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Ticker Tape Digest

Wednesday, March 19, 2008


TTD will not publish Thursday. Friday is a Holiday. We resume Monday.

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

  Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

Quote or chart

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.


Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 8

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull side -   Breakout list expands modestly with some good growth stocks showing up. Bulls be venturesome.

Long- term Environment for bulls:  Bearish

Market Status (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market Status (Weekly) -NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market Status (Monthly) NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish


Today's Featured Breakout Stock

Axsys Technologies Inc. (AXYS) - 48.52, up 41.26, up 3.19 - Breakpoint 48

Profits to Jump 30, Makes Security Fences, TTD Sees Move to 60

      AXYS, based in Rocky Hill, Ct., makes opto-electronic products and components that are used for security fences and other products. Annual revenues: $172 million. AXYS rises sharply today to breakout from a five-week base to hit an all-time high. Volume is running at 161,572 shares. The stock's average daily volume is 160,000 shares.

  The stock is one of the most powerful in the market the past 12 months. TTD's performance chart shows that AXYS up about 170%  compared with a decline of 5% for the S&P 500 (see TTD's performance chart below)

  The stock's superb performance today comes against a stock market that took a sharp dive. TTD sees AXYS as a "special situation" stock that is doing very well.

  The stock showed good tape action in the afternoon. Our clip of the tape highlights a big block of 10,000 shares crossing on a modest up tick to $47.60 from the prior trade at $47.59. The next tick the stock jumped to $47.69.

AXYS  products include electromagnetic subsystems, specialty alternating- and direct-current motors, position- and pressure-sensing components, laser scanners, transformers, connectors, and electronic filters.

 The company sells to the aerospace, telecommunication, defense, and office-equipment industries. Axsys also owns Telic Optics, a manufacturer of infrared optical devices. AXYS' equipment is used for border security fences.   

  TTD's  long-term chart of AXYS shows the stock in a powerful bull market. The stock has soared from 10 four years ago to 48. The up trend remains intact.

  TTD's daily chart shows AXYS breaking out from a base in February. Notice the breakout came on a big expansion in volume. That is very bullish.

 The stock did not get very far immediately. It paused to set up a new 5-week base. Today, it breaks out powerfully to resume its up trend.

  The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has hit a new peak. That shows there is good underlying buying in the stock. The TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is strongly bullish.

  AXYS posted a strong fourth quarter with net from operations jumping 71% on a 42% improvement in revenues. The strong profits were driven by good demand in the recently acquired gyro-stabilization business. Also, margins were strong due to a favorable product mix.

  For the upcoming first quarter, analysts predict net will climb 46% to 40 cents a share from 27 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 41 cents a share. TTD sees very good chances for an upside earnings surprise. The past three quarters, AXYS topped the consensus estimate on the Street by 4 to 13 cents a share.

  Net for the year should jump 37% to $1.75 a share from $1.27 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of  27. TTD sees that as reasonable. Next year, the Street is forecasting a 23% gain in net to $2.15 a share. TTD sees chances for that estimate to be lifted.

  Strategy Opinion: AXYS is a powerful acting stock supported by good earnings. TTD is targeting the stock for a move to 60 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 45 and should be honored. TTD rates AXYS a very good intermediate-term play because of its strong profit outlook.

  Sponsorship: Good. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated LKCM Small Cap Equity Fund with a 2% stake. The largest buyer lately was 4-star rated Neuberger Berman Small Cap Growth Fund which picked up 61,000 shares. AXYS has just 10 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 1.6 million shares.

  Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders have been  light buyers of the stock. However, they turned around and sold. Five analysts follow the stock, just one has a buy, the same as three months ago. TTD sees good chances for more of a bullish following.



  Stock Performance Chart for One Year versus the S&P 500 index.


TTD's Breakout Profile Rating
Axsys Technologies Inc.  (AXYS)
TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES  
Volume Expansion YES  
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term YES    
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES  
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success YES  
Fund Sponsorship YES  
Total Score 14 0 0

All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work.

(Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)

  


Charts of Breakout Stocks





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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 9

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral

Bear Side -  Good number of breakdown stocks today as market declines. Fertilizer stocks decline sharply. The group could be topping, but breakdowns under key support are still needed.


List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)


Commentary on TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Ericsson Telephone Co. (ERIC) - 17.52, off 1.87

Sees Weak European Sales, TTD Sees Drop to 13

ERIC, based in Stockholm, Sweden, is a leading supplier of wireless telecom equipment. It supplies network operators and service providers globally with products like antennae and transmitters. Annual revenues: $24 billion. ERIC made a profit warning today of weak sales in Europe. The stock responded by falling sharply. TTD sees ERIC in a good spot to short for aggressive bears.

  So far today, ERIC is trading 9 million shares, double its normal daily volume of 4.5 million shares.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows the stock under heavy selling pressure in the morning. A big block of 33,435 shares crossed the tape on a modest down tick to $17.07 from $17.08.

  ERIC said its Sony Ericsson handset joint venture with  Sony Corp. issued a first-quarter profit warning.

 Sony Ericsson, the world's fourth largest mobile phone maker with 8.8% of the total market in 2007 said lower-than-expected mid-to- high end phones sales would hit profits in the first quarter.

The global economic slowdown and few Western European users upgrading handsets are seen as the root of the problem, the company said.

  Analysts have been forecasting ERIC's earnings for the first quarter will be down 25% to 37 cents a share from 50 cents a year ago. For the year, they see ERIC's profits declining 5% to $1.94 a share from $2.03 a share a year ago.

  TTD's daily chart shows ERIC with a breakdown last October. Afterwards the stock trended lower. It tried to form a bottom around 20. However, today's breakdown destroys that technical support level. TTD sees the stock as a good short for aggressive bears. TTD is targeting ERIC for a drop to 13 within the next few months.


  


TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)