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Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 12 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are
most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent. 
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 11
Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Good number of breakouts with some interesting new small cap plays. Bulls can be venturesome. Stock market holds in up trend with momentum still bullish.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Bullish
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CVU - ABOVE AVERAGE |
CVU, based in Edgewood, N.Y., makes structural aircraft parts. Annual revenues: $74 million. CVU, a small cap play trading on the Amex, breaks out today and hits a new all-time high. The stock clears a seven-week flat base. The breakout comes on volume of 54,758 shares. The stock's average daily volume is 16,000 shares. 
CVU is a thinly traded stock. It has just 7 million shares outstanding.
However, the stock is strong and earnings are expanding significantly.
TTD highlighted CVU as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Friday.
CVU's 30 minute chart shows the edging out of its base on Thursday. Friday, the stock picked up more momentum to hit a new high.
TTD's clip of the tape shows CVU's recent block trades. 
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $15.54 to $16.15.
A key bullish trade came around midday on Friday. That was when a block of 1,000 shares crossed the tape $15.86. That was up from the prior block trade at $15.50. The tape action showed good institutional buying interest.
CVU is made up of two firms: CPI Aerostructures, Inc. and Kolar, Inc.
CVU is engaged in contract production of structural aircraft parts and sub-assemblies for the commercial and military aircraft industry.
The company also provides engineering, technical and program management services to its customers. Kolar makes precision machine parts and sub-assemblies for the electronics industry, including computer and microwave device manufacturers.
CVU's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 19% versus a 10% gain for the S&P 500 index.
CVU's long-term chart shows the stock driving to a new all-time high. The stock has rallied strongly from $3.80 at the low in the bear market of 2009. The stock cam public in 2000 and at that time traded around 2 to 4. The push to a new high on Friday could bring in more buying on Monday.
CVU's daily chart shows the stock breaking out from a flat base with strong volume for this thinly traded issue. The base was set up after the stock rallied from 9 in September to 15. So, the stock is in a solid up trend.
The daily spread (range from high to low) expands. That is bullish. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is solidly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) broke out before the price of the stock. That is significant showing there was strong buying while the stock was basing and prior to the breakout.
CVU should strong earnings.
This year, analysts are forecasting a 56% surge in net to $1.62 a share from $1.04 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of just 10. TTD sees that as low given the strong earnings growth for the next two years.
Next year, analysts look for an 18% gain in net to $1.91 a share from the anticipated $1.62 this year.
Net for the next two quarters will be very strong.
For the first quarter, profits are expected to jump 71% to 33 cents a share from 19 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 38 cents a share. That shows some are looking for a big quarter. Going out to the second quarter, the Street is forecasting a 70 gain in net to 38 cents a share from 22 cents the year before. 
The company has forecast annual revenues at $95 to $98 million. It is benefiting from work on three major long-term programs. Earlier this year, CVU received a contract from Goodrich for aerospace structural assemblies.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CVU for a move to 21 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 14.50. TTD rates CVU an excellent intermediate-term play. The thinness in the stocks float could work to its benefit in that it will be hard for institutions to buy the stock. Thus, they may bid it up.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund buyer recently was 4-star rated Royce Pennsylvania Mutual Fund which purchased 116,100 shares. It has 1.7% stake. Another key buyer was 3-star rated Wasatch Micro Cap Value Fund which added 85,000 shares. CVU has 7 million shares outstanding with institutions holding 56% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Bullish. Insiders were buyers late last year at $7.24 to $6.75 a share using stock options. They have done no selling. It could be they are looking for higher prices. Five analysts follow the stock and all 5 have a strong buy, the same sentiment as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers
Insider Activity - Buying in Green - Selling in Red
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating CPI Aerostructures Inc. - (CVU) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - WWWW - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ATLS - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - LFUS - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - UMPQ - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 1
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Only one breakdown stock today. Bears be conservative and selective. TTD's short play from Thursday was Vera Bradley Inc. (VRA) at $33.61. Today, the stock has declined to 33.19 and is working well for bears.
ARLP, based in Tulsa, produces coal for utility and industrial users. Annual revenues: $1.8 billion. ARLP's stock, part of the currently weak acting coal stock sector, declines today and undercuts key technical support. So far today, ARLP is trading 231,897 shares, double its normal daily volume of 112,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside. 
ARLP's stock moved lower in the morning on Friday. It touched an intraday low of 65.15. The stock then worked higher to trim its loss. However, the stock's price remained below key technical support.
ARLP's tape action shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price of the blocks declining over the past few days from $70.73 to $65.30.
A key bearish trade today came in the morning when a block of 3,086 shares, duplicated, crossed at $67.51. That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $68.90.
The tape action showed clear institutional selling pressure.
ARLP operates mining complexes in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky and Maryland. Some of their mining facilities are underground and one has both surface and underground mines.
The company produces a diverse range of steam coals with varying sulfur and heat contents, which enable them to satisfy the broad range of specifications demanded by customers.
Analysts expect ARLP's earnings to decline 8% this year to $7.46 a share from $8.13 a year ago. Net for the first quarter should fall 21%.
ARLP's chart shows the stock cutting below key technical support from a head-and-shoulder pattern. The past two sessions volume has picked up significantly. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a sharp down trend indicating clear selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ARLP for a decline to 60 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 69.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ARLP - AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
