Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Thursday, March 19, 2015 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 16, 2015 |
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 17
Overall Quality of Breakouts - ABOVE AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Breakout list large with some good looking plays. Bulls can be venturesome. Stock market still holds near-term up trend.
Stock market holds in up trend.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CELG - ABOVE AVERAGE |
CELG, based in Summit, N.J., produces drugs to treat cancer and immune-inflammatory related diseases. Annual revenues: $7.7 billion. CELG's stock breaks out today from an 10-week-flat base. The move carries the stock, a leader in the medical sector, to a new all-time high.
TTD highlighted CELG as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday.
So far today, CELG is trading a heavy 6 million shares. Its average daily volume is 4.3 million shares.
CELG's 10-minute chart shows the stock advancing in the morning and clearing its breakpoint line with good volume.
The stock then worked higher through the day reaching an intraday peak of $125.58 - a new all-time high.
The stock finished near its high and showed strong volume in the final hour.
CELG's tape action shows the recent big block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $122.68 late on Wednesday to a peak of $125.55 Thursday.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 76,705 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $123.80.
That was up from the prior block at $122.68 on 22,984 shares.
As has happened in the past, the tape showed big institutional buying near the close.
A massive block of 335,457 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $125.33.
That was up from the prior block trade at $125.21 on 56,700 shares.
CELG develops orally administered, small molecule drugs for the treatment of cancer and immunological diseases.
Its primary commercial-stage products include Revlimid, Vidaza, Thalomid and Abraxande. It also has licensing deals with Novartis. CELG has also been active in making acquisitions.
CELG's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating a modest 66% compared with an 17% gain for the stock market. The stock is a leader among the big cap drug stocks.
CELG's long-term chart shows the stock soaring from $5 back in 2005 to a peak of 77 in 2008. The stock then fell back to 39 during the bear market that ended in 2008.
The stock worked its way back and in 2012 broke out from its long-term flat basing chart pattern and pushed higher and voted a 2-for-1 stock split last year.
It hits a new high Thursday. That is bullish and could bring in more buying.
CELG's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 85 in October to a peak near 124 by January.
The stock then put down a flat base with most of the work above a rising 50-day moving average line.
Today, CELG cuts across its breakpoint line.
The move is modest. So, it will need to show good follow through action.
CELG's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend and breaks out too indicating good underlying buying.
This year, analysts forecast an 29% increase in CELG's earnings to $4.32 a share from $3.36 a year ago.
Looking out to 2016, the Street projects a robust 41% surge in profits to $6.09 a share from the anticipated $4.32 this year
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 28 based on this year's net. TTD sees that as reasonable.
For the first quarter, Wall Street is projecting a 23% jump in profits to 90 a share from 73 cents a year ago.
The highest estimate on the Street is at 93 cents a share.
TTD sees good chances for an upside earnings surprise. CELG topped the consensus estimate the past four quarters. (see table)
Going out to the second quarter, profits are expected to rise 29% to $1.03 a share from the 80 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CELG for a move to 150. A protective stop can be placed near 117.
TTD rates CELG a good intermediate-term play. It is an ideal stock for a long-term investor provided earnings continue to meet expectations.
Sponsorship: Excellent. A key fund buyer recently was 5-star rated Fidelity Select Biotechnology Portfolio Fund which bought 1.1 million shares. It has a 0.83% stake.
Also, the 4-star rated Fidelity Contrafund was a recent buyer of 853,407 shares. It has a 0.47% stake.
CELG has 800 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 82% of the stock. Insiders have less than 1%.
Insider Activity: Bearish. Insiders have been buyers using stock options around $7 to $29 recently. They were sellers around $118.
Currently, 27 analysts follow the stock, 23 have a buy, the same as three months ago. The company has a book value of $8.15 a share.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating Celgene Corp. - (CELG) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 12 | 0 | 2 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - HELE - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - FWRD - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PAYC - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - EVHC - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 2
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Just two breakdown stocks today. Bears be patient and selective. TTD short from Wednesday was Scripps Networks Interactive (SNI) at 70.26. Today, SNI has declined to 70.15 and is working fine for bears.
MTOR, based in Troy, Mich., formerly known as ArvinMeritor, Inc., supplies drivetrain, braking and aftermarket solutions for commercial vehicle and industrial markets. Annual revenues: $3.7 billion. So far today, MTOR is trading a heavy 3.6 million shares,four times its average daily volume of 809,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.
The drop in MTOR was due to Barclays downgrading the stock along with Dana (DAN) due to weak demand in the global commercial truck market.
TTD highlighted MTOR as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Thursday.
MTOR's stock fell steadily in the morning and hit an intraday low of 12.16.
The stock then lifted slightly in the afternoon.
MTOR's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $13.67 in the prior session to as low as $12.16 on Thursday.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a massive block of 101,700 shares crossed the tape at 12.64.
That was down sharply from the prior block trade at $13.07 on 29,989 shares.
The Company serves commercial truck, trailer, off-highway, defense, and specialty and aftermarket customers around the globe. It operates in three segments: Commercial Truck, Industrial, and Aftermarket & Trailer.
MTOR sells its products under the brand names of Meritor, Euclid, Mascot, Trucktechnic, Meritor WABCO, and Gabriel to motor carriers, OE dealers, and independent distributors.
This fiscal year ending in September, analysts are forecasting a 33% increase in net to $1.36 a share from $1.02 a year before. If business should slow that forecast will come down.
MTOR's daily chart shows the stock cutting below key support with volume. The stock had a prior breakdown in January. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has now rolled over.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting MTOR for a trip down to 10 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 13.10.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MTOR - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)