Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of  Stock Charts - Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Daily - Bullish Investors  - Go To TTD Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch  List and Performance - Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Ticker Tape Digest

Tuesday - March 26, 2013

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

 The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

  Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 10

Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average

Stocks Screened - 8,400

Bull side - Breakout list shows several Oil related issues. Bulls be selective. Stock market holds in consolidation pattern within up trend.

 (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Favorable

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market  (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish 

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action - March 26

(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011- 2012)

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Hornbeck Offshore Services Inc. (HOS)  - 45.82, up 0.81 - Breakpoint 44.92

Net to Soar 81% This Year, TTD Targets 58

  HOS, based in Covington, La., provides marine transportation services for the offshore oil industry.  HOS breaks out today from an eight-week, cup-and-handle base. The move carries the stock close to a four-year high. So far today, HOS is trading 453,086 shares. Its average daily volume is 453,000 shares.

  HOS, an oil related play, was part of bullish action in the sector on Tuesday.

  HOS's stock worked higher through the session. (see 10-minute chart). In the afternoon, the stock trended sideways holding the bulk of its gain for the day.

  The stock's close near its high for the day was bullish.

  TTD's clip of the tape shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks rising from $44.18 to $45.82.

  A key bullish trade Tuesday came when a block 16,500 shares crossed the tape at 45.46, up from the prior block trade at $45.98.   

 HOS provides technologically advanced, new generation OSVs serving the offshore oil and gas industry, primarily in the Gulf of Mexico and in select international markets.

 The focus of their OSV business is on complex exploration and production activities, which include deepwater, deep well and other logistically demanding projects.

  The firm also transports petroleum products through their tug and tank barge segment serving the energy industry, primarily in the northeastern U.S. and Puerto Rico.

  HOS's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 8% versus a 10% gain for the S&P 500 index.

  There are two key bullish items in the performance chart, one, the stock responded strongly to the recent earnings report and there was recent insider buying (see green bar portion).

  HOS's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in 2004 and trading around 10. The stock surged to a peak of 56 in 2008. The stock then took a dive during the bear market falling back to 10.

  However, the stock has since rebounded strongly making a fourfold move.   

  HOS's daily chart shows the stock breaking out today from a cup-and-handle base that was formed after a move up from 34 in December.

  The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is in a strong up trend and broke before the stock price. That was a bullish omen.

  The TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is modestly bullish.

  HOS's key is its strong earnings outlook.

  This year, analysts are forecasting an 81% jump in earnings to $2.06 a share from $1.14 a year ago. The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 21. TTD sees that as low given the strong earnings outlook. The earnings growth rate is four times the price-earnings ratio.

  Going out to 2014, the Street projects an 88% surge in net to $3.87 a share from the anticipated $2.06 this year.

  For the upcoming first quarter, net should rise 22% to 32 cents a share from 26 cents a year ago. However, the highest estimate on the Street is at 41 cents a share. HOS tends to top and some times fall short of the consensus on the Street. However, in the latest quarter it topped the consensus by 7 cents a share, or by 29%. (See table)

  Going out to the second quarter, earnings will show a modest acceleration with net climbing 27% to 44 cents a share from 35 cents a year ago.

  Strategy Opinion: TTD is very bullish on HOS due to its strong earnings outlook. TTD is targeting HOS for a move to 58 within the next few months, or sooner.

  It will be important for HOS to meet or top earnings estimates. A protective stop can be placed near 43, which is tight.

  TTD rates HOS an excellent intermediate-term play if earnings meet expectations.

  Sponsorship: Average. The largest fund holder is DFA U.S. Small Cap Value II Fund with a 3.5% stake. The fund was a recent seller of 72,975 shares. A key buyer recently was 3-star rated U.S. Global Investors Global Resources which added 200,000 shares. It is a new position.

  HOS has 34.5 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 94% of the stock.

  Insider Activity: Bearish. Insiders were recent buyers at $13.83. They sold at $45. Currently, 9 analysts follow the stock, 6 have a buy, down from 7 three months ago.

Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 3

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks today as stock market rallies strongly into quarters end. Bears be selective and conservative. TTD's short from Monday was Vitamin Shoppe (VSI) at 48.96.The stock has edged down to 48.84 and is working okay for bears.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Agrium Inc. (AGU) - 98.03, down 0.75

Profit Growth to Shrink, TTD Sees Decline to 88

 AGU, based in Calgary, Canada, produces fertilizer. Annual revenues: $16.7 billion. AGU's stock moves lower today undercutting key technical support. The company is expected to show a significant slowdown in earnings growth. So far today, AGU is trading 965,668 shares. Its average daily volume is 898,000 shares. TTD sees more on the downside.

  AGU's stock fell in the morning. It hit an intraday low of 97.11 around noon. In the afternoon, the stock staged a rally.

  AGU's tope action shows the recent big block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks declining firm $100.90 to $97.34.

  A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 12,500 shares crossed the tape at $98.43. That was down from the prior block trade at $99.01.

  AGU produces fertilizer and is a major retail supplier of agricultural products and services in both North America and Argentina.

 The company makes four primary types of fertilizers: nitrogen, phosphate, potash and sulphur. AGU's strategy is to grow through expansion of existing operations and acquisitions and the development of new products.

  AGU's quarterly earnings growth will slow. Analysts are forecasting a 13% rise in net in the first quarter and then just a 1% gain in the second quarter. Overall, profits for 2013 are expected to rise 4% and then in 2014 be flat.

  AGU's daily chart shows the stock starting to breakdown from a head-and-shoulder pattern. The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is bearish.

   Strategy Opinion:  TTD is targeting AGU for a decline to 88 within the next few months. One needs to be patient with the play. A protective stop buy can be placed near 102.

TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2013

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)