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Ticker Tape Digest

Friday - March 20, 2009


                                          By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

Quote or chart

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.


Total Buy Breakouts today - 1

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull's Strategy - Breakouts fall today as stock market works lower. Bulls be patient looking for quality plays. The turn up in the weekly and monthly charts is very constructive. The key now is to find stocks breaking out with a strong earnings outlook.

 (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Unfavorable

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market (Weekly) -NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market  (Monthly) NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish


Today's Feature Breakout Stock

Monro Muffler Brake Inc. (MNRO) - 26.77, up 1.51 - Breakpoint 25.80

Profits to Rise 16% This Fiscal Year and Next, TTD Targets 34

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MNRO  - AVERAGE

  MNRO, based in Rochester, N.Y., operates a chain of  stores providing automotive undercar repair services in the U.S. Annual revenues: $470 million. MNRO, part of the strong acting auto parts and service sector, breaks out from a seven-week, flat base today and makes a three-year high. The move to a new high could well bring in more buying on Monday from the new-high crowd. TTD highlighted MNRO as a stock to accumulate in our report on Thursday.

  MNRO broke out early in the day and was featured by TTD at our midsession show on the Web. The stock climbed through the morning peaking around noon. It then sagged back a bit and the trended sideways during the late afternoon.

  So far today, the stock is trading 429,354 shares, double its normal daily volume of 221,000 shares.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows the price for recent big blocks climbing from $25.26 to $27.25. That is good tape action showing good buying interest by institutions. A key trade was a block of 30,230 at $25.50. (The trade was reported twice.)

 MNRO's stores provide a full range of services for exhaust systems, brake systems, steering and suspension systems and many other vehicle maintenance services.

 The company's stores typically are situated in high-visibility locations in suburban areas and small towns, as well as in major metropolitan areas.

  TTD's performance chart shows MNRO's stock appreciating 60% the past 12 months. It has easily outperformed the S&P 500 index which is down about 40%.

  TTD's long-term chart shows MNRO to be a great performer soaring from 5 in 2001 to 26.50 at this point. The stock had a good run up peaking in 2006. It actually spent three-years consolidating. It now looks to be on the move. Analysts have noted that with the recession autos will be kept longer. Thus, parts and service auto firms should do well.   

  MNRO set up its base with a run up from 16 to 26 the past four months. The base was well formed showing a trading range between roughly 25 and 22.

  TTD's daily chart shows the breakout with a widening of the spread (range from high to low) widening. That is bullish. The volume a few sessions ago was very strong on the up days. That is encouraging.

  The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has pushed to a new peak. That shows the underlying buying is good.

  MNRO's net for the fiscal year ending March 31 should increase 16% to $1.19 a share from $1.03 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of  21. That is a little rich given the earnings growth rate.

  Net for the upcoming fourth quarter ending March 30 should increase 13% to 15 cents a share from 13 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 16 cents a share.

  MNRO tends to meet or top by one to two cents a share the consensus estimate TTD does not expect any surprises. If there are any, the stock should pop further to the upside. Comparable store sales are showing a 5% gain.

  Going out to fiscal 2010, the Street expects a 16% gain in net to $1.39 a share from the anticipated $1.19 a share.

  Strategy Opinion: MNRO is a conservative play in a hot group - auto service. TTD sees the stock as a trading play. We are targeting MNRO for a move to 34 within the next few months. A protective stop can be placed near 24. TTD rates MNRO an average intermediate-term play.

  Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated T. Rowe Price Small Cap Stock Fund with a big 7.1% stake. A key buyer recently was 4-star rated Royce Value Plus Fund which purchased 563,000 shares. Also, 5-star rated UMB Scout Small Cap Fund added 148,000 shares. MNRO has 19 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 5.7 million shares.

  Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders have been buyers using stock options, but they turned around and sold. Two analysts follow the stock and both have a strong buy.



                     Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.

  


TTD's Profile Rating

Monro Muffler Brake Inc. (MNRO) 

TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES    
Volume Expansion YES  
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term YES    
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success YES    
Fund Sponsorship YES    
Total Score 14 0 0

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.


Charts of Breakout Stocks

None


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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 6

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Favorable.

Bear Side - Breakdown list of stocks expands today. Bears have trading chances near-term to the downside. TTD's short from Thursday was CRA International Inc. (CRAI). Today, the stock is down 1.17 to 17.92.  


List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)


TTD’s Feature Bear Play

American Science & Engineering Inc. (ASEI) - 49.71, off 3.97

Stock Cuts Below Key Support, TTD Sees Drop to 42

  ASEI, based in Bilerica, Ma., is a supplier of innovative X-ray inspection systems. Annual revenues: $200 million. ASEI, a former leading stock, breaks below key support today and opens the door for more on the downside. So far today, ASEI is trading 235,262 shares. Its average daily volume is 221,000 shares. The stock fell at the opening and then bottomed around noon. It trended sideways the rest of the day.

 TTD's clip of the tape shows a big block of 17,314 shares crossing in the morning on a down tick at $53.82 from its prior trade at $53.85. The trade was one of the largest of the day. It showed the stock under significant institutional selling pressure. The company has just 9 million shares outstanding.

  The stock has been weak after the government terminated a contract on Feb. 23.

   The company's products are used for X-ray threat detection for plastic explosives, plastic weapons, liquid explosives, dirty bombs and nuclear devices.

  Analysts have been forecasting ASEI's net for the fiscal year ending March 31 would increase 60% to $3.18 a share from $1.99 a year ago. For fiscal 2010, they have been looking for an 18% rise in net to $3.75 a share. There is a chance those estimates could come down.

  TTD's daily chart shows ASEI's stock cutting below key support near 54 today. The stock is in a clear down trend now. The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is bearish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is trending lower. That shows an affirmation of clear selling pressure.

  TTD is targeting ASEI for a decline to 42 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 52. The stock does have potential to disappoint if earnings projects get knocked down.



TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)