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Ticker Tape Digest

Tuesday - March 3, 2009


                                          By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

Quote or chart

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.


Total Buy Breakouts today - 2

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull's Strategy -  Just 2 breakouts again today. Stock market starting to stabilize after recent big selloff. However, it has yet to turn up. Bulls remain conservative and patient and opportunity will come.

 (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Unfavorable

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market (Weekly) -NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market  (Monthly) NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish


Today's Feature Breakout Stock

Autozone Inc. (AZO) - 151.54, up 11.51 - Breakpoint 146.10

Profits Top Street Estimates, TTD Targets 180

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AZO -  AVERAGE

   AZO, based in Memphis, Ten., is the largest specialty retailer of automotive parts and accessories to do-it-yourself individuals and professional installers. Annual revenues: $6.5 billion. AZO breaks out today from a six-month, double-bottom base and hits a new high. The trigger for the move was a report of better than earnings for the fiscal second quarter ended February 28. The move carries AZO to a new all-time high.

  AZO's stock gapped higher in the morning. It peaked around mid morning and then coasted the rest of the day. Trading so far today is running at 5.9 million shares, four times its normal daily volume of 1.5 million shares.

  TTD's clip of the tape highlights a big block of 10,000 shares crossing on a modest up tick to $154.97 from the prior trade at $154.94.

  TTD highlighted AZO at our midsession show on the Web. The stock was also featured in TTD's February 20 Pro Report.

  The push to a new high could well attract more buying. Other auto parts stocks are doing well too. The talk is there business could pick up due to people keeping their cars longer.

    AZO has 4,092 stores in the U.S. and 148 in Mexico. The company operates its commercial program out of 2,236 of its stores, offering delivery of parts to local, regional, and national repair garages, dealers, and service stations. The firm also sells ALLDATA automotive diagnostic and repair software.

  TTD's performance chart shows AZO's stock appreciating 28% the past 12 months. That easily outperforms the 42% drop in the S&P 500 index during the same time.

  AZO's long-term chart is impressive. The stock has soared from 28 in 2001 to its peak of 146. It is now breaking out from a long-term basing formation.

  TTD's daily chart shows AZO's gap breakout move today on big volume.

  AZO breaks out from its near-term flat base and longer "W" or double-bottom base. The stock had a breakout a few session ago intraday, but fell back.. The stock looks stronger as it reemerges with the support of strong earnings.

   AZO's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is bullish. It broke out several sessions ago, but then pulled back. The AD line indicates there is good buying taking place in the stock.

  AZO is showing better than expected earnings growth.

 Net for the fiscal second quarter came in up 21% to $2.03 a share against $1.67 a share a year ago. The $2.03 topped the consensus estimate on the Street of $1.85 and the highest estimate at $2. TTD has noted that when a  company can report profits higher than all quarterly estimates, it could move sharply higher and continue higher for a few weeks as analysts upgrade and adjust their earnings forecasts.

 The prior quarter, AZO topped the consensus estimate by 4 cents a share, or by 2%. TTD said it is Feb. 20 report that there were chances for a modest upside surprise. So, we were surprised because the net was more than "modest."

 Analysts look for net for the fiscal year ending August 30 to increase 8% to $10.87 from $10.04 a year ago. TTD see that estimate being boosted.

 The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of  13 which is reasonable considering the earnings growth rate. Looking out to fiscal 2010. the Street is forecasting a 10% gain in net to $11.96 a share.

  Strategy Opinion: AZO is one of the few breakouts today. TTD suggests scaling into the stock due to the bearish general stock market. As we said on Feb. 20, AZO's earnings growth is modest, but could surprise. It did just that!

 TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 180, up from our prior target of 175. We see AZO as more of a trading play and would look to take profits. A protective stop can be placed near 145 and should be honored. TTD rates AZO an average intermediate-term play.

  Sponsorship: Very Good. A large holder is 4-star rated Fidelity Low-Priced Stock Fund with a 1.7% stake. It has held its position steady. A key buyer was 4-star rated Brandywine Blue Fund which picked up 483,000 shares. AZO has 57 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 12 million shares.

  Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were light buyers of the stock in recent months. Currently, 18 analysts follow the stock, 7 have a buy, down from 8 three months ago.



                     Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.

  


TTD's Profile Rating

Autozone Inc. - (AZO)

TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES    
Volume Expansion YES  
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term YES    
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term     YES
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success     YES
Fund Sponsorship YES    
Total Score 12 0 2

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.


Charts of Breakout Stocks  


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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 6 

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Favorable.

Bear Side -  Small list of breakdown stocks today. Stock market remains in down trend. Bears continue to be aggressive.


List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)


TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Sina Corp. (SINA) - 19.36, off 0.88

Stock Hits 4-Year Low, TTD Targets Slide to 15

  SINA, based in China, is internet web site that generates advertising revenues: Annual revenues: $340 million. SINA's stock falls today undercutting key support and making a 4-year low. Earnings for the fourth quarter will be reported on March 11. They should be up, but the stock is acting very weak. TTD sees more on the downside.

  SINA was featured at TTD's midsession show on the Web.

  So far today, the stock is trading 1.2 million shares. Its average daily volume is 1.5 million shares.

  SINA moved lower in the morning, hitting an intraday bottom around noon. It lifted in the afternoon.

  TTD's clip shows a big block of 12,400 shares crossing in the morning at $18.92. The trade came within a sequence started by a down tick from $18.93. TTD sees the tape action as modestly bearish.

 SINA is one of the most influential Internet media companies in China because of its large user base and substantial Web traffic.

 The company gets about 70% of its revenue (excluding the Focus Media acquisition) from online advertising. The rest comes from wireless value-added services. Focus Media's core business will contribute about 58% of total sales for the combined business after the deal.

  The Street is forecasting a 21% increase in net this year to $1.74 a share from an expected $1.44 for 2008. The profit outlook is up, but the rate of earnings growth is slowing.

  TTD's daily chart of SINA shows the stock in a down trend and trying to find a bottom around 20. However, today, the stock breaks below key support. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is weakening again.

  TTD sees SINA as a trading short. We are targeting the stock for a move down to 15 within the next few months, or sooner.



TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)