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Ticker Tape Digest

Tuesday - March 10, 2009


                                          By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

Quote or chart

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.


Total Buy Breakouts today - 5

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull's Strategy -  Small list of breakouts, but some interesting plays. Stock market stages big rally. Daily indicators turn up. A pick up in market volume up days is needed to confirm any market turn. Bulls be alert now for any new emerging leading stocks.

 (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Unfavorable

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market (Weekly) -NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market  (Monthly) NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish


Today's Feature Breakout Stock

Pegasytems Inc. (PEGA)- 16.98, up 3.10 - Breakpoint 15.13

Profits Top Street Estimates, TTD Targets 20.50

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PEGA - ABOVE AVERAGE

     PEGA, based in Cambridge, Ma., develops customer service management software. Annual revenues: $200 million. PEGA's stock breaks out today from a seven-month, double-bottom or "W" base. The move was triggered by a strong quarterly earnings report that topped the highest estimate on the Street. PEGA's stock hits an 8-year high.

  TTD highlighted PEGA at our midsession show on the Web today.

  The stock was featured on the TTD report of Feb. 18 when the stock pushed out from its base. However, it faded back.

  So far today, PEGA is trading 739,463 shares, triple its normal daily volume of 227,000 shares.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows strong action in the afternoon after the news went out. A big block of 48,348 shares crossed the tape on a modest up tick to $16.90 from the prior trade at $16.89. The tape action indicated very good institutional buying interest.

TTD said in the Feb. 18 report that PEGA's net could be strong.  It was.

  PEGA posted a profit for the fourth quarter of 8 cents a share, up 100% from the 4 cents a share a year ago. The 8 cents beat the consensus of 6 cents and the highest estimate of 7 cents a share.

 The company's software is designed to integrate, automate, standardize, and manage such activities as account set-up, record retrieval, correspondence, disputes, investigations, and adjustments.

 PEGA provides implementation, consulting, training, and technical support services to facilitate the use of its software. Clients include banks, mutual funds, and credit-card organizations.

   TTD's performance chart shows PEGA's stock has appreciated 75% the past 12 months. That easily tops the 40% drop in the S&P 500 during the same time. So, PEGA is a leader.

  TTD's daily chart shows the formation of the "W" base. The stock peaked in July, fell and hit a bottom in October, had a bounce, made another bottom in November. It then rallied back to its prior peak.

  Today, the stock blows out of the base with a gap move and expanding volume. 

  The TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is neutral. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) lags.

  Looking ahead to 2009, analysts predict a 17% gain in net to 35 cents a share from an anticipated 30 cents a share this year. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 48 based on this year's net. That is high. So, one needs to watch the stock closely.

  Several medical firms like Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Montana use the company's systems.

  For the first quarter of 2009, the Street looks for flat net at 8 cents a share. TTD sees chances for it to do better.

  The company put in a stock buyback plan in December. It was a smart move so far.

  Strategy Opinion: PEGA's breakout today is technically impressive. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 20.50 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 14 giving it room. TTD rates PEGA an average intermediate-term play due to its expected modest earnings growth.

  Sponsorship: Average. The largest fund holder is 3-star rated DFA US Micro Cap Fund with a 0.95% holding. It has held its position steady. PEGA has 36 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 2.2 million shares.

  Insider Activity: Slightly Bullish. Insiders have been modest buyers in recent months. Just one analyst follows the stock and is neutral.     TTD's long-term chart shows PEGA at a 7-year high. The stock has been trending higher nicely. It remains in a log-term up trend.



                     Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.

  


TTD's Profile Rating

Pega Systems Inc. (PEGA) 

TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES    
Volume Expansion YES  
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term YES    
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group   YES
Prior Breakout Success YES    
Fund Sponsorship     YES
Total Score 12 0 2

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.


Charts of Breakout Stocks

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SNDA - ABOVE AVERAGE

   


                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - APSG - ABOVE AVERAGE


                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - OMGI - ABOVE AVERAGE


                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - OPTR - BELOW AVERAGE


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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 2

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Favorable.

Bear Side - Just 2 breakdown stocks today as stock market rallies strongly and broadly. Gold stocks turning down after having done well.  Bears be conservative now and selective.


List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)


TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM) - 34.67, off 3.12

Net to Fall 54% in 1st Quarter, TTD Sees Slide to 28

NEM, based in Denver, is a major gold producer. Annual revenues: $6.2 billion. NEM, along with other gold stocks, falls sharply today. NEM undercuts key support setting off TTD's short play. Today, the price of gold is down $22.10 to 896.90 an ounce. TTD sees more on the downside for NEM. So far today, the stock is down about 3 points. Volume is running 9.6 million shares. The stock's average daily volume is 11.5 million shares.

  NEM's stock fell at the opening and then bottomed in the early after. It was unable to mount a significant rally.

  The stock came under heavy distribution on March 6. TTD's clip of the tape shows a massive block of 217,600 shares crossing on a modest down tick to $38.90 from the prior trade at $38.91.

  NEM has gold reserves of 87 million ounces. Newmont also produces copper and zinc.

The company produces gold from mines in Nevada and California, and, outside of the U.S., from operations in Peru, Indonesia, Mexico and Uzbekistan

  NEM's net for the first quarter is projected by analysts to drop 54% to 39 cents a share from 85 cents a year ago. Profit for the year is expected to be flat.

  NEM's stock often flows with the price of gold. The stock had a good run up, based but now is breaking down. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is bearish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is now in a down trend indicating clear selling pressure.

  TTD is targeting NEM for a decline to 28 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 36.50.



TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)