Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Tuesday, March 16
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Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Tuesday, March 16 |
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Weekly - Bullish Investors Go To TTD Bargain Setups - Feature - Monday, March 15 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday March 15 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend. |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Breakout list expands a bit with some interesting plays. Stock market still looks in need of a pause. Bulls be very selective now and watchful of all long positions.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CHSI - ABOVE AVERAGE |
CHSI, based in Rockville, Md., is a pharmacy benefit management firm. Annual revenues: $2.9 billion. CHSI's stock breaks out from a nine-week flat base today and hits a new all-time high. The move comes on volume of 336,708 shares. Its average daily volume is 287,000 shares. The push to a new high is very bullish and could well bring in more buying on Wednesday from the new-high crowd. 
TTD highlighted CHSI as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web Tuesday.
The stock was also on TTD's breakout watch list for this month.
CHSI's 5-minute chart shows the stock breaking out in the morning. There was another surge of buying in the late morning. In the afternoon, the stock trended sideways with volume slowing.
TTD's clip of the tape shows CHSI's big block trades.
One can see a key trade taking place way back on Dec. 12. That is when a big block of 44,800 shares crossed the tape at $40.62. That was up from the prior block trade that crossed the day before at $40.47.
TTD sees the tape action indication subtle institutional buying.
The company operates under the brand name Catalyst Rx.
It provides its clients access to a contracted, non-exclusive national network of 63,000 pharmacies. It also provide members with the ability to control pharmacy spending trends through customized plans, clinical programs, physician orientation programs and member education.
CHSI's other services go to self-insured employers, including state and local governments, managed care organizations, unions, third-party administrators, hospices and individuals.
CHSI's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 130% versus a 55% gain for the S&P 500 index.
CHSI's long-term chart is impressive. The stock has climbed from 5 back in 2003 to a peak of 41. It weathered the bear market of 2008 very well. The push to a new high today is very bullish. That is because now there is "no overhead resistance." 
CHSI's daily chart shows the recent advance from 28 to 40. The subsequent base was a flat base bracketed between 36 and 41. The stock showed to shakeouts to the downside.
The breakout today comes on just modest volume. It will be important for CHSI to show a follow up move and with some volume.
CHSI's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has broken out confirming the breakout in the price of the stock.
This year analysts forecast a 24% increase in CHSI's net to $1.84 a share from $1.48 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 22 which is reasonable.
Going out to 2011, the Street expects a 19% rise in net to $2.18 a share.
The company has the look of a solid 20% growth firm.
CHSI's net for the upcoming first quarter should rise 21% to 39 cents a share from 32 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 41 cents a share. CHSI tends to come in close to the Street consensus. TTD does not expect any surprises.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CHSI for a move to 50. A protective stop can be placed near 39 which is tight. The stock has a beta of 0.82 versus 1.00 for the stock market. So, CHSI is not that volatile. TTD rates CHSI an above average intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Good. The largest fund holder is T. Rowe Price New Horizons Fund with a 2.9% stake. The 4-star rated fund was a recent buyer of 85,200 shares. Another key buyer of the stock was Vanguard Morgan Growth Fund, 3-star rated, which picked up 56,900 shares. CHSI has 44 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders have been buyers using stock options. They have turned around and sold. The latest selling was at $39.21. Right now, 16 analysts follow the stock, 10 have a buy, up from 9 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
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TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Catalyst Health Solutions Inc. - (CHSI) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 12 | 0 | 2 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - INTC - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - RUE - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MTD - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -CVVT - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 3
Stocks Screened - 8,2007
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Just a few breakdown stocks so far today. Bears remain conservative but alert.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
AMSC, based in Devens, Mas., is an energy technologies company. It offers solutions based on two technologies: programmable power electronic converters and high temperature superconductor wires. Annual revenues: $290 million. AMSC's stock falls sharply after a research report said the company was vulnerable to a slowdown in revenues from its link to business in China. So far today, AMSC is trading a heavy 4.2 million shares, four times its normal daily volume of 989,000 shares. 
AMSC's stock moved lower in the morning. It finally hit a bottom at 25.70 late in the morning. It then trended sideways unable to mount a rally.
TTD's clip of the tape shows heavy institutional selling pressure before the report was made public today. A key trade late on Monday was a big bock of 64,732 shares that crossed at $29.70.That was within a sequence started by a down tick from a block trade at $29.75.
The stock's drop was linked to a report by Citron Research which put out a report that AMSC's revenues would be vulnerable to a slowdown in demand for wind turbines in China. Citron noted that AMSC has a subsidiary called Windtec, a German turbine design company. It gets about 70% of its revenues from Sinovel, one of China's largest wind turbine companies.
The sense is that AMSC's revenues and earnings will be impacted by windtec.
AMSC serves the wind energy market and the power transmission and distribution or power grid market.
This fiscal year ending March 30, analysts are forecasting AMSC's earnings will come in at 38 cents a share compared with a loss of 31 cents a share a year ago. Going out to fiscal 2011, they have been projecting a 124% jump in net to 84 cents a share from the anticipated 38 cents this year. Those estimates could be cut if there is a slowdown in wind turbine sales in China.
AMSC's chart shows the stock heading lower from 44 down 26. The stock had a break below key support at 30. Now it cuts below support at 26. The chart pattern is very bearish. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is bearish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is extremely bearish indicating heavy selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting AMSC for a decline to 21 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 27.30.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
