|
|
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 14 |
|
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short |
|---|
By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under 
Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
|
Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns |
|---|
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
1 - TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long - (Intermediate-term long plays) these are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
2 -TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long - (Short-term long plays These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
3 - TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - (Long Term long plays. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
4 - TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 5
Overall Quality of Breakouts - AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Small list of breakout stocks. Stock market rise as it tries to stabilize after recent sharp drop. There is now potential for a follow through rally. Bulls remain watchful and selective.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Neutral
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011 - Updated March 4)
|
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PII - AVERAGE |
PII, based in Medina, Min., makes snowmobiles, motorcycles and terrain vehicles. Annual revenues: $2 billion. PII's stock breaks out from today from a three-month flat base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high, which is bullish. So far today, PII is trading 493,319 shares. Its average daily volume is 429,000 shares.
TTD highlighted PII as a breakout at our midsession show on the web Friday.
PII's 10-minute chart shows the stock edging above its breakpoint line on Thursday. However, Friday, the stock drove sharply higher clearing it nicely.
In the afternoon, the stock trended sideways.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent block trades. 
One key block trade stands out!
A block of 57,790 shares crossed the tape Friday morning at $82.29. That was up sharply from the prior block trade at $81.45.
The block tipped off tape watchers that big money was moving into the stock aggressively.
PII makes snowmobiles and other vehicles and accessories and sells them through dealers and distributors.
The company's line of all terrain vehicles consist of fourteen models. They include general purpose, sport and four-wheel drive utility models.
PII produces a full line of snowmobiles, consisting of thirty-three models, ranging from utility and economy models to performance and competition models.
PII's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 55% versus a 10% gain for the S&P 500 index.
The stock's long-term chart shows PII hitting an all-time high having climbed from a bear market low of 5 in 2009. The stock has made a sensational comeback. The push to a new high could well bring in buying on Monday.
PII's daily chart shows the stock in a basing pattern bracketed between 70 on the downside and 91.70 on the upside. The breakout today clears the top of the base.
The base showed two shakeouts and both were contained nicely.
PII's technicals are bullish. The TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) turned bullish five weeks ago.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) broke out well before the price of the stock. So, the AD line was a good lead indicator. It shows there has been strong buying in the stock even before the breakout.
This year, analysts forecast a 13% rise in PII's earnings to $4.85 a share from $4.29 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 16, which is reasonable.
Looking out to 2012, the Street projects a 16% gain in net to $5.64 a share from the anticipated $4.85 this year.
Net for the upcoming first quarter should climb 18% to 70 cents a share from 59 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 84 cents a share. That shows some see potential for a big quarter. TTD sees excellent chances for an upside earnings surprise. The past four quarters, PII topped the consensus estimate by 6 cents a share, 23 cents, 9 cents and 13 cents.
Net for the second quarter is expected to rise 19% to 91 cents a share from 76 cents a year ago.
Sales growth for the latest quarter jumped 31%.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting PII for a move to 100 within the next few months. There is a chance for a stock split and that could boost the stock. A protective stop can be placed near 77. TTD rates PII an average intermediate-term play.
Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is Neuberger Berman Genesis Fund with a 3.9% stake. The 5-star rated fund was a recent buyer of 85,000 shares. Also, 5-star rated Janus Triton Fund was a recent purchaser of 82,685 shares. PII has 34.1 million shares outstanding.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders were recent buyers using stock options. They turned around and sold. The latest selling was at $80. Currently, 12 analysts follow the stock, 9 have a buy, the same as three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Polaris Industries Inc. - (PII) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - IFF - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - EXP - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SSRX - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TGP - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 5.
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks today as stock market scores small gain. Bears remain aggressive seeking to short fundamentally damaged stocks. TTD's short from Thursday was Guess Inc. (GES) - 38.58, down 5.20. Today, the stock is trading at 38.10 and working okay for bears.
CRM, based in San Francisco, provides marketing and technology services. Annual revenues: $1.7 billion. CRM's stock falls sharply today undercutting key technical support. The stock, a leader, is now working lower. The company is expected to show weak earnings for the fiscal year ending January of 2012. So far today, CRM is trading 4 million shares. Its average daily volume is 3.6 million shares. 
CRM's stock fell sharply in the morning. It then staged a small rally, but rolled over headed south hitting an intraday low of 117.66. The stock rallied slightly in the afternoon.
TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks working lower from $124.19 to $118.40.
The day started out with a bullish block of 120,899 shares crossing the tape at 123.66, up from the prior block at $122.33. However, the next two blocks saw the price drop to $119.24 and then to $118.40.
CRM software allows customers to manage and share all of their sales, support, marketing and partner information on-demand.
The Salesforce Platform enables customers to build on-demand applications. The Salesforce Platform allows applications to be easily shared, exchanged and installed. Customers can also take advantage of Successforce, salesforce.com's world-class training, support, consulting service.
This fiscal year ending January of 2012 is expected to drop 42% to 38 cents a share from 66 cents a year ago. The stock sells with a very high valuation. Net for the upcoming fiscal first quarter is expected to drop 71% to 5 cents a share from 18 cents a year before.
CRM's daily chart shows the stock cutting below support with a modest rise in volume. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is working lower indicating clear selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: CRM has not broken down hard year, but TTD sees that possibility especially because of its high p/e ratio. TTD is targeting CRM for a decline to 100 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 125.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CRM - AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
