Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of  Stock Charts - Thursday, March 17

Daily - Bullish Investors  - Go To TTD Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch  List and Performance -  Thursday, March 17

Ticker Tape Digest

Thursday - March 17, 2011

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

  Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

 The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

 1 - TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long - (Intermediate-term long plays)  these are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  2 -TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long - (Short-term long plays These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 3 - TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - (Long Term long plays.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  4 - TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.   

Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 8

Overall Quality of Breakouts - AVERAGE

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Bull side - Small list of breakout stocks. Trucking and railroad stocks acting well. Market rise as it tries to stabilize after recent sharp drop. Bulls remain patient and selective.

 (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Neutral

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market  (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish 

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action - Thursday, March 17

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  

(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011 - Updated March 4)

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Old Dominion Freight Lines Inc. (ODFL) - 34.26, up 1.18 - Breakpoint 33.66

Hits All-Time High, Profits to Jump 29% This Year, TTD Targets 43

  ODFL, based in Thomasville, N.C., is an inter-regional and multi-regional motor carrier. Annual revenues: $1.5 billion. ODFL, a TTD accumulation play, breaks out today from an 11-week, double bottom or "W" base. The move carries the stock to a new high, which is bullish. So far today, ODFL is trading 490,690 shares. Its average daily volume is 469,000 shares.

  TTD highlighted ODFL as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web Thursday.

  The company gave a presentation at the JP Morgan Transportation conference in New York on Wednesday.  Raymond James brokerage firm raised its opinion on the stock to outperform about a week ago.

  ODFL's 10-minute chart shows the stock gaping higher in the morning and driving across its breakpoint line.

  The stock then rested through the early morning, but in the afternoon it began to push higher.

  ODFL's tape action shows the recent big block trades. .

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $32.83 to a peak of $33.88. A key bullish trade came Thursday morning when 6,100 shares crossed the tape (duplicated) at $33.88. That was up from the prior block trade at $33.51.

  ODFL' stock has been a steady climber. However, it does have a low beta of 0.61 versus 1.00 for the stock market. That means the stock is about half as volatile as the stock market.

 ODFL is a regional motor carrier transporting primarily less-than-truckload shipments of general commodities, including consumer goods, textiles and capital goods to a diversified customer base.

  It also provides customers with logistics services that include ground and air expedited transportation, warehousing and truckload brokerage.

  ODFL's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 50% versus a 10% gain for the S&P 500 index.

 ODFL's long-term chart shows the stock as a star performer having soared from 3 back in 2002 to a peak of 33. The stock weathered the bar market well.   

  ODFL's daily chart shows the stock driving north from 25 to 33 by January. It then formed a double bottom base with a handle. The stock clears the base today after attempting a breakout on Wednesday.

  The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is modestly bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a strong up trend. It broke out before the price of the stock. So, that was a good lead indicator.

  This year, the Street is forecasting a 29% jump in net to $1.75 a share from $1.35 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 19. TTD sees that as low an attractive to conservative value investors.

  Next year, analysts project a 23% gain in net to $2.15 a share from the anticipated $1.75 this year.

  Net for the upcoming first quarter is expected to surge 100% to 28 cents a share from 14 cents a year. The highest estimate on the Street is at 32 cents a share. TTD sees chances for a modest upside surprise. The past four quarters, ODFL topped the consensus estimate by 9 to 1 cent a share.

  Looking ahead to the second quarter, profits should rise 27% to 49 cents a share from 39 cents a year ago.

  Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ODFL for a move to 43 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 32, which is tight. TTD rates ODFL an excellent intermediate-term play for conservative investors.

  Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund buyer recently was 5-star rated Janus Triton Fund which purchased 144,845 shares. It has 0.86% stake. The largest fund holder is Fidelity Mid-Cap Stock Fund with a 2.5% stake. It has held its position steady. ODFL has 55.9 million shares outstanding.

  Insider Activity: Neutral.  Not much activity lately. The latest report shows one insider buying stock at $30.10. Currently, 18 analysts follow the stock, 12 have a buy, up from 11 three months ago.

Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 4.

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks today as stock stages rallies. Bears remain alert as market is still vulnerable to the downside.  TTD's short from Wednesday was  Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG) - 30.26, down 1.36. Today the stock has declined to $30.08 and is working well for bears.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Guess Inc. (GES) - 38.58, down 5.20

Profit Outlook Disappoints, TTD Sees Slide to 32

 GES, based in  Los Angeles, makes casual clothes. Annual revenues: $2.4 million. GES' stock falls sharply today after the company made a disappointing forecast of earnings. The stock gapped lower and fell to an intraday low of 37.65. So far today GES is trading a heavy 7.6 million shares, seven times its normal daily volume of 1.1 million shares. TTD sees more on the downside.

  GES came in with net for the fourth quarter of $1.11 a share. That beat the consensus estimate of $1.06 a share. Revenues climbed 18%.

  However, the company said net for the second quarter would be just 41 to 44 cents a share. That was well below the consensus estimate of 61 cents a share. That was very bearish and the stock market responded in a bearish way to the news.

  One advisor, Buckingham lowered its rating on the stock to neutral.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades in GES.

  One can see the price for the blocks declining from $44.81 to as low as $37.90.

  A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 69,468 shares crossed the tape at $40.35. That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $43.87.

 GES makes denim and cotton clothing, including jeans, pants, overalls, skirts, dresses, shorts, blouses, shirts, jackets and knitwear.

 In addition, it has granted licenses to make products that complement its apparel lines, including clothing for infants and children, activewear, footwear, eyewear, watches, and home products.

 GES's daily chart shows the stock with a surprise gap drop on heavy volume. The stock had been trending sideways. So, the decline came without any technical warnings.

 Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting GES for a decline to 32 within the next few months, or less. The stock does have the potential to extended its move to the downside. A protective stop buy can be placed near 40.10.

TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest.

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)