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Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 5 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are
most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 4
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Small number of breakouts. Bulls must now be watchful and selective. Stock market still holds in up trend but momentum has turned bearish on a daily basis.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MANH - AVERAGE |
MANH, based in Atlanta, Ga., provides software to track
supply patterns for businesses. Annual revenues: $329 million. MANH's
stock drives sharply higher today on expanding volume. The stock is one of only a few breakouts today as the stock declines broadly. The move sends the stock breaking out from a six-week flat base and to a new 11-year high. 
So far today, MANH is trading 378,213 shares, double its normal daily volume of 160,000 shares.
TTD highlighted MANH as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Monday 
MANH drove sharply higher in the morning. It peaked at 39.70. It then rested. The stock then edged higher the rest of the day hitting an intraday high of 49.13.
MANH's tape action shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks jumping in recent day from $46.98 to $48.50.
The stock traded a block of 2,134 shares (duplicated) on Monday morning. The block went off at $47. Then later a block crossed at $48.50 on 2,300 shares.
The tape action showed some aggressive institutional buying in MANH during the day.
MANH makes software to
improve supply chain effectiveness.
The company's solutions enhance distribution efficiencies through the integration of supply chain constituents, including manufacturers, distributors, retailers, suppliers, transportation providers and end consumers.
The solutions consist of software; services, including design, configuration, implementation, and training services, plus customer support and software upgrades; and hardware.
MANH's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 50% versus a 5% gain for the S&P 500 index. The chart also shows some steady insider selling.
MANH's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from a bear market low of 13 in 2008 to 48 - more than a triple. The stock's push to a multi-year high could bring in more buying on Tuesday from the new-high crowd.
MANH's daily chart shows the stock advancing from 32 back in October to 47 in December. The stock then formed a cup-and-handle base.
The handle portion of the base has migrated into a well-formed flat base. The breakout today is ideal coming with a widening of the daily trading spread (range from high to low) and an expansion in volume.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has been trending sideways. It is neutral when related to the price action. It shows clearly no unusual distribution during the basing work.
Analysts expect strong profits from MANH for the first quarter ending in March. They are forecasting a 33% jump in net to 44 cents a share from 33 cents a year ago. The highest estimate is at 44 cents. TTD sees good chances for an upside surprise. The past three quarters MANH topped the consensus by 9 cents a share, 16 cents and 19 cents.
Looking out to 2012, the Street is currently forecasting a 13% jump in net to $2.24 a share from $1.98 the year before. Going out to 2013, the Street looks for a 17% gain in net to $2.63 a share from the anticipated $2.24 for 2012. 
Strategy Opinion: MANH's breakout comes with a lot of power and strong volume. TTD is targeting MANH for a move to 58 within the next few months, or sooner.
A protective stop can be placed near 45. TTD rates MANH an average intermediate-term play provided earnings remain on course.
Sponsorship: Below Average. The top fund holder is Buffalo Small Cap Fund with a 6.3% stake. The 3-star rated fund was a recent seller of 494,350 shares. Also, 4-star rated Artisan Small Cap Value Investor Fund was a recent seller of 356,473 shares. The largest buyer was 3-star rated Met Invt Ser Invesco Small Cap Growth Fund which picked up 14,228 shares. MANH has 20.6 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 93% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Bearish. Insiders were recent buyers around $28 to $22 a share. They sold around $47. Just 2 analysts follow the stock, one has a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers
Insider Activity - Buying in Green - Selling in Red
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Manhattan Associates Inc. - (MANH |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 12 | 1 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TESS - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TCO - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - STAG - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 11
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Large number of breakdown stocks today. Stock market losing upside momentum. Bears be very alert now for chances. Today, coal and steel stocks breakdown.
BTU, based in St. Louis, produces coal from 28 coal mining operations in the U.S. and Australia. Annual revenues: $8 billion. BTU's stock declines sharply on Monday undercutting key technical support. BTU is part of a very bearish acting coal sector today. So far today, BTU is trading a heavy 7.1 million shares. Its average daily volume is 4.9 million shares. 
TTD highlighted BTU as a breakdown stock at our midsession video show on the Web Monday.
BTU's stock moved lower in the morning. It hit an intraday low around midday at 31.10. The stock then trended sideways in the afternoon.
BTU's tape action shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks declining from $32.89 to as low as $31.30.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 10,000 shares crossed the tape $32.01. That was down from the prior block trade at $32.89. The tape showed heavy institutional selling pressure in the morning.
PBY also markets, brokers and trades coal.
This year, analysts forecast a 19% decline in BTU's earnings to $3.38 a share from $4.17 a year ago. Net for the upcoming first quarter should rise 3% and then decline 31% in the second quarter.
BTU's chart shows the stock declining from 60 to around 32. The stock spent several months trending sideways. Today, it breaks below key technical support.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting BTU for a decline to 26 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 32.50.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -BTU - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
