Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Tuesday, March 24, 2015
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Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of Stock Charts - Tuesday, March 24, 2015 |
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Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, March 23, 2015 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks" |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
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Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are
most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent. 
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Breakout Stocks
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 9
Overall Quality of Breakouts - AVERAGE
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Bull side - Good number of breakouts today with medicals leading the way. Bulls be selective. Stock market holds near-term up trend.
(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)
Long Term Environment for bulls: Favorable
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bearish, Nasdaq Bullish
Market (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish
Ticker Tape Digest's
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TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AMWD - ABOVE AVERAGE |
AMWD, based in Winchester, Va., makes kitchen cabinets. Annual revenues: $807 million. AMWD's stock breaks out from a five-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a new all-time high. That is bullish. So far today, AMWD is trading 2,598 shares. Its average daily volume is 213,000 shares. 
TTD highlighted AMWD as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Tuesday.
AMWD's stock pushed higher in the morning and quickly cut across its breakpoint line. (see 10-minute chart)
The stock continued to gradually move higher during the day and hit an intraday high of 55.93 in the afternoon. 
AMWD's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks advancing from $53.22 in the prior session to as high as $55.65 on Tuesday.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 20,000 shares crossed the tape at $54.75.
That was up from the prior block trade at $54.58 on 5,000 shares.
Then near the close a block of 5,421 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $55.65.
That was up from the prior block at $55.44 on 4,875 shares. 
AMWD makes kitchen cabinets and vanities for the remodeling and new home construction markets.
It sells framed stock cabinets in almost 100 different cabinet lines, ranging in price from relatively inexpensive to medium priced styles.
The Styles vary by design and color from natural wood finishes to low- pressure laminate surfaces.
The entire product offering includes thirty-three door designs and five colors.
AMWD's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 72% versus 13% for the S&P 500 index. There has been steady insider selling (see red bars on chart).
AMWD's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from 16 back in 2003 to a peak of 48 in early 2005.
The stock eventually fell to 12 by 2008 due to the bear market. It spent 2009 to 2012 forming a bottom. It has since emerged to the upside and has climbed to an all time high Tuesday. That is bullish and could bring in more buying from the new high crowd. 
AMWD's daily chart shows the stock breaking out from a base back in early February at 42.
The stock advanced to 53 and then set up a tight, 5-week base.
The breakout today is good coming with a widening of the daily trading spread.
The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is solidly bullish.
The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) has already broken out to the upside.
That shows good underlying buying.
Analysts are forecasting AMWD will post a robust 55% surge in profits for the fiscal year ending in April to $2.01 a share from $1.29 a year before.
The stock sells with a price earnings ratio of 23 based on fiscal 2015 net. 
Net for the upcoming fiscal fourth quarter should surge 65% to 56 cents a share from 34 cents the year before. The highest estimate on the Street is at 61 cents a share.
TTD sees chances for an upside earnings surprise.
Looking ahead to fiscal 2016, the Street projects a 20% rise in net to $2.42 a share from $2.01 anticipated for fiscal 2015.
Profits for the fiscal first quarter ending in July should be up 18% to 62 cents a share from 52 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting AMWD for a move to 65 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 52.
TTD rates AMWD a good intermediate-term play provided earnings remain on course.
Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest fund holder is Hennessy Focus Investor Fund with a big 5.2% stake. The 5-star rated fund has kept its position steady.
The largest fund buyer recently was 4-star rated Pyramis Small Cap Core Composite Fund which purchased 44,750 shares. It has a 1.1% stake.
AMWD has just 15.9 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 62% of the stock and insiders 27%.
Insider Activity: Slightly Bearish. Insiders have been steady sellers around $51 lately. They were buyers using stock options from $18 to $36.
Currently, 5 analysts follow the stock, 3 have a buy, the same as three months ago. AMWD has a book value of $14.24.
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.
| TTD's Breakout Profile
Rating American Woodmark Corp. - (AMWD) |
| TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
| Near 52-week High | YES | ||
| Volume | YES | ||
| Tick Volume | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
| Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
| Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
| Base Structure | YES | ||
| Base - A-D | YES | ||
| Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
| Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
| Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
| Industry Group | YES | ||
| Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
| Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
| Total Score | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ABMD - ABOVE AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BRLI - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - BABY - AVERAGE |
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - TWTR - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 2
Stocks Screened - 8,300
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Just two breakdown stocks today. Bears be conservative. Stock market holds up trend.
WLL, based in Denver, produces oil and gas. Annual revenues: $3 billion. WLL's stock falls sharply today and undercuts key technical support. The company's decline comes as WLL makes a stock offering. So far today, WLL is trading 50 million shares, five times its average daily volume of 9.3 million shares. 
TTD highlighted WLL as a short at our midsession video show on the Web.
WLL's stock fell steadily in the morning and hit an intraday low of 30.
The stock then trended mostly sideways through midday. It then lifted slightly in the late afternoon.
WLL's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $38.50 in the prior session to as low as $30.61 in the morning.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 1.6 million shares crossed the tape at $30.
That was down from the prior block trade at $38.39 on 101,743 shares.
WLL acquires and develops crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids primarily in the Permian Basin, Rocky Mountains, Mid-Continent, Gulf Coast and Michigan regions of the United States.
Analysts are forecasting WLL will show a loss of 63 cents a share compared with a profit of $4.15 a share in the prior year.
For the upcoming first quarter, the Street expects a loss of 29 cents a share compared with a profit of $1.05 a share the year before.
WLL's daily chart shows the stock gapping lower on big volume, due in part to the offering. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is now bearish.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting WLL for a decline to 26 within the next few months. A protective stop buy can be placed near 38.20.
| TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - WLL - BELOW AVERAGE |
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)
