Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of  Stock Charts - Thursday, March 8

Daily - Bullish Investors  - Go To TTD Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch  List and Performance -  Thursday, March 8

Ticker Tape Digest

Thursday - March 8, 2012

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

 The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

  Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 12

Overall Quality of Breakouts - Above Average

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Bull side -  Good number of breakouts and some high quality plays. Bulls can be venturesome. Stock market holding well against recent selling.

 (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Neutral

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market  (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish 

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action - March 8

(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011- 2012)

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Ultimate Software Group Inc. (ULTI) - 71.92, up 1.74 - Breakpoint 70.86

Nears All-Time High, Net to Jump 298% This Year, TTD Targets 85

    ULTI, based in Weston, Fla., provides web-based payroll and employee management solution. Annual revenues: $269 million. ULTI's stock breaks out today from a 14-week flat base today. So far today, ULTI is trading a light 64,392 shares. Its average daily volume is 173,000 shares. The stock is now pushing close to its all-time high of  72.42.

  UlTI's stock broke clear of its base in the afternoon. The stock was highlighted by TTD a few weeks ago. However, the stock slipped back into its base. Now it has reemerged.

  ULTI's 10-minute chart shows the stock rising sharply in the morning. The stock peaked around noon. In the afternoon, it trended sideways holding on to its gain.

 ULTI  tape action showed some aggressive buying in the morning.

 A block of  600 shares crossed the tape at $71.12. That was up sharply from the prior block at $70.18.

  Then around noon a block of 540 shares crossed at $71.92. The blocks are not large but do show some aggressive buying interest in ULTI.

  ULTI provides Web-based payroll and employee management solutions to organizations of all sizes.

 The company software UltiPro suite enables businesses to manage human resources and payroll strategically and cost-effectively.

 ULTI offers application hosting through IBM Global Services and a business-to-business Web portal, providing access to value-added resources via the Internet.

  ULTI's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 25% versus a 4% gain for the S&P 500 index.

  ULTI's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from 5 back in 2002 to a peak of 41 in 2008. The stock then fell back during the bear market to 11. It has since staged a sensational recovery. The stock nears a new all-time high. A push to a new high could draw in more buying from the new-high crowd.

  ULTI's daily chart shows the climbing from 45 back October to near 72 in December. It then pulled back to form a flat base bracketed between 65 and 72.

  The breakout today comes with light volume. So, that means one needs to be watchful of the stock. It needs to show a good follow through move.

  ULTI's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is solidly bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) pulled back a bit late last year, but it is now starting to work higher. That shows there is good buying coming back into the stock.

  ULTI's key driver should be its strong earnings outlook. The concern would be its high p/e ratio.

  Looking to 2012, analysts project a 298% jump in net to 64 cents a share from 16 cents in 2011.

  The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 110. That is rich. So the stock should be watched closely. On an earnings valuation basis the p/e ratio is okay, though.

  Profits for the upcoming first quarter should be flat at one cent a share. The highest estimate is at 3 cents a share. So there is chances for an upside surprise. Going out the second quarter net is projected to leap 252% to 11 cents a share from 3 cents a year ago.  The highest estimate is at 14 cents a share.

  Looking ahead to 2013, Wall Street expects  a 55% jump in profits to 98 cents a share from the anticipated 64 cents for 2012.

   Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ULTI  for a move to 86 within the next few months.  A protective stop can be placed near 67. The stock has a beta of 1.42 versus 1.00 for the S&P 500. So, ULTI can get volatile.

Overall, TTD rates ULTI an average intermediate-term play most suitable for an aggressive investor.

 Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is 5-star rated Wells Fargo Advantage Growth Fund with a  5.2% stake. It was a recent buyer of 35,000 shares. Buffalo Small Cap Fund, 4-star rated, was a recent buyer of 4,700 shares. It was a big buyer awhile back. It has 2.9% stake in ULTI.  ULTI has 26 million shares outstanding.

  Insider Activity:  Very Bearish. Insiders have been exercising options to buy the stock at $3 to $6 a share. They have done some selling around $68 recently. Currently, 14 analysts follow the stock, 4 have a buy, down from 8 three months ago.      

 Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers

  Insider Activity - Buying in Green - Selling in Red

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

  Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 3

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side -  Small list of breakdown stocks today as stock market rallies. Bears be selective. Stock market appears to be entering a consolidation pattern.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (GMCR) - 61.33, down 2.39

Cuts Below Key Support, TTD Sees Decline to 55

  GMCR, based in Waterbury, Vt., produces coffee. Annual revenues: $3.2 billion. GMCR's stock, a former leader, is now down sharply today on expanding volume. The move causes the stock to cut below key technical support setting off a TTD short play. So far today, GMCR is trading 7.3 million shares. Its average daily volume is 3.9 million shares.

  TTD highlighted GMCR as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.

  GMCR's stock fell sharply in the morning. It hit an intraday low of 59.50. The stock then rallied to trim its loss. In the afternoon, it trended sideways.

  GMCR's tape action shows the recent big block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks declining from $65.58. to as low as $59.86. A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of  $71,131 shares crossed the tape at $61.24. That was down from the prior block trade at $64.14. That showed heavy institutional selling.

  GMCR's operations are managed through three operating segments. The specialty coffee business produces and sells coffee, cocoa, teas and other hot beverages. These varieties are sold primarily to wholesale channels.

 The Keurig business unit targets its premium patented single-cup brewing systems for use at-home and away-from-home, mainly in North America.

 The Canadian business unit  produces coffees in a variety of packaging formats, including K-Cup portion packs, whose brands include Van Houtte, Brulerie St. Denis, Brulerie Mont-Royal and Orient Express.

  This fiscal year ending September 30 analysts forecast a 62% jump in net to $2.66 a share from $1.64 a year ago. Net for the upcoming fiscal second quarter ending March 30 net is projected to rise 33%.

  GMCR's stock chart shows the stock declining from $110 late last year to as low as 40. The stock then rallied up to the 70 area. Now it is starting to cut below recent technical support.

   Strategy Opinion: TTD sees GMCR as a trading short. We are targeting the stock for a decline to 55 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 63. Any disappointment with earnings could send the stock much lower.

TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest.

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)