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Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 4, 2013 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are
most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent. 
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 28
Overall Quality of Breakouts - ABOVE AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Large number of breakouts today as Dow hits a new high. Bulls be aggressive. Stock market continues to push higher...."don't fight the Fed."
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011- 2012)
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PRXL - ABOVE AVERAGE |
PRXL, based in Waltham, Ma., provides consulting and marketing
services to drug industry. Annual revenues: $1.8 billion. PRXL's stock
breaks out today from a seven-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a four-year high. So far today, PRXL is trading 784,343 shares, almost double its normal daily volume of 411,000 shares. 
TTD highlighted PRXL as a possible breakout about a week ago.
The stock's 10-minute chart shows PRXL driving higher in the morning along with the stock market.
PRXL hit an intraday high of 36.38 in the morning. It then trended sideways the rest of the day. 
PRXL's tape action shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $35.17 to as high as $36.31 Tuesday.
A key bullish trade occurred when a block of 111,900
shares crossed the tape at $36. That was within a sequence started by an up tick from a block trade at $35.87.
PRXL is one of the largest medical outsourcing firms. It provides knowledge-based contract research, medical marketing and consulting services.
PRXL has expertise in clinical trials management, data management, biostatistical analysis, medical marketing, clinical pharmacology, regulatory and medical consulting and industry training and publishing.
Its information technology subsidiary, Perceptive Informatics, Inc., develops products and services that facilitate clinical drug development.
PRXL's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 48% versus a 12% gain for the S&P 500 index. There has been some insider selling the past few months (see red bars on chart).
PRXL's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from 5 back in 2000 to a peak of 36 in 2008. The stock then took a nasty dive down to 6 during the bear market. However, it has since made a remarkable comeback and Tuesday it's a new all-time high. That could draw in more buying from the new-high crowd.
PRXL's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 26 back in August to close to 35 by January.
The stock then put down a flat base above its rising 50-day moving average line. Today it clears the base with authority - a widening of the daily spread and an expansion in volume.
PRXL's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend near-term and has hit a new peak.
This fiscal year ending in June, analysts project a 37% jump in profits to $1.51 a share from $1.10 a year ago.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 22. TTD sees that as attractive for value investors since it is below the earnings growth rate for the year.
For the upcoming fiscal third quarter ending in March, the Street is looking for a 21% gain in net to 40 cents a share from 33 cents a year ago. The highest estimate by analysts is at 41 cents a share. Most of the time PRXL tends to surprise big on the upside.
Going out to the fiscal fourth quarter ending in June, earnings are projected to climb 24% to 42 cents a share from 34 cents the year before.
Analysts are looking for net for fiscal 2014 ending in June to rise
23% to $1.85 a share from the anticipated $1.51 this fiscal year. 
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting PRXL for an advance to 45 after a breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 33.
TTD rates PRXL a good intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Good. The largest fund holder is Vanguard Health Care Fund with a 4.5% stake. The 4-star rated fund was a recent seller of 100,000 shares.
A key buyer recently was 4-star rated Neuberger Berman Genesis Fund which added 22,600 shares. It has a 1.4% stake.
PRXL has 58.1 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 97% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Bearish. Insiders were recent buyers using stock options from $8 to $10. They were sellers around $34 recently. Currently, nine analysts follow the stock, 5 have a buy, one has a sell. Three months ago, there were six buys and one sell.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Parexel International Corp. - (PRXL) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - EXP - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SNTS - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BCEI - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PMTC - ABOVE AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 2
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Only a few breakdown stocks today as stock market moves sharply higher. Bears be conservative. TTD's short from Monday was Volterra Semiconductor (VLTR) at 14.37. Today, the stock has declined to 14.01 and is working for the bears.
JCP, based in Plano, Tex., is a retailer of clothes and home products. Annual revenues: $13 billion. JCP's stock falls sharply today after there was word large holder Vornado plans to sell a large holding of JCP's stock. So far today, JCP is trading a heavy 36.4 million shares, triple its normal daily volume of 12.8 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
TTD highlighted JCP as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday.
There are reports that Deutsche Bank AG will help New York-based real estate investment trust Vornado to sell 10 million shares of J.C. Penney in an unregistered secondary transaction.
JCP's stock fell steadily in the morning. It hit an intraday low of 14.99 late in the morning. The stock then trended sideways in the afternoon.
JCP's stock has been weak as new management tries to make marketing changes to compete more effectively.
The stock's tape action shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks declining from $17.92 to as low as $15.11.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 88,765 shares crossed the tape at $16.20. That was down from the prior block at $16.74.
JCP operates department stores in the United States and Puerto Rico.
For the fiscal year ending January of 2014, the Street is forecasting a loss of $1.41 a share compared with a loss of $3.49 a year before.
JCP's daily chart shows the stock declining from 30 back in September to 16. It tried to rally but today it rolls over with big volume. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is solidly bearish.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting JCP for a decline to 12.20 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 16.20.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - JCP - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
