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Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 18, 2013 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are
most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent. 
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 5
Overall Quality of Breakouts - BELOW AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Stock market pulls back. The daily upside momentum has dissipated. Bulls be conservative and watchful of positions.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011- 2012)
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - RLGY - AVERAGE |
RLGY, based in Parsippanym, N.J., provides real estate services. Annual revenues: $4.7 billion. RLGY's stock breaks out today from a six week flat base. The move carries the recent IPO to close its all-time high of 49.35 set earlier this year. So far today, RLGY is trading 790,135 shares. Its average daily volume is 911,000 shares. 
TTD highlighted RLGY as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Monday.
RLGY's stock broke out in the morning and hit an intraday high of 48.49.
The stock then backed off and trended sideways the rest of the session. It held its ground well in the final hour when the stock market declined.
RLGY's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $47.69 on Friday to a peak of $48.40 Monday morning.
A key bullish trade came late in the morning when a block of 2,000 shares crossed the tape at $48.40.
That was up sharply from the $47.21 on the prior block trade.
RLGY provides real estate brokerage services, relocation services, and title and settlement services.
The Company's brands and business units include Better Homes and Gardens(R) Real Estate, CENTURY 21(R), Coldwell Banker(R), Coldwell Banker Commercial(R), The Corcoran Group(R), ERA(R), Sotheby's International Realty(R), NRT LLC, Cartus and Title Resource Group.
RLGY's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 40% since October. that compares with a 10% gain for the S&P 500 index the past 12 months.
Obviously RLGY is benefiting from the rebound in the housing market.
RLGY's long-term chart shows the stock coming public back in October when it traded around 33. The stock has been trending higher ever since. A push to a new high would be very bullish and draw more attention to the stock. 
RLGY's daily chart shows the stock advancing to around 47 in February from 34 back in October.
The stock attempted a breakout back in mid-February and then again in late February. However, it fell back both times.
Now, RLGY attempts a breakout again.
The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) has been mostly bullish the past six months.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has broken out to the upside before the price of the stock. That is a bullish lead indicator.
This year, analysts are forecasting a profit of $1.39 a share compared with a loss of $7.09 a share a year ago. The stock sells with a price earnings ratio of 34.
TTD sees that as reasonable given that earnings for 2014 should jump 56% to $2.17 a share from the anticipated $1.39 this year.
For the upcoming first quarter, analysts expect a loss of 37 cents a share compared with a loss of 93 cents a share the year before.
However, going out to the second quarter, earnings should come in at 76 cents a share compared with a loss of 11 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting RLGY for a move to 58 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 45. TTD rates RLGY a good intermediate-term play provided earnings meet expectations.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated Fidelity Contrafund with a 2% stake. It has held its position steady. A key buyer recently was T. Rowe Price High-Yield Fund, 4-star rated, which purchased 380,700 shares.
RLGY has 145 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 99% of the stock.
Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders have been getting options. However, they have done no selling in the past few months. Currently, 5 analysts follow the stock, 3 have a buy, down from 4 three months ago.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Realogy Holdings Corp. - (RLGY) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 12 | 0 | 2 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TA - BELOW AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - STZ - BELOW AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CKEC - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 1
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Only one short play candidate. Bears remain conservative. Stock market still in up trend. TTD's short from Friday was Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) at 5.55. Today, the stock as dropped almost 10% to 5.01 and is working great for bears.
RPRX, based in Woodlands, Tex., is a biotech firm developing product for the human reproductive system. Annual revenues: nil. RPRX's stock falls today after the company reported a wider loss for the fourth quarter from a year ago. So far today, RPRX is trading 291,449 shares. Its average daily volume is 823,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside. 
TTD highlighted RPRX as a short at our midsession video show on the Web.
RPRX's stock declined in the morning and then trended sideways the rest of the day. The stock weakened a bit more in the final hour.
RPRX reported a fourth quarter loss of 47 cents a share compared with a loss of 22 cents a share a year before.
The news was taken bearishly.
RPRX's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks declining from $9.42 a few sessions ago to as low as $9.13. A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 2,300 shares crossed the tape at $9.19. That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $9.41.
This year, analysts are forecasting RPRX will show a loss of $1.17 a share.
RPRX products are used to treat sexual dysfunction, vaccine adjuvants, fertility and female health.
RPRX's daily chart shows the stock taking a dive in January. It then trended sideways, failed in an attempted rally and then slipped back. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a steep down trend. That indicates heavy and consistent selling pressure.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting RPRX for a decline to 7 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 9.90.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - RPRX - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
