Go To TTD's Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch Stock Lists for Monday, March 16
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Go To TTD's Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch Stock Lists for Monday, March 16 |
| Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report.
It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation. 
Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.
These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks
will do very well during bear markets or market corrections
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts today - 4
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull's Strategy - Still a smaller number of breakouts. Stock Market has been rallying on conracting volume. That is bearish. Today, it fades in the afternoon giving up its gain. Bulls remain selective. Do not chase stocks overly extended in price.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Unfavorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) -NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - GMCR - ABOVE AVERAGE |
GMCR, based in Waterbury, Vt., is a specialty coffee company that processes and distributes coffee. Annual revenues: $500 million. GMCR, a stock TTD featured on Friday, breaks out today on modestly expanding volume. The stock clears a seven-week flat base. It is also in position to clear a long-term, 20 month flat base. So far today, GMCR is trading 610,049 shares. Its average daily volume is 494,000 shares. 
TTD featured GMCR as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web today.
The stock surged higher in the morning, rested around midday and the came on again in the afternoon. It backed off late in the session as the stock market pulled back.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big blocks. One can see that the price for the blocks increased from $39.20 to $42.90. That shows aggressive institutional buying in the stock.
TTD's performance chart shows GMCR's stock appreciating 65% the past 12 months. That compares with a 42% drop in the S&P 500 index. So, GMCR is a eader.
GMCR is about to brew some tasty profits for bulls. TTD sees that as the key driver to send the stock higher.
GMCR roasts Arabica coffees to produce over 70 varieties that it sells under the Green Mountain Coffee Roasters brand. The majority of its revenue is derived from its wholesale customer accounts. Its wholesale division serves supermarkets, specialty food stores, convenience stores, hotels, restaurants, and offices throughout the U.S. The company also has a direct mail operation and e-commerce Web site for its customers.
TTD's long-term chart shows GMCR's stock in a long-term consolidation with clear resistance at 44. The long-term base was set up after the stock ran up from 12 in 2006 to 44. A push through 44.75 would carry the stock to a new all-time high, which would be very bullish. 
TTD's daily chart shows the stock pushing out of its near-term flat base.
GMCR's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend. The AD line indicates good underlying buying going on in the stock. It is a good confirmation that the buying could drive the stock out of the base.
For the fiscal second quarter ending March 31, analysts project a 55% surge in profits to 36 cents a share from 23 cents a share ago. The highest estimate is at 37 cents a share.
TTD sees very good chances for at least a modest upside surprise. The past four quarters GMCR's net topped the consensus by 2 to 7 cents a share.
Looking ahead to the fiscal third quarter ending June 30, the Street sees net climbing 55% to 39 cents a share from 25 cents a year ago. So profit growth will be extremely good.
Sales in the most recent quarter soared 56% to $197 million. It had strong sales during the holiday season.
Net for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30 should jump 50% to $1.30 a share from 87 cents a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 31. That is high but fits with the projected growth rate. Looking ahead to fiscal 2010 ending Sept. 30, analysts expect a 30% gain in net to $1.69 a share. They have been lifting their estimates.
Strategy Opinion: As TTD said Friday, GMCR was well position to breakout at any time. TTD is targeting GMCR for a move to 54 after a breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 39. TTD rates GMCR a good intermediate-term play with potential to surprise on the upside.
Sponsorship: Average. The largest fund holder is 3-star rated Fidelity New Millennium Fund with a 2.9% stake. It was a seller of 163,000 shares recently. Four-star rated Lord Abbett Developing Growth Fund was a recent purchaser of 98,000 shares. GMCR has 24 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 6.2 million shares.
Insider Activity: Slightly Bearish. Insiders were heavy sellers recently around $40. Five analysts follow the stock, 3 have a buy, the same as three months ago. The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is neutral.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
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TTD's Profile Rating Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc - (GMCR) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume Expansion | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 11 | 0 | 3 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.
Charts of Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - NFLX - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - LANC - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -VR - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 1
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Long-Term Environment for bears: Favorable.
Bear Side - Just one breakdown stock today. Bears be patient and alert for any possible market rollover. TTD's short plays on Friday working great. Phillippine Long Distance (PHI) falls 3.36 to 39.25 today. Data Domain Inc. (DDUP) - 11.26, off 1.74 on Friday is down 1.23 to 10.50 today.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
NSM, based in Santa Clara, Ca., produces semiconductors used in electronic products. Annual revenues: $1.8 billion. NSM's stock falls below key technical support at 10 today. The stock had fallen sharply on Friday in heavy trading. With a loss expected in the next quarter, TTD sees potential for more on the downside. So far today, NSM is trading 12 million shares. Its average daily volume is 9.9 million shares. 
Today, semiconductor stocks are one of the weakest groups, down 1.3% despite a rising stock market.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the big block trades in NSM today. One can see the price for the blocks dropping from $10 to $9.65. A key trade was a big block of 245,100 shares that crossed at $9.86.
The tape action shows heavy institutional selling pressure in NSM.
NSMI focuses on the analog chip business and runs a close second in market share for highly sought-after power-management chips.
Its focus on analog chips has helped it expand margins since 2003 but has also put it in direct competition with other firms also trying to reap the benefits of the analog market.
Last week, NSM said it will cut its workforce by 25% due to slowing business.
Analysts predict for the fiscal fourth quarter ending May 30 NSM will show a loss of 16 cents a share compared with a profit of 35 cents a share a year ago. Looking out to fiscal 2010, the Street is forecasting a 49% drop in net to 18 cents a share from 35 cents a year ago.
TTD's daily chart shows NSM falling from 24 to 10. It spent several months trying to put in a bottom. However, today the stock breaks below key near-term support. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has rolled over indicating clear selling pressure picking up.
TTD is targeting NSM for a drop to 6.50 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed at 10.40.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
