Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of  Stock Charts - Tuesday, March 13

Daily - Bullish Investors  - Go To TTD Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch  List and Performance -  Tuesday, March 13

Ticker Tape Digest

Tuesday - March 13, 2012

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

 The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

  Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 24

Overall Quality of Breakouts - Above Average

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Bull side -  Large number of  breakouts today with some quality plays. Stock market pushes higher. Advantage still to the bulls. One can be venturesome on some new breakout stock.

 (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Neutral

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market  (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish 

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action - March 13

(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011- 2012)

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

GNC Holdings Inc. (GNC) - 33.96, up 2.61 - Breakpoint 33.57

Hits New High, Big Quarter Coming, TTD Targets 41

  GNC, based in Pittsburgh, operates health stores selling nutritional products. Annual revenues: $2.1 billion. GNC's stock breaks out today from a five-week flat base and hits a new all-time high. The stock came public back in March of 2011 and traded around 16 at that time. So far today, GNC is trading a heavy 6.1 million shares, about five times its normal daily volume of 1.2 million shares.

  TTD highlighted GNC as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday.

  GNC's 10-minute chart shows the stock pushing higher early in the session and moving above its breakpoint line.

  The stock then was able to just hold above the breakpoint line in the afternoon.

  GNC's tape action shows the recent big block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $31.85 to a peak of 33.95 late on Tuesday.   

  A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 51,862 shares crossed at $33.68. That was up sharply from the prior block trade at $31.85.

  A block of 100,000 shares crossed at $33.50. That was lower than the prior block price. However, the institutional buyers stepped back in to push the block trade prices higher afterwards.

  GNC is a specialty retailer of nutritional products including vitamin, mineral, herbal and other specialty supplements and sports nutrition, diet and energy products.

 The company offers its products under the brands- Mega Men, Ultra Mega, GNC WELLbeING, Pro Performance, Pro Performance AMP and Longevity Factors and etc. It also offers products and product information online.

  GNC's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 100% versus a 5% gain for the S&P 500 index. The stock has been a star performer since coming public

  GNC's long-term chart goes back to early last year. The stock has been trending higher nicely and in an orderly way. It has now climbed from 17 to 33, almost a double.

  GNC's daily chart shows the stock rising from 20 back in October to 32 in February. The stock did have a breakout from a base at 30 in February, but then stopped to set up the current small flat base.

  The breakout today comes with a gap move. It was triggered by GNC saying it would top its previous earning estimate and disclosing better than expected same store sales.

 In its statement, GNC said it now expects net for the first quarter will top the current Street consensus of 49 cents a share.

  The breakout came on expanding volume. The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a strong up trend showing solid buying in the stock the past several weeks.

  Wall Street was forecasting GNC would show a 49% jump in first quarter net to 49 cents a share from 33 cents a year ago. The highest estimate was at 50 cents a share. The upgrade by the company signals a probable big quarter.

  Going out to the second quarter, GNC's profits are expected to rise 21% to 47 cents a share from 39 cents a year ago.

  Net for all 2012 is projected to climb 22% to $1.86 a share from the $1.52 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of  18. TTD sees that as low given the earnings growth rate.   

  Going out to 2013, analysts project a 15% gain in net to $2.15 a share from the anticipated $1.86 for 2012.

  Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting GNC for a move to 41 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 31. TTD rates GNC a good intermediate-term play due to its modest p/e ratio and good earnings growth.

  Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated Fidelity Contrafund with a 2.3% stake. It has held its position steady. A key buyer recently was 5-star rated LKCM Small Cap Equity Inst. Fund which purchased 375,925 shares. GNC has 106.3 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 51% of the stock.

  Insider Activity: Bearish. Insiders were buyers using stock options at $5 to $7 and selling around $30 to $33. Currently, 7 analysts follow the stock, 6 have a buy, up from 4 three months ago.

 Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers

  Insider Activity - Buying in Green - Selling in Red

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

  Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 3

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side -  Small list of breakdown stocks so far today as stock market rallies broadly. Bears remain conservative and selective. TTD's short from Monday was gold play Anglogold Ashanti Ltd. (AU) at 39.56. Today, the stock is trading at 39.48 and working okay for bears.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Alliant Techsystems Inc. (ATK) - 53.35, down 4.26

Weak Earnings Forecast for fiscal 2013, TTD Sees Drop to 46

 ATK, based in Arlington, Va., produces munitions and weapons. Annual revenues: $4.8 billion. ATK's stock falls sharply today after the company lowered its earnings forecast for the year ended March 30, 2013. The stock is trading a heavy 746,769 shares, triple its normal daily volume of 263,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.

  TTD highlighted ATK as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday.

  ATK said for fiscal 2013 it expects earnings of $6 to $6.30 a share. That was below the Street projection of $7.09 a share. The stock responded very bearishly to the earnings forecast.

  ATK's stock gapped lower in the morning. It hit an intraday low of 52.70 in the morning, lifted slightly and then trended sideways the rest of the day.

  ATK's tape action shows the price for large blocks declining from $57.61 on Monday to as low as $53.29. A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 16,549 shares crossed at $56. That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $57.61. The tape showed institutional selling pressure.

 ATK makes munitions, smart weapons and propulsion, and composite structures. The firm has three business segments: Conventional Munitions, Aerospace, and Defense Systems.

  Net for the upcoming fiscal fourth quarter ending March of 2012 should drop 17% to $1.73 a share from $2.10 a year ago.

  ATK's daily chart shows the stock cutting sharply below key technical support with a widening of the daily trading spread. The stock's accumulation - distribution line has been bearish for several months, edged a bit higher recently, but has now turned down again.

   Strategy Opinion:  TTD is targeting ATK for a decline to 46 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 55.

TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest.

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)