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Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of  Stock Charts - Thursday, March 25

Daily - Bullish Investors  - Go To TTD Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch  List and Performance -  Friday, March 26

Go To Prior Days TTD "Reports"

Weekly - Bullish Investors Go To TTD Bargain Setups - Feature  - Monday, March 22

Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday March 22


Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks"


Go to Video Show -TTD Performance 2008 Long and Short


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Ticker Tape Digest

Friday - March 26, 2010


By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

Ticker Tape Digest's Trading Strategies Overview and Performance

Bullish

Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns.

(See Performance)


Aggressive Investor Bullish-  "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit."

  (See Performance)


Conservative Investors  "Bargain Buy Trades"  (swing trades). Ideally suited for entry into stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend. Good for trading range markets

 (See Performance)


Bearish

Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns

  (See Performance)


Conservative Bearish Investors  (swing traders).  "Bargain Bearish Plays" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for trading range markets with overall market down trend.

  (See Performance)

 The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long  These are for conservative bullish Investors The strategy is called swing trading. These long buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. They are good for trading range markets. These stocks can give a good return in a week or two. They can also explode into a breakout and a powerful advance.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.

  TTD's Bearish bargain play stocks to sell short. These issues are usually in down trends and are poised to rollover after a minor rally. They often can provide a conservative bear with a good entry point.

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings.TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

Quote or chart

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.


                                                                                            Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 4

Stocks Screened - 8,200

Bull side - Breakout list shrinks. Stock market very extended. Bulls be watchful now and more conservative. Major averages showing signs of weakening of upward momentum. So caution is advised.

The action indicates money is not fleeing stocks.

(Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Favorable

Market (Daily) - NYSE  Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market  (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish


Today's Featured Breakout Stock

Coach Inc. (COH) - 39.98, up 1.28 - Breakpoint 39.19

Sets New 52-week High, TTD Looks For Move to 48

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - COH - AVERAGE

  COH, based in New York, sells leather goods and accessories. Annual revenues: $3.3 billion. COH's stock breaks out today from an 11-week, cup-and-handle base and makes a new 52-week high. The move comes with a good expansion in volume even though the stock market is mixed today. COH is trading 5.1 million shares. Its average daily volume is 3.7 million shares.

  TTD highlighted COH as a breakout our midsession show on the Web Friday.

  COH's 10-minute chart shows the stock tickling its breakpoint on Thursday. This morning, the stock drove through the breakpoint with a good expansion in intraday volume.

  The stock peaked in the morning and then faded back a little, but held above the breakpoint.

  COH's tape action shows the big block trades of the past few days.

  There were several key trades that indicated strong institutional accumulation.

  The first was a big block of 138,200 shares that crossed on March 23 at $38.35. That was up from the prior block trade at $38.32.

  The second was a big block of 225,200 shares crossing at $38.65, up from the prior block trade. Finally, the last key block trade was 74,700 shares going off at 39.55. That was up sharply from the prior block trade at $38.70.

  COH sells accessories and gifts for women and men. The company's handbags use a range of leathers, fabrics and materials.

 COH’s product offerings include handbags, women’s and men’s accessories, footwear, jewelry, wearables, business cases, sunwear, travel bags, fragrance and watches.

  COH has stores in North America, Japan, Hong Kong, Macau and mainland China.

. COH's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 125% versus a 40% gain in the S&P 500 index.

  COH's long-term chart shows the stock with a powerful advance from 5 back in 2002 to a peak of 54 in 2007. The stock was then pulled back to 11 during the bear market. However, it has since rebounded strongly.  

  COH's daily chart shows the cup-and-handle base and the breakout. The stock took time to set up the handle portion of the base. That was bullish meaning that the stock had an opportunity to rest before breaking out.

  COH's breakout comes with a nice widening of the spread. That is bullish.

  The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is slightly bullish.

 The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in an overall up trend.  That indicates there has been good solid buying supporting the stock's advance.

  Analysts forecast COH's net for the fiscal year ending June 30 should climb 13% to $2.15 a share from $1.91 a year ago. The stock sells with a price earnings ratio of 18.

  Going out to fiscal 2011, the Street looks for net to rise 10% to $2.37 a share from the anticipated $2.15 a share. There is potential for that estimate to be boosted if the economy rebounds well.

  COH's net for the fiscal third quarter ending March 31 should rise 19% and then in the fourth quarter show a modest acceleration in growth with a gain of 24%.

  Net for the third quarter should come in at 45 cents a share, up from 38 cents a year ago. The highest estimate on the Street is at 48 cents a share. COH has a tendency to beat the consensus estimate by a few cents. The past two quarters it topped the consensus by 3 cents a share and five cents.

  Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting COH for a move to 48 within the next few months or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near 38 which is tight. TTD rates COH a good intermediate-term play. Today, the stock got a boost from an upgrading by J P Morgan.

 Sponsorship: Very Good. The largest buyer recently was 4-star rated T. Rowe price Mid-Cap Growth Fund which purchased 2.8 million shares. The largest fund holder is 4-star rated Columbia Acorn Fund, 4-star rated, with a 1.5% stake.

  Insider Activity: Slightly Bearish. Insiders have been buying via stock options at low prices. Their latest selling came at $34.97. Right now, 21 analysts follow the stock, 12 have a buy, down from 13 three months ago.



  Stock Performance Chart for 12 months with Quarterly Earnings Markers.

   


TTD's Breakout Profile Rating

Coach Inc. - (COH)

TTD Check List Bullish Bearish Neutral
Near 52-week High YES    
Volume YES    
Tick Volume YES  
Price Trend - Daily YES  
Price Trend - Long Term     YES
Price Daily Spread YES  
Base Structure YES  
Base - A-D YES    
Earnings-Quarterly YES    
Earnings-Long Term YES    
Earnings Outlook YES    
Industry Group YES  
Prior Breakout Success     YES
Fund Sponsorship YES    
Total Score 12 0 2

All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)


  


Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SMOD -  BELOW AVERAGE

                    TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SLM - BELOW AVERAGE


Weekly - Conservative Investors Bearish (swing traders) - Go To TTD Bargain Short Trade Setups - Monday, March 22

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Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today -  6

Stocks Screened - 8,2007

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks today, but more than the upside breakouts. Stock market looks a bit tired after a good run. Bears remain conservative.  TTD's short play on Thursday was  Electro Optical Sciences Inc. (MELA) - $7.28, down $1.88. Today, the stock has pushed lower and is at $7.06. It is working well for bears.


List of Stocks To Sell or Short

(Trading strategy: These stocks can be sold short, or if held should be sold. If a stock is sold short, a protective stop buy should be placed. Short plays work best when the stock market is in a down trend.)

  


Commentary on TTD’s Feature Bear Play

National Oil Well Varco Inc. (NOV) - 40, down 0.91

Profits to Decline 17% This Year,  TTD Targets a Drop to 33

 NOV, based in Houston, makes products used for oil and gas drilling and production. Annual revenues: $12.7 billion. NOV's stock falls below key support today with a pick up in volume. Oil stocks have been acting weak lately. NOV's breakdown today comes on volume of 6.8 million shares. The stock's average daily volume is 4.2 million shares.

   NOV's stock edged lower in the morning. It hit a bottom at 39.42 around 1 p.m. the stock then staged a modest lift.

  The stock's tape action shows clear institutional selling pressure. A key trade took place on Thursday. That was when a big block of 149,900 shares crossed the tape at $40.90. That was down sharply from the prior block trade that went off at $41.94.

  NOV provides systems for the drilling, completion, and servicing of oil and gas wells.

  The firm also service pipelines, flowlines and other oilfield tubular products. It also provides operating supplies and spare parts to drill site and production locations.

 This year, analysts forecast NOV's earnings will drop 17% to $3.23 a share from $3.89 a year ago. For the upcoming first quarter, they see a 25% decline in net to 85 cents a share from $1.13 a share a year ago.   

  NOV's chart shows the stock trending sideways holding key support near 41 for several months. However, to day it cuts below that technical support. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is bearish. The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is rolling over indicating clear selling pressure.

   Strategy Opinion:  TTD is targeting NOV for a drop to 33 within the next few months. A protective stop buy can be placed near 41.50.



TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

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For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission. Some of the charts are from Telescan, Insight Trading, First Alert and other sources.)