Daily - Go to TTD's Chart scroller of Breakout and Leading Stocks - Wednesday, March 9, 2016 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 7, 2016 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Ticker Tape Digest's Midsession Stock Market Video Show(Posted 12:30 to 1 p.m. NYSE Time) Go to TTD Stock Market Show For - WednesdayGo to Shows for Latest Week: Monday
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Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 8
Overall Quality of Breakouts - BELOW AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list small and extremely selective. Bulls be conservative. Stock market rally running out of gas.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - DRI - AVERAGE |
DRI, based in Orlando, Fla., operates 1,500 restaurants under the Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, Bahama Breeze, and Seasons 52 names. Annual revenues: $6.9 billion. DRI's stock breaks out Wednesday from 12-week, cup-and-handle base.
TTD highlighted the stock's breakout at our midsession video show on the web Wednesday.
So far today, DRI is trading a heavy 4.6 million shares, almost triple its average daily volume of 1.6 million shares.
The breakout was triggered by a bullish earnings announcement.
The stock gapped higher in the morning to clear its base. (see 10-minute chart)
The stock reached an intraday peak at 68. It then backed off slightly and trended sideways the rest of the day.
The company said earnings for the fiscal third quarter ended in February should come in at $1.18 to $1.21 a share.
That is well above the $1.06 a share analysts were forecasting.
The highest estimate on the Street was at $1.08 a share. When a company can top the highest estimate on the Street is often extremely bullish for the next few weeks. It is a key fundamental drive.
DRI's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $65.39 in the prior session to as high as 68 Wednesday morning.
A key bullish trade came when 71,332 shares crossed the tape at $68.
That was up from the prior block trade at $65.39 on 22,728 shares.
The price for the blocks did back off afterwards.
However, near the close they did firm
That is when a block of 57,026 shares crossed at $66.93.
It was up from the prior block trade at $66.83 on 10,000 shares.
DRI operates 1,500 restaurants.. It also operates the Capital Grille, Eddie V's, and Yard House brand names.
The company was founded in 1968.
DRI's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 19% versus a 4% decline in the stock market.
Interestingly, there was heavy insider selling in recent months. That seems contrary to the strong earnings forecast.
DRI's long-term chart shows the stock reaching a peak of 42 in 2007. It then tumbled down to 11.82 in 2008 due to the bear market.
However, since then DRI has worked higher gradually. The push to a new high at 68 Wednesday is bullish.
DRI's daily chart shows the stock climbing to 65 in December.
It then put down a classic double-bottom base.
The breakout looks solid coming with expanding volume.
DRI's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is solidly bullish.
Looking out to the fiscal fourth quarter ending in May, the Street is forecasting a 2% decline in net to $1.06 a share from $1.08 a year ago.
TTD sees chances for that forecast to get a boost.
A look at TTD's quarterly reports on DRI shows the company topping the Street estimate the past five quarters. Add, the fiscal third quarter forecast and it makes six quarters.
Net for the fiscal year ending in May should climb 26% to $3.32 a share from $2.63 a year ago.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 20.
TTD sees that as reasonable.
Going out to fiscal 2017, the Street projects a more modest 14% rise in net to $3.78 a share from the anticipated $3.32 this year.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting DRI for a move to 78 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 64 which is tight.
TTD rates DRI a good intermediate-term play provided earnings remain on course.
Sponsorship: Good. The top two fund holders have a 5-star rating. They have kept their positions about steady.
A key fund buyer recently was the 5-star rated Vanguard Equity-income Investment Fund which was a recent buyer of 144,900 shares. It has a 0.6% stake.
DRI has 128.2 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 83% of the stock and insiders 10%.
Insider Activity: Bearish. Insiders were recent heavy sellers around $62 to $64.
Currently, 28 analysts follow the stock, 11 have a buy, up from 10 three months ago.
DRI has a book value of $15.52 a share.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Darden Restaurants Inc. - (DRI) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SMG - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BRSS - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AEP - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PRMW - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 6
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Small list of short plays but some interesting plays. Bears be selective. Stock market looks vulnerable now to a pull back.
TTD's short from Tuesday was Addus Homecare Corp. (ADUS) at 18.84. Wednesday, ADUS falls to 18.39 and is working well for bears.
OPHT, based in New York, is a biotech firm working a products to treat diseases of back of the eye. Annual revenues: $52 million. OPHT's stock falls sharply Wednesday and undercuts key technical support. TTD sees the stock moving lower.
TTD highlighted the stock as a short at our midsession video show.
So far today,OPHT is trading 915,311 shares. Its average daily volume is 635,000 shares.
OPHT's stock broke down hard in the morning cutting below key support. The stock touched a low of 39.75 in the morning.
The stock then rallied modestly later in the day but still remained below key support.
OPHT's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see a key bearish trade coming in the morning when a block of 20,300 shares crossed the tape at $44.90.
That was down sharply from the prior block at $47.41 on 5,210 shares.
The company's key product candidate is Fovista. It is in Phase III clinical development for use in combination with anti-VEGF drugs to treat wet age-related macular degeneration.
The company is also developing Zimura, an inhibitor of complement factor C5, to treat dry AMD and certain forms of wet AMD.
OPHT's daily chart shows the stock trending lower from 80 down to around 42. The stock now cuts below key technical support. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is working lower.
This year, analysts are forecasting a loss of $5.29 a share compared with a loss of $3.06 a year before.
For the first quarter, the Street expects a loss of $1.32 a share compared with a profit of 22 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting OPHT for a decline to 35 within the next few months. A protective stop buy can be placed near 44.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - OPHT - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)