|
|
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 4, 2013 |
|
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
|---|
By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
|
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
|---|
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are
most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent. 
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 18
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list large as stock market continues higher. Bulls be venturesome, but don't chase over-extended stocks.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011- 2012)
|
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CFX - ABOVE AVERAGE |
CFX, based in Fulton, Md., makes pumps and fluid handling systems.
Annual revenues: $3.9 billion. CFX's stock breaks out today from a six week flat base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high, which is bullish. TTD featured CFX as a possible breakout earlier this month. 
So far today, CFX's stock is up strongly and volume is running at 553,818 shares. Its average daily volume is 527,000 shares.
So, the breakout is coming with just modest volume.
The stock rose in the morning and moved steadily higher through the day. In the final hour it gave way to some profit taking. 
CFX's tape action shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $44.57 to $46.62 today. The stock showed strong accumulation through most of the day.
A key bullish block trade on Friday came when 5,000 shares
crossed the tape at $46.29. That was up sharply from the prior block at
$44.95
CFX is a supplier of fluid handling products, including pumps, fluid handling systems and specialty valves.
Its products are used in the commercial marine, oil and gas, power generation, global navy and general industrial markets.
They are sold worldwide primarily under the Allweiler, Fairmount, Houttuin, Imo, LSC, Portland Valve, Tushaco, Warren and Zenith brands.
CFX's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 35% versus a 14% gain for the S&P 500 index. One can see on the chart green bars indicating insider buying. They were right on.
CFX's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in 2008 and trading around 25. It fell during the bear market down to 5 by late 2008. However, after forming a bottom, the stock has been driving strongly higher. The breakout to a new high could bring in more buying on Monday.
CFX's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 26 back in July to a peak near 45 in late January. 
The stock's breakout today comes with a nice widening of the spread (range from high to low). That shows ease of price movement and is bullish.
CFX's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an up trend. It shows good underlying buying. It broke out before the price of the stock making it a good lead indicator for bulls.
This year, analysts are forecasting a 38% jump in CFX's earnings to $1.85 a share from $1.34 a year ago.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 23. TTD sees that as low compared with the earnings growth rate. So, the stock is a good value-growth play.
Going out to 2014, the Street projects a 33% gain in net to $2.46 a share from the anticipated $1.85 this year.
For the upcoming first quarter net should be up only 4% to 24 cents a share from 23 cents the year before.
However, earnings growth picks
up in the second quarter. That is when analysts look for a 46% jump in
net to 51 cents a share from 35 cents the year before. 
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CFX for a move to 56, up from our prior target of 54. A protective stop can be placed near 43.
TTD rates CFX a very good intermediate-term play due to its strong earnings outlook and low valuation.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The 5-star rated T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth Fund was a recent buyer of 1 million shares. It has a 2.3% stake. Also the 5-star rated Akre Focus Inst. Fund was a recent purchaser of 1 million shares. It has a 1.3% stake.
CFX has 94.1 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 80% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Not much activity lately. Currently, 10 analysts follow the stock, 2 have a buy, down from 3 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Colfax Corp. - (CFX) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ABAX - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - COO - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BWA - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AMBA - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 3
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small number of breakdown stocks today. Stock market holds up trend. Bulls remain conservative.
SKUL, based in Park City, Utah, makes headphones and audio products. Annual revenues: $280 million. SKUL's stock falls sharply today with heavy volume. The company reported lower earnings for the fourth quarter. So far today, SKUL is trading 6.2 million shares, six times its normal daily volume of 804,000 shares. 
TTD featured SKUL as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.
SKUl came in with fourth quarter earnings of 41 cents a share, down from 44 cents a year before.
SKUL's stock fell sharply in the morning. It hit an intraday low of 5.06 in the morning. In the afternoon, it trended sideways unable to rally.
SKUL's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks declining from $6.75 on Thursday to as low as $5.12 Friday. A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 129,811 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $5.60, down from the prior block trade at $6.75.
SKUL makes headphone and audio products. The company supplies headphones, gaming headsets, earbuds, and sports buds along with apparel and accessories.
This year, analysts are forecasting a 2% rise in net to $1.02 a share from $1 a year ago.
SKUL's daily chart show the stock trending lower from 14 back in October. The breakdown today comes with heavy volume. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is bearish.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting SKUL for a decline to 3.80 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 5.80.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SKUL - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
