Aggressive Investors Bullish - Go To TTD Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch List - Thursday, March 4
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Aggressive Investors Bullish - Go To TTD Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch List - Thursday, March 4 |
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Aggressive Investor Bullish- Go To TTD Quick Trade Setups (win rate 70%) - Thursday, March 4 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend. |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Small number of breakouts today and very selective. Bulls be watchful. The market action would suggests allocation money is moving into stocks. Many recent breakouts doing well.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SXCI - ABOVE AVERAGE |
SXCI, based in Lisle, Il., provides pharmacy benefit management services. Annual revenues: $1.3 billion. SXCI's stock drives sharply higher today and breaks out from an 11-week base. The catalyst for the move was a report of strong quarterly earnings. So far today, SXCI is trading 1.5 million shares, eight times its normal daily volume of 183,000 shares. 
TTD highlighted SXCI as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web.
SXCI's 5-minute chart shows the stock streaking higher in the morning and clearing the top of its base. The stock then added to its gain in the afternoon. Notice the push through the breakpoint came with a strong pick up in intraday volume.
SXCI reported earnings for the fourth quarter jumped 145% to 49 cents a share from 20 cents a year ago. The 52 cents topped the highest estimate on the Street of 41 cents a share.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big blocks. One can see some heavy institutional buying going on early in the day when two block of over 10,000 shares traded at $51.20. The price for the block trades eventually hit 57 in the morning sequence of trading.
The tape action indicated very good institutional buying interest.
SXCI provides pharmacy benefit management services and healthcare IT solutions to the healthcare benefit management industry.
The company’s product offerings and solutions combine a range of PBM software applications, application service provider processing and pharmacy benefit management services, and professional services designed for the pharmaceutical supply chain, such as pharmacy benefit managers, managed care organizations, self-insured employer groups and retail pharmacies.
SXCI's PBM services include electronic point-of-sale pharmacy claims management, retail pharmacy network management, mail service pharmacy claims management and Medicare Part D services.
SXCI's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 200% compared with a 52% gain in the S&P 500 index. The stock is a leader and making new highs
SXCI's long-term chart shows the stock weathering the bear market of late 2007 and 2008 well. It is now in a strong up trend. 
SXCI's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 20 to 55. The subsequent flat base showed the stock doing most of its work in the lower part of the base. In general, that is not bullish. However, today's blow out of the base is extremely impressive.
No doubt the big earnings and bullish forecast for 2010 were a big factor.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has turned up nicely and shows good buying and no unusual selling during the basing work.
For 2010, SXCI is forecasting net of $1.92 to $2 a share. That compares with the consensus estimate on the Street of $1.94 a share. Revenues are expected to rise to $1.9 to $2 billion. That compares with Street projections of $1.84 billion.
SXCI's net for the upcoming first quarter should rise 18% to 45 cents a share from 38 cents a year ago. The company is continuing to get good contracts.
Strategy Opinion: SXCI's breakout is powerful. The stock is extended near-term. TTD suggests a scale-in strategy with a view to averaging up in price. TTD is targeting SXCI for a move to 66 within the next few months. A protective stop buy can be placed near 54. TTD rates SXCI a very good intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated T. Rowe Price New Horizons Fund with a 2% stake. It was a recent buyer of 263,000 shares. Also, 5-star rated Fidelity Canada Fund has a 1.9% stake. SXCI has 30 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Slightly Bearish. Insiders have been steady sellers of the stock. The latest selling was around $51. Right now, 20 analysts follow the stock, 11 have a buy, up from 9 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
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TTD's Breakout Profile Rating SXC Health Solutions Corp. - (SXCI) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - KWR - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TGT - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DDS - BELOW AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CISG - ABOVE AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 2
Stocks Screened - 8,2007
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Very few breakdown stocks today. Bears be patient and selective. TTD's featured breakdown stock on Wednesday was VisionChina Media Inc. (VISN) - 5.11, down 3.09. Today, it is trading at 5.10
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
AVY, based in Padadena, Ca., makes office products such as tickets, tags, labels and other converted products. Annual revenues: $6 billion. AVY's stock gaps lower today in heavy volume. The stock was downgraded by Merrill Lynch. So far today, AVY is trading 2 million shares. Its average daily volume is 1.7 million shares. 
AVY's stock gapped lower at the opening. It hit a bottom at 30.22 in the morning. The stock then lifted slightly and trended sideways. Merrill lowered its rating on the stock to neutral from a buy based in part on valuation.
The recent big block trades in AVY show the stock working down in price from $31.75 to $30.30. A key trade was a big block of 68,600 shares that crossed at $30.45. That was down sharply from the prior big block trade at $31.43.
AVY makes labels . It also produces binders, organizing systems, markers, fasteners, business forms, as well as tickets, tags, radio-frequency identification inlays and labels, and imprinting equipment for retail and apparel manufacturers.
The company operates in three segments: Pressure-sensitive Materials, Retail Information Services and Office and Consumer Products. It has other specialty operations that produce specialty tapes and highly engineered labels including RFID inlays and labels, and other converted products.
This year analysts forecast a 32% increase in AVY's net to $2.61 a share from $1.97 a share a year ago.
Although the earnings outlook appears good, the stock's chart shows AVY working lower. The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is now bearish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is trending lower.
Strategy Opinion: TTD sees AVY as a trading short with a downside target of 25. A protective stop buy can be placed near 32.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
