Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Thursday - March 18
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Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Thursday - March 18 |
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Weekly - Bullish Investors Go To TTD Bargain Setups - Feature - Monday, March 15 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday March 15 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades" (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns Conservative Bearish Investors (swing traders). "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend. |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Stocks Screened - 8,200
Bull side - Breakout list contracts with only a few good looking plays. Stock market holds up trend. Bulls be selective now and watchful of all long positions.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - UPS - AVERAGE |
UPS, based in Atlanta, provides delivery services for packages. Annual revenues: $45.3 billion. UPS' stock breaks out from a 10-week, cup-handle base and makes a new 52-week high. The stock is recovering from the bear market well. Earnings growth this year and next should rise 20%. That is good for such a large company. So far today, UPS is trading 7.7 million shares. Its average daily volume is 5.3 million shares. 
TTD highlighted UPS as a breakout at our midsession show on the Web Thursday.
UPS's 10-minute chart shows the stock moving lower at the start of the day. It then turned up in the morning and pushed through its breakpoint
The stock held comfortably over its breakpoint the rest of the day.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the action in UPS in the morning.
A key trade is highlighted. It is a big block of 72,700 shares that crossed on a modest up tick to $63.87. That was up from the prior trade at $63.86. The stock showed good institutional buying interest.
UPS delivers packages each business day for 1.8 million shipping customers to 6.1 million consignees in over 200 countries and territories.
The company's primary business is the time-definite delivery of packages and documents worldwide.
The UPS service portfolio also includes global supply chain services and less-than-truckload transportation, primarily in the United States.
The Company operates in three areas: U.S. Domestic Package operations, International Package operations and Supply Chain & Freight operations.
In 2009, UPS delivered an average of 15.1 million pieces per day worldwide. In June 2009, the Company acquired a unit of Intereuropa Globalni Logisticni Servis. In 2009, it acquired service agents in Slovenia and Turkey.
UPS' 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 58% the past 12 months. It slightly outperformed the S&P 500 which was up 48%.
UPS's long-term chart shows the stock falling roughly from 80 down to 38 during the bear market. It made its bottom in early 2009 like many stocks. Since then UPS has been working higher having almost doubled the past year.
UPS' daily chart shows a cup-and-handle setup and today's breakout. The stock is pick up good volume and should show an expansion over the prior day. That shows good demand for such a highly traded stock.
UPS's base structure is bullish. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has turned up. However, it does trail the price action a bit. That shows the buying needs to pick up to give the stock the driving power to move significantly higher.
This year, analysts predict UPS earnings will increase 26% to $2.91 a share from $2.31 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 21. TTD sees that as reasonable.
Looking ahead to 2011, the Street expects net to rise 22% to $3.56 a share from the anticipated $2.91 in 2010.
UPS should benefit from a pick up in the economy and its international expansion via acquisitions.
UPS net for the upcoming first quarter should be up 9% and then in the second quarter 38%. So, there will be an acceleration in quarter earnings growth.
Net for the first quarter is expected to come in at 57 cents a share, up from 52 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 63 cents a share. The past two quarters, UPS topped the consensus estimate by 2 and 3 cents a share. TTD sees chances for a modest upside surprise.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting UPS for a move to 77 within the next six months. A protective stop can be placed near 60. TTD rates UPS a good intermediate-term play for conservative investors.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund buyer recently was 5-star rated Vanguard Wellington Fund which purchased 1.8 million shares. The largest fund holder is 3-star rated American Funds Growth Fund of America with a 2% stake. UPS has 993 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Very little activity. The latest selling was done around $57. Currently, 22 analysts follow the stock, 11 have a buy, up from 7 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
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TTD's Breakout Profile Rating United Parcel Service Inc. - (UPS) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 12 | 0 | 2 |
(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ESI - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CDR - BELOW AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AIT - BELOW AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -FULT - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 2
Stocks Screened - 8,2007
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Only a few breakdown stocks today. Bears remain conservative. Selected oil stocks acting bearish.
(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)
NBR, based in Hamilton, HM, is a drilling contractor. Annual revenues: $3.6 billion. NBR's stock breaks below key support today with a significant pick up in volume. The company is expected to show a big drop in earnings the next two quarters. So far today, NBR is trading 10.7 million shares, double its normal daily volume of 5.6 million shares. 
NBR's stock headed lower at the opening. It hit a bottom at $20.26 around noon. It then staged a modest lift and then trended sideways the rest of the session.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades in NBR. One can see the price for the blocks declining from $22.06 to $20.50. A key trade was a big block of 100,000 shares that crossed at $21.06 in the morning. That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $21.68.
The tape action is very bearish showing heavy institutional distribution.
NBR conducts oil, gas and geothermal land drilling operations in the U.S., Canada, South America, Mexico, the Caribbean, the Middle East, the Far East, Russia and Africa.
The company has 542 land drilling rigs. It also operates as a land well servicing and workover contractor.
This year, analysts project that NBR will show a 15% decline in earnings to $1.10 a share from $1.29 a year ago. .
Net for the upcoming first quarter is expected to tumble 69% to 20 cents a share from 65 cents a year ago. The second quarter net should decline 35% to 21 cents a share from 32 cents a year ago.
NBR's daily chart shows the stock cutting below key support at 21.22. The fall coming on heavy volume is bearish. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is bearish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is now trending lower, which is bearish.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting NBR for a decline to $15.50. A protective stop buy can be placed near 21.50.
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)
