Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 4, 2013 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 12
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Large list of breakouts today. Bulls can be venturesome. Stock Market still in up trend. Pre-quarterly earnings announcements may hit soon. So, one must be alert.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011- 2012)
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - GIL - ABOVE AVERAGE |
GIL, based in Montreal, makes activewear especially for the imprint market. Annual revenues: $2.1 billion. GIL's stock breaks out today from an ten-week cup-and-handle base. The move carries the stock closer to its all-time high of 46.47. So far today GIL is trading 580,331 shares. Its average daily volume is 524,00 shares.
TTD highlighted GIL as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Monday.
GIl's 10-minute chart shows the stock moving up nicely on Friday.
Today, the stock continues its push higher clearing its breakpoint line early in the day. In the afternoon, the stock edged a bit higher. Most importantly, though, there was strong volume coming in at the end of the day
That shows strong buyer conviction.
TTD's clip of the tape shows GIL's tape action and big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $38.08 to a peak of $38.72 late in the day. That fits with the heavy volume on the 10-minute chart.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 5,139 shares crossed the tape at $38.23.
That was up from the prior block trade at $38.16.
GIL makes premium quality branded basic activewear for sale principally into the wholesale imprinted activewear segment of the North American apparel market.
The company sells 100% cotton T-shirts and premium quality sweatshirts, in a variety of weights, sizes, colors and styles, as blanks, which are ultimately decorated with designs and logos for sale to consumers.
GIL's 12 performance chart shows the stock appreciating 42% versus an 14% gain for the S&P 500 index. The stock is a top performer in the apparel group.
GIL's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from 7 back in 2003 to a peak of 46.47 in late 2007. The stock then fell with the bear market sliding down to 5. However, it has since been making a strong come back. If GIL can make a new all-time high it could attract more institutional interest by aggressive funds.
GIL's daily chart shows the stock trending higher from 30 back in October to a peak near 38 in January. The stock then put down a cup-and-handle base.
The breakout today shows a modest widening of the daily trading spread. It will be important for the stock to show a follow through.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend. It broke out before the price of the stock. That shows strong buying.
Analysts are forecasting a powerful 104% surge in GIL's earnings for the fiscal year ending September of 2013.
They are looking for $2.67 a share, up from $1.31 in fiscal 2012. Analysts have been edging their forecasts up. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 13. TTD sees that as low making the stock attractive to value-growth investors.
Net for the upcoming fiscal second quarter ending in March is expected to skyrocket 147 to 57 cents a share from a 23 cents a share a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 59 cents a share. GIL tends to come in close to the Street estimate.
GIL's performance chart shows the stock's reaction to recent upside and downside earnings surprise.
One can see most recently that the stock tends to advance prior to an upside earnings surprise.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting GIL for a move to 48 off this breakout. The strong earnings outlook should be the key driver.
A protective stop can be placed near 36
TTD rates GIL a very good intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Very Good. A key fund buyer recently was 3-star rated Fidelity Canada Fund which purchased 100,000 shares. It is the second largest fund holder with a 0.88% stake.
The largest fund holder is Fidelity Low-Priced Stock Fund with a big 7.4% stake. I was a recent seller of 2.1 million shares, obviously cutting back.
GIL has 121.6 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 72% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Not available. Currently, 15 analysts follow the stock, 10 have a buy, up from 11 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Gildan Activewear Inc. - (GIL) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 11 | 0 | 3 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PCLN - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BYI - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - UTX - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HMC - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ARMH - ABOVE AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 4
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks today. Stock market holds up trend. Bears be conservative.
JKS, based in China, makes solar products. Annual revenues: $786 million. JKS' stock falls sharply today and under cuts key technical support. The company is expected to show a loss for this year. So far today, JKS is trading 313,221 shares. Its average daily volume is 346,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
JKS's stock fell steadily in the morning. It hit an intraday low of 6.66 in the morning. The rest of the day it trended sideways unable to mount a rally.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks declining from $7.47 to as low as $6.72.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 3,000 shares crossed the tape at $6.78. That was down from the prior block trade at $7.36.
JKS will report quarterly earnings on March 28. The Street is looking for a loss of 80 cents a share for the fourth quarter. That should bring the deficit for the year to $5.32 a share compared with a profit of 3 cents a share a year ago.
Going out to 2013, the Street projects a loss of $2.18 a share compared with the anticipated loss of $5.32 a share.
JKS is a solar product maker based in Jiangxi Province and Zhejiang Province in China.
The company has built a vertically integrated solar product value chain from recovered silicon materials to solar modules.
Its principal products are silicon wafers, solar cells and solar modules.
JKS's daily chart shows the stock breaking down from a head-and-shoulder technical pattern. The move comes with a pick up in volume. The decline also cuts across key technical support.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting JKS for a decline to 5 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 7.25.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - JKS -BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)