Go To TTD's Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch Stock Lists for Monday, March 9
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Go To TTD's Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch Stock Lists for Monday, March 9 |
| Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report.
It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation. 
Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.
These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks
will do very well during bear markets or market corrections
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull's Strategy - Just a few breakouts today. Breakout list continues to remain extremely small and the selections narrow. Stock market remains bearish. Bulls remain conservative and patient. Any entries should be protected with a stop.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Unfavorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) -NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NFLX - ABOVE AVERAGE |
NFLX, based Los Gatos, Ca., provides DVD and other entertainment rentals.
Annual revenues: $1.4 billion. NFLX, one of the strongest acting stocks in the market recently, breaks out from a seven-week base today. The stock is within range to top its all-time high at $40.90 set last year. So far today, NFLX is trading 1.4 million shares. Its average daily volume is 2.3 million shares. 
The stock broke out early in the day and was highlighted by TTD at our midsession show on the Web. It was also a stock featured under our accumulation issues.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the latest big block trades One can see the price for the big blocks rising steadily in the morning from $38.21 to a peak of $39.48. That indicated strong institutional accumulation.
With the stock market pull back in the afternoon, the block prices declined a bit.
NFLX's stock rose sharply in the morning. It peaked around 11 a.m. Afterwards it has been drifiting lower as the stock market comes under selling pressure.
NFLX has some 9 million subscribers to its DVD-rental-by-mail service.
For a monthly fee, subscribers can have between one and four movies out at a time, depending on the plan they choose. The most popular plan allows three movies out at a time for $16.99 per month. The company's numerous distribution centers stock more than 100,000 DVD titles and provide more than 90% of its subscribers with one-day delivery.
TTD's long-term chart shows the stock in a trading range between 18 and 40 for the past several years. The stock has moved across its long-term trading range. If it can push through upside resistance at 40 it could be very bullish long-term.
NFLX's daily chart shows the stock punching through resistance around 39. As we move toward the close, the stock is weakening. So, one needs to be a bit careful
The setup is a flat base bracketed between 34 and 38. It is tight, which is bullish.
The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is bullish now.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is resting after a spurt higher.
Analysts expect NFLX's earnings for the upcoming first quarter will jump 52% to 32 cents a share from 21 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 37 cents a share. That indicates some are expecting a possible big quarter.
NFLX has been increasing its subscriber base. It is also considering using a streaming service. The stock got a momentary boost recently on rumors competitor Blockbuster might file bankruptcy. However, Blockbuster denied the rumor.
This year, the Street projects a 21% gain in net to $1.60 a share from $1.32 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 21 based on this year's projected net. TTD sees that as reasonable, being equal to the earnings growth rate.
This year, NFLX said it has added 600,000 new subscribers. Looking out to 2010, analysts predict a 19% increase in net to $1.90 a share.
Strategy Opinion: TTD suggests taking just a partial stake because of the weakness in the general stock market. We are targeting the stock for a move to 48. A protective stop can be placed near 36 after a breakout. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 48. TTD rates NFLX a good intermediate-term play provided earnings growth continues at its current pace, or better.
Sponsorship: Very Good. the largest fund buyer recently was 3-star rated Hussman Strategic Growth Fund which purchased 910,000 shares. It holds a big 4.3% stake. Another key buyer was 5-star rated ING FMR Diversified Mid Cap Fund which added 116,000 shares. NFLX has 58 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 15.1 million shares.
Insider Activity: Slightly Bearish. Insiders have been doing a bit more selling than buying. Currently, 12 analysts follow the stock, just 2 have a buy, down from 4 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
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TTD's Profile Rating Netflix Inc. - (NFLX) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume Expansion | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 10 | 0 | 4 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.
Charts of Breakout Stocks
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 4
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Long-Term Environment for bears: Favorable.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks today. Bears remain aggressive as trend of the stock market is still down. TTD's short on Friday was Apple Inc. (AAPL) - 84.17, off 4.67. Today, the stock is down 1.38 to 83.95. It is working well for bears so far.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
TM, based in Japan, is one of the largest car makers in the world. Annual revenues: $230 billion. TM's stock slides under key technical support today. The stock has been trending lower from a peak at 140 in 2007. With the company expected to report a loss for the next two fiscal years ending March 30, TTD sees more on the downside. So far today, TM is trading 559,536 shares. Its average daily volume is 1.3 million shares. 
TM's stock moved higher in the morning, but then turned down. There is key upside resistance now at 60.
TTD's clip of the tape shows a block of 5,200 shares crossing in the tape in the morning on a modest down tick to $56.86 from the prior trade at $56.87. The tape action showed institutional selling pressure.
TM's brands include Toyota, Lexus, Scion, and Hino. The firm's market share in Japan is above 40% while U.S. share is about 16%.
Excluding joint-venture sales in emerging markets such as China, Toyota sold 8.9 million vehicles in fiscal 2008.
Auto sales worldwide have been slumping due to the recession. Analyst predict TM will show a loss of $2.33 a share for the fiscal year ending March 30 compared with a profit of $9.74 a share a year before. Looking out to fiscal 2010, the Street projects a loss of $2.38 a share.
TTD's daily chart shows TM's stock falling from around 90 to 57. The stock tried to put in a bottom. However, it is now breaking down again. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is bearish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is rolling over.
TTD is targeting TM for a decline to 48 within the next few months. A protective stop buy can be placed at 61 giving it some roof for bears.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
