. ARD's stock falls sharply today after the company reported disappointing earnings for the fourth quarter. The drop comes on heavy volume of 4 million shares, 11 times its normal daily volume of 382,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.

  ARD reported earnings for the fourth quarter declined to 24 cents a share from 35 cents a year ago.

  That was a big bearish surprise. The consensus estimate on the Street was at 35 cents a share. So, results well below expectations. Also, the lowest estimate on the Street was at 26 cents a share. The 24 cents reported was below even that.

  ARD's stock fell sharply in the morning. It touched a bottom at 35.82 in early in the afternoon. It then trended sideways in the afternoon.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks falling from $41.43 to $36.83. The tape action showed fairly consistent institutional selling pressure.

 ARD blamed the lower earnings on higher costs. Revenues for the quarter increased 28%. Total costs for the quarter doubled due to higher production costs and losses on oil derivatives.

   The Company owns interests in oil and gas properties located in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas and New Mexico. It has a portfolio of oil and natural gas reserves, with 85% of its proved reserves consisting of oil and 15% natural gas.

  Wall Street was forecasting a 62% increase in net for this year to $1.94 a share. Those estimates could come down.

  ARD's chart shows the big drop in the stock. The stock's action prior to the fall did not give much of hint of a big problem.

 Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ARD for a decline to 30 within the next few months, or sooner. TTD sees the stock as a trading short.



TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)