Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 7 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
1 - TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long - (Intermediate-term long plays) these are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
2 -TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long - (Short-term long plays These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
3 - TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - (Long Term long plays. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
4 - TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 5
Overall Quality of Breakouts - BELOW AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list small even as stock market rebounds. Bulls be selective. Stock market now in trading range. There is still a threat of a further breakdown. Bulls be cautious.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011 - Updated March 4)
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ULTA - ABOVE AVERAGE |
ULTA, based in Bolingbrook, Il., sells beauty products to salons and also provides salon services in the U.S. Annual revenues: $1.4 billion. ULTA's stock, a star performer since turning higher in 2009, breaks out today from a five-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. The move was powered by ULTA reporting better-than-expected earnings. TTD recently featured the stock as a good one to accumulate.
So far today, ULTA is trading 3 million shares, six times its normal daily volume of 547,000 shares.
ULTA's 10-minute chart shows the stock breaking out in the morning on strong volume. The stock pushed comfortably above its breakpoint line.
ULTA reported net income from operations for the fiscal fourth quarter ended January 31 rose to 48 cents a share from 34 cents a year ago. The 48 cents topped the consensus Street estimate of 44 cents a share.
The stock responded bullishly to the news. i
The stock has a beta of 1.65 versus 1.00 for the stock market. So, the stock can move.
Some of the young ladies we speak with like the company's stores and its products. .
TTD's clip of the tape shows the tape action of the big block trades. The price for the block trades climbed from $41.26 to a peak of $46.50
The key bullish trade came today when 15,000 shares crossed the tape at $45.20. That was up sharply from the prior block trade at $41.60. The tape action showed aggressive institutional buying off the earnings news.
ULTA is a beauty retailer that provides one-stop shopping for prestige, mass and salon products and salon services in the United States.
The company offers about 21,000 beauty products organized by category in open, self-service displays to encourage its customers to test and explore the products. ULTA offer a full-service salon and a range of salon hair care products in all of its stores.
ULTA's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 110% versus a 15% gain for the S&P 500 index.
ULTA's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in late 2007 - just in time for the bear market. The stock traded around 33 and then took a dive to 4 by early 2009. However, it has since bounced back strongly. The stock hit a new high Friday. That is very bullish and could bring in more buying from the new high crowd on Monday.
ULTA's daily chart shows the stock rallying from 25 to 44. The stock then formed a flat base above its rising 50-day moving average line. That showed it remained in a strong up trend.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is slightly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is trending sideways and is now starting to turn up.
ULTA said net for the fiscal first quarter should come in between 29 to 31 cents a share. That is above the Street's current estimate of 29 cents a share. That helped the stock on Friday.
For fiscal 2012 ending January 30, analysts forecast a 22% jump in net to $1.42 a share from $1.16 a year ago. Analysts have been bumping up their estimates. TTD expects them to move them up again.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 31. TTD sees that as a reasonable valuation.
Going out to fiscal 2013 ending in January, the Street looks for a 22% gain in net to $1.73 a share
Strategy Opinion: ULTA is a leading stock breaking out. TTD is targeting ULTA for a move to $55. A protective stop can be placed near 42 . TTD rates ULTA a good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.
Sponsorship: Excellent.. The largest fund holder is Wells Fargo Advantage Growth Fund with a 2.4% stake. The 5-star rated fund was a recent buyer of 175,000 shares. The second largest fund holder is 5-star rated Fidelity Contrafund with a 2% stake. It was a recent buyer of 256,520 shares. ULTA has 59.5 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were buyers of the stock using stock options. They turned around and sold. The latest selling was at $44.19. Right now, 10 analysts follow the stock, 6 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Ulta Salon Cosmetics and Fragrances Inc. - (ULTA) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BIG - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ANIK - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - JCP - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SPPI - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 10.
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Good number of breakdown stocks today even though the stock market advances. Bears be selective as stock market still has potential to remain in a trading range. TTD's short from Thursday was Xyratex Ltd. (XRTX) - 11.28, down 0.84. Today, the stock has slipped to 11.13 and is working well for bears.
ARO, based in New York, sells clothes especially for young people. Annual revenues: $2.4 billion. ARO's stock falls sharply today in heavy trading. The company reported earnings below Street estimates. So far today, ARO is trading 8.3 million shares, four times its normal daily volume of 1.8 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
ARO reported net for the fiscal fourth quarter ended January 31 declined to 95 cents a share from 99 cents a year ago. The 95 cents was the consensus estimate of 97 cents a share. So, they disappointed. The stock responded bearishly to the news.
ARO's stock fell in the morning. It hit a low of 22.32. The stock then lifted slightly and trended sideways the rest of the day.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades. One can see a key bearish trade coming in the morning when a block of 82,716 shares crossed the tape at $22.61. The price for the blocks edged higher as the stock market rallied strongly, especially late in the day.
ARO maintains control over its proprietary brands by designing, sourcing, marketing and selling all of its own merchandise. Its products can only be purchased in its Aéropostale stores and online at www.Aéropostale.com.
The company currently operates 885 Aéropostale stores in 49 states and Puerto Rico, 36 Aéropostale stores in Canada and 2 P.S. from Aéropostale stores..
This fiscal year ending January of 2012, analysts forecast only a 1% increase in net to $2.56 a share from $2.54 a year ago. Net for the upcoming fiscal first quarter ending in April is expected to be down 10%.
ARO's daily chart shows the stock falling in August. The stock then tried to form a bottom. However, today's gap down on volume is very bearish.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ARO for a decline to 19 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 24.50.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ARO - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)