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Ticker Tape Digest

“Professional Report”

Wednesday - March 25, 2009


                                          By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily breakout and Short Selling report. It contains Breakout Stocks and Stocks under Significant Accumulation.

Data is from tape action for the day. These stocks are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points for leading stocks.

These stocks will do very well during bull markets and strong market rallies.

TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks

will do very well during bear markets or market corrections

TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

Quote or chart

TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the break point. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

TTD Quick Trade Stocks. These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about an  80% win rate.

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Ticker Tape Digest's Midsession Stock Market Video Show

(Posted 12:30 to 1 p.m. NYSE Time)


Go to TTD Stock Market Show For March 25

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Total Buy Breakouts today - 4

Stocks Screened - 8,200

 Bull's Strategy - Only a few breakouts today as stock market takes investors for "joy ride." Dow now up against technical resistance.  The major market indicators are bullish. What is needed is more volume, or conviction. Bulls  remain conservative. The first quarter will end soon and earnings will be coming.

 (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Neutral

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market (Weekly) -NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market  (Monthly) NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish


Today's Feature Breakout Stock

Lancaster Colony Corp. (LANC) - 43.25, up 0.76 - Breakpoint 42.80

Net to Soar 42% This Fiscal Year, TTD Targets 52

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - LANC  - ABOVE AVERAGE

  LANC, based in Columbus, O., a diversified firm, makes food products, automotive accessories, glass products, and candles. Annual revenues: $1.1 billion. LANC', a conservative stock, edges out from a seven-week, cup-and-handle base today and hits a 52-week high. The move comes on light volume of 179,437 shares. Its average daily volume is 321,000 shares.

  TTD recently highlighted LANC as a stock to accumulate. We also featured it out midsession show on the Web on Wednesday.

  LANC's stock rose steadily in the morning peaking around 43.50. It then fell in the afternoon along with the stock market. In the final hour it staged a modest rally.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows a block of 1,000 shares crossing at $43.23. The trade came on a sequence started by an up tick from $43.22. So, the institutional buying on the tape today was modest.

  LANC has a low beta of 0.37. The beta of the S&P 500 is 1.00. So, LANC tends to be a slow mover relative to the stock market. That can also be seen by the pattern of the long-term chart. However, the key now is that LANC will be showing strong earnings.

 LANC largest division is in the food sector. It produces specialty foods, markets condiments, baked goods, and pasta under brand names such as Girard's, Pfeiffer, and Marzetti.

 The automotive division produces floor mats, truck splash guards, and other parts, which it sells to auto manufacturers and retail stores. Lancaster Colony also produces glassware, cookware, and glass items used in industrial applications.

   The past six years, LANC traded between roughly 30 and 45. The stock is now moving toward the top of its long-term trading range. (see TTD's long-term chart. A push to a new multi-year high would be technically very bullish long-term.   

  TTD's performance chart shows LANC appreciating 8% the past 12 months. That compares with a 40% drop in the S&P 500 index.

  TTD's daily chart shows LANC rallying from 26 to 42 the past few months. The structure of the base is bullish. The contraction in volume the past several sessions is very bullish. It shows a dryup of profit taking from the prior move. The key now is to show an expansion in volume with the stock continuing higher.

  LANC's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is bullish.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend. However, it is resting now. It needs to perk up.

  What makes LANC's stock look attractive is that earnings for the fiscal year ending June 30 should surge 42% to $2.33 a share from $1.64 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of  just 17. Granted it is a food stock. Nevertheless the p/e is well below the earnings growth rate. That makes it attractive to value investors.

  Net for the upcoming fiscal third quarter should soar 72% to 51 cents a share from 30 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 56 cents a share.

 The company is benefiting from good sales and a better mix of products. That is helping to improve margins. The company expects its specialty foods unit to do well as commodity costs moderate.

  Looking out to the fiscal fourth quarter ending June 30, analyst predict a 47% jump in net to 55 cents a share from 37 cents a year ago.

 Strategy Opinion: LANC is a conservative play but one whose strong earnings outlook could cause the stock to surprise on the upside. We see very low downside risk.

 TTD suggests scaling into LANC. We are targeting the stock for a move to 52 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed at 40. TTD rates the stock a good intermediate-term play because of the strong earnings outlook.

  Sponsorship: Excellent. The largest fund holder is 5-star rated Royce Special Equity Fund with a 1.7% stake. It was a recent buyer of 15,000 shares. Also, 5-star rated Champlain Small Company Fund picked up 29,000 shares. LANC has 27 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 3.5 million shares.

  Insider Activity: Slightly Bullish. Insiders did some light buying in recent months. Two analysts follow the stock, none have a buy.       



                     Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.

  


TTD's Profile Rating

Lancaster Colony Corp. (LANC) 

TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES    
Volume Expansion   YES
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term     YES
Price Daily Spread   YES
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success     YES
Fund Sponsorship YES    
Total Score 10 0 4

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy.


Charts of Breakout Stocks

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - AEM  - AVERAGE


                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - MDRX  - BELOW AVERAGE


TTD’s Feature Stock Under Accumulation

(Trading strategy: Purchase of these stocks is done when either the stock is still in a base, or has emerged and is acting very bullish. Purchase while a stock still is basing should be a scale-in strategy with the final buying to be done on a breakout from a base. Buying of these stocks when they are trending higher can be done aggressively.)


Edwards Lifesciences Corp. (EW) - 60.91

Set a Stop Buy at 63 to Catch the Breakout

Profits to rise 17% this year, TTD Targets 72 after a Breakout

  EW, based near Los Angeles, produces products to treat cardiovascular disease. It is a major producer of  heart valves and  leader in acute hemodynamic monitoring. Annual revenues: $1.2 billion. EW is one of the best performing stocks over the past several years (see TTD's long-term chart). The stock is now in a seven-week, cup-and-handle base. With a strong first quarter coming, TTD sees good chances for a breakout.

  So far today, EW is trading a light 297,653 shares. Its average daily volume is 696,000 shares.

  The stock is off a little today. It rose in the morning, but then fell in the afternoon along with the stock market.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows the stock getting off to a good start Wednesday. A block of 2,600 shares crossed the tape on a nice up tick to $61.44 from the prior trade at $61.21. The tape action indicated good institutional nibbling on the stock.

  EW is a steady stock. It tends to move slow. It has a beta of just 0.51 versus 1.00 for the S&P 500 . That means EW is about half as volatile as the stock market.

  EW focuses on specific cardiovascular disease such as heart valve disease, peripheral vascular disease and critical care technologies.

 The company's global brands, sold in a hundred countries. They include Carpentier-Edwards, Cosgrove-Edwards, FloTrac, Fogarty, LifeStent, PERIMOUNT Magna and Swan-Ganz. Edwards Lifesciences, Carpentier-Edwards, Cosgrove-Edwards.

  Since 2001, the stock has climbed from 20 to 60 (see long-term chart). It has been in a long-term basing pattern for the past nine months.   

  TTD's daily chart shows EW having trended higher from 45 to 62. Afterwards, it formed a cup-and-handle base with upside resistance around 63.

  The structure of the base is bullish. However, it does lack a good contraction in volume near the low.

  The TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) is neutral.

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend. It compliments the basing formation in a bullish way.

  This year, analysts forecast EW's profits will increase 17% to $2.97 a share from $2.55 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 20 based on this year's projected net. TTD sees that as reasonable.

  Going out to 2010, profits are expected to rise 16% to $3.44 a share.

  For the upcoming first quarter, the Street is looking for a 23% gain in net to 69 cents a share from 56 cents a year ago.

  The highest estimate on the Street is at 71 cents a share. TTD sees chances for a modest upside earnings surprise. Four quarters ago, the company topped the consensus Street estimate by 7 cents a share. So, it is capable of turning in some very good numbers.

  Strategy Opinion: EW is a steady growth stock. TTD suggests a stop buy at 63 to catch a breakout. We are targeting the stock for a move to 72 after a breakout. A protective stop can be placed near 60 after a breakout. TTD rates EW a good intermediate-term play due to its solid earnings outlook.

  Sponsorship: Average. The largest fund holder is BlackRock Large Cap Core Fund, 3-star rated,  with a big  9.5% stake. EW has 55 million shares outstanding. Funds hold 23.1 million.

  Insider Activity: Neutral. Insiders have been exercising options to buy, but then turning around and selling. Currently, 11 analysts follow the stock, 6 have a buy, down from 7 three months ago.



Myriad Genetics Inc. (MYGN) - 87.46

Set a Stop Buy at 88.30 to catch the Breakout

Medical stock close to a clear breakout. Net to surge 66% this fiscal year (June 30).


American Italian Pasta Co. (AIPC) - 32.81

Set a Stop Buy at 33.80 to catch the Breakout

Stock, a leader, nears breakout, tape bullish. Net to soar 105% in Fiscal 2009 (Sept. 30).


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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 2

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral

Bear Side - Only a few breakdown stocks today. Bears be conservative. Market rallying on light volume so far. It is vulnerable.


List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)


TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Ameron International Inc. (AMN) - 42.11, off 5.24

Stock Drops On Poor Earnings, TTD Sees Fall to 35

  AMN, based in Pasadena, Ca.,  makes highly-engineered products and materials for the chemical, industrial, energy, transportation and infrastructure markets. Annual revenues: $670 million. AMN's stock falls sharply today after the company reported disappointing earnings for the fiscal first quarter. The heavy trading in the stock today indicates the results were a surprise to the Street. TTD sees more on the downside.

  AMN is down about 5 points. Volume is running at 418,397 shares, almost four times its normal daily volume of 119,000 shares.

  The stock moved lower in the morning until it finally hit a bottom around noon. It then trended sideways the rest of the day unable to mount a rally.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows a series of small blocks trading around midday. One can see the price of the blocks declining from $47.20 to $42.01. The tape action indicated clearly bearish action.

  The company reported net for the fiscal first quarter ended Feb. 28 dropped to 42 cents a share from $1.07 a year ago. The 42 cents was below the consensus Street estimate of 47 cents. The lowest estimate was at 35 cents.

  AMN produces water transmission lines; fiberglass-composite pipe for transporting oil, chemicals and corrosive fluids and specialized materials and products used in infrastructure projects.

 The Company operates businesses in North America, South America, Europe and Asia. It also participates in several joint-venture companies in the U.S. and the Middle East.

  This fiscal year, analysts forecast a 58% drop in earnings to $3 a share from $7.06 a year ago.

  TTD's daily chart shows the technical breakdown in the stock cutting through a modest up trend line within an overall down trend. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of the chart) has been bearish for several months. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is a clear down trend showing the stock has been under selling pressure.

  Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting AMN for a decline to 35 within the next few months. The stock is suitable for an aggressive bears. A protective stop buy can be placed near 44.50.



TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)