Ticker Tape Digest

Monday - April 2, 2018

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

   Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.

  We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

   The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

   TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

   To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.   

   For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

Monday - April 2, 2018

TTD's Breakout Stocks

  Stock Market Overview

Total Buy Breakouts so far today -  2

Quality of Breakouts -  Below Average.

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Bull side -  Only a few breakouts as stock market falls sharply. Bulls be patient and conservative. Bears now have chances in selected situations.

Stock market  -  Bearish. Major market averages Bearish in the daily and weekly time frames. The monthly holding.

Stock Market Momentum

(Daily is based on a moving average)

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action - Monday

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Science Applications Intl. (SAIC) - 80.10, up 1.30 - Breakpoint 79.41

IT Defense Play Net Tops Estimates, TTD Targets 105 

  SAIC, based in Reston, Va., provides technical and information technology services to the U.S. department of defense. Annual revenues: $4.5 billion. SAIC's moves higher Monday and breaks out from its 17-week, cup-and-handle base.

  So far today, SAIC is trading a heavy 529,328 shares, double its average daily volume of 274,000 shares.

  TTD sees more on the upside.

  SAIC's breakout is impressive coming against the backdrop of a big stock market decline Monday.

  SAIC's stock moved higher in the morning and broke out. The stock drove to an intraday peak of $83.11 around noon.

  The move was in contrast to the stock market's sharp drop. SAIC then worked lower in the afternoon, but managed to hold above its breakpoint line.

   Tape Action

  SAIC's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $78.80 in the prior session to as high as $83.11.

  A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 5,508 shares crossed the tape at $79.49.

  That was up from the prior block late in the prior session at $78.80 on 1,457 shares.

 Near the close Monday a block of 27,005 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $80.10 

  That came on a down tick from the prior trade at $80.12 on 100 shares.

  Business

 SAIC produces enterprise information technology products and  services.

 SAIC provides its services primarily to the U.S. Department of Defense, the intelligence community and federal civilian agencies.

 The company provides engineering, systems integration and information technology offerings for government projects, and services for higher-end, differentiated technology services.

 SAIC sells equipment, maintenance of ground and maritime systems; logistics; training and simulation; operation and program support service.  

Charts

  SAIC's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 11% versus the 11% gain for the stock market.

  Insiders were recent buyers at $34.73. They have not done any selling recently.

  SAIC's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in 2013 at $33.52. The stock reached an all-time high of $89.87 in early 2017.

  The stock then pulled back, rallied and formed its most recent base.   

  SAIC's daily chart shows the stock advancing from $68 back in November to a peak near $79.

  The stock then formed its cup-and-handle base.

  The breakout clears the base, although the stock closed near the low of its trading range Monday.

  SAIC's CCI momentum indicator is solidly bullish.

  Earnings Outlook:

  SAIC's earnings for the fiscal year ending in January of 2019 are projected to rise 15% to $4.05 a share from the $3.53 the prior year.

  The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 20. TTD sees that as reasonable.

  Looking out to fiscal 2020 ending in January, The Street is currently forecasting a 5% increase in net to $4.25 a share from the anticipated $4.05 this year.

  Net for the upcoming fiscal first quarter ending in April is expected to be down 8% to 99 cents a share from $1.06 the year before. However, there are some estimates as high as $1.09 a share. Four analysts follow the stock.

  Going out to the fiscal second quarter ending in July, analysts look for a 10% gain in net to 98 cents a share from 89 cents the year before.  

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting SAIC for a move to $95 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop can be placed near $76.

Intermediate-Term Rating: Average.

Suitability: Average Bulls.

                 TTD's special research of  Stock's Prior Performance:  

Probability - Breakout Success - Average. SAIC has scored only small gains off recent breakouts. The stock needs to be watched closely.

Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish.  SAIC rose 8 times after the past 10 earnings reports when there was a significant change.

Probability:  Seasonal Success - Bullish. SAIC rose an average of 0.7% in April and an average of 3% for May the past several years.

           Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout

(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.

Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)

  Stock's Long-term Chart

   Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years

Showing % Months UP and % Change

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 17

Stocks Screened - 12,234

Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.

Bear Side - large list of breakdown stocks as stock market falls sharply. Bears can be venturesome. The momentum to the downside is strong.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) - 57.75, down 4.21

Net to Decline 14% This Year, TTD Sees Decline to 50

  ALK, based in Seattle, operates Alaska Airlines, Virgin America Inc. and Horizon Air. Annual revenues: $7.9 billion. ALK's stock falls sharply Monday and undercuts key technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.

  So far today, ALK is trading a heavy 3.7 million shares, almost double its average daily volume of 1.9 million shares.

  ALK's stock fell steadily during the day and was unable to rally.

  The stock cut below its support line in the morning. It touched an intraday low $57.60. in the afternoon. It closed near its low for the day which is bearish.

  Tape Action

  ALK's tape action shows the recent block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks falling from $62.05 in the prior session to as low as $57.71 Monday afternoon.

  A key bearish trade came late on Friday when a massive block of 105,349 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $61.96.

  That was down from the prior block at $62.05 on 6,500 shares.

 Near the close Monday a massive block of 373,989 shares (duplicated) crossed at $57.75.

  That came on an up tick from the prior trade at $57.74 on 100 shares.

  Business

  ALK's airlines handles passengers and cargo throughout the U.S., parts of Canada, Mexico, Costa Rica and Cuba.

  ALK's  regional segment includes Horizon's and other third-party carriers' scheduled air transportation for passengers across a short distance network within the U.S.

 Earnings:

  This year, analysts are forecasting a 14% increase in net to $5.69 a share from $6.64 the year before.

  For the upcoming first quarter, analysts expect a loss of 14 cents a share compared with a profit of $1.05 the prior year period.

  Net for the second quarter is expected to fall 23% to $1.93 a share from the $2.51 the year before.   

Charts:   

 ALK's daily chart shows the stock cutting sharply below key technical support with a pick up in volume. The stock is in a clear down trend from its peak of $101.43 set in March of 2017.

  ALK's 12-month performance chart shows the stock down 37% versus an 11% gain for the stock market.

Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting ALK for a decline to $50 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $59.

Suitability: Average Bears.

  TTD's special probability research of  Prior Performance:  

Probability - Earnings Response - Neutral.  ALK rose just 4 times after the past 8 earnings reports when there was a significant change.

Probability:  Seasonal Activity - Extremely Bearish.   ALK declined an average of 6.2% in April but rose 0.9% in May the past several years.

   Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500

Insider Buying in Green  - Insider Selling in Red

   TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2018

    TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been  a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

   For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.

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 TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays.  There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.  

TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.

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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)