Daily - Go to TTD's Tape of  Stock Charts - Wednesday, April 3, 2013

Daily - Bullish Investors  - Go To TTD Pre-Market Opening Breakout Watch  List and Performance - Wednesday, April 3, 2013

Ticker Tape Digest

Wednesday - April 3, 2013

By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD

Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.

 The TTD report also contains stocks to short as  breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.

  Investors should  tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.

  TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.

 These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.

  TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely  well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.

 TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term.  These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.

   TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.

  TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.  

 TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).

 TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.

TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.

It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.

 Quality rating of breakout  Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.

TTD also has  special feature sections on  Educational Tips on Investing.

To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco  leo@tickertapedigest.com.For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.

  Breakout Stocks

Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 5

Overall Quality of Breakouts - Average

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Bull side - Breakout list small as stock market declines broadly. Nasdaq weakens. Bulls be selective. Coming earnings reports will be a key.

 (Put mouse on Dow chart to see Nasdaq chart)

Long Term Environment for bulls:  Favorable

Market (Daily) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bearish

Market (Weekly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish

Market  (Monthly) - NYSE Bullish, Nasdaq Bullish 

Ticker Tape Digest's

Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action - April 3

(See Top Performing Breakout Stocks for 2011- 2012)

(The “breakout List” gives all stocks breaking out of a base of five weeks or more. These stocks have a good chance to trend higher. However, a stop should be used to avoid those that do not work. They are ranked according to percentage change and classified as leaders or other. (Trading strategy: One should buy breakout stocks at breakpoint by using market order or stop buy)All Timely Breakout Stocks From Tape Action Today )  

Today's Featured TTD Breakout Stock

Conns Inc. (CONN)  - 39.01, up 2.93 - Breakpoint 37.81

Posts Strong Profits,  TTD Targets 48

  CONN, based in Beaumont, Tex., is a retailer of home appliances. Annual revenues: $841 million. CONN's stock breaks out today from a four-week base and hits a seven-year high. The push higher was triggered by a strong earnings report. So far today, CONN is trading a heavy 2.9 million shares, almost six times its normal daily volume of 507,00 shares.

  TTD highlighted CONN as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Wednesday.

  CONN came in with earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter ended January 31 of 50 cents a diluted share, up from 24 cents a year ago.  The bullish news propelled the stock out of its base on big volume.

  For the fiscal year, earnings hit $1.56 a share compared with a loss of 12 cents a share a year ago.

   CONN's stock gapped higher in the morning to breakout from its base (see 10-minute chart). The stock then pulled back a bit and trended sideways the rest of the session.

  CONN's tape action shows the recent big block trades.

  One can see the price for the blocks jumping from $36.08 on Tuesday to a peak of $40.40 Wednesday.

 A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 24,392 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape in the morning at $40.40.

 That was up from the prior block at $36.08.

  There was some profit taking around midday. Afterwards the stock firmed up.

  CONN is a specialty retailer currently operating  in Texas and Louisiana.

 The firm sells home appliances such as refrigerators, freezers, washers, dryers and ranges, and a variety of consumer electronics items like projection, plasma and LCD televisions, camcorders, VCRs, DVD players and home theater products.

 The company also sell home office equipment, lawn and garden products and bedding. It is continuing to introduce additional product categories for the home to increase same store sales.

 CONN's 12-month performance chart shows  the stock appreciating 100% versus an 14% gain for the S&P 500 index.

 CONN's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in 2003. The stock climbed from 18 to a peak of 44.

 However, during the bear market the stock fell all the way back to 4 by 2010. It has since turned up and has made sixfold move from its low. It is now in a strong up trend.

  CONN's daily chart shows the stock climbing from 25 in November to 37 by March. It then set up a small flat base.

  Generally, one would like to see a longer base. However, the push higher with strong earnings and in defiance of the market selloff is impressive.

  The stock's TTD momentum indicator (top of chart) is strongly bullish. .

  The accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) turns down today because of CONN trading near the low after its gap move.

  For this fiscal year ending January 2014, the company raised its earnings forecast to $2.40 to $2.50 per share. That was above the previous guidance of $2.00 to $2.10 a share.

  The Street consensus was at $2.08 a share.

  The stock has price-earnings ratio of 16 based on projected 2014 net. TTD sees that as low given the earnings growth rate  

   Net for the upcoming fiscal first quarter ending April 30 should climb to 21% to 42 cents a share from 35 cents a share a year ago.

  Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting CONN for a move to 48 off this breakout.

 A protective stop can be placed near 37, which is tight.

 TTD rates CONN a good intermediate-term play as long as earnings remain on course.  

 Sponsorship: Very Good. A key fund holder is 5-star rated Villere Balanced Fund with a 1.2% stake. It was a recent buyer of 43,166 shares.  Also, 2-star rated  Fidelity Advisor Small Cap Growth Fund was a buyer of 194,947 shares. It now is the second largest fund holder with a 2.3% stake.

 CONN has 34.1 million shares outstanding. Institutions hold 70% of the stock.

  Insider Activity: Bearish. Insiders have been steady sellers around $27 to $29. Currently, 8 analysts follow the stock, 7 have a buy, the same sentiment as three months ago.

Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers.

Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks

Ticker Tape Digest’s

Stocks To “Sell or Short”

Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.

Shorts from tape action so far today - 15

Stocks Screened - 8,300

Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.

Bear Side - Large number of breakdown stocks today dominated by precious metal issues. Bears be selective.  Stock market vulnerable as Nasdaq weakens. TTD's short play from Tuesday was Ezcorp Inc. (EZPW) at 19.60. The stock has declined to 19.20 so far today and is working well for bears.

List of Stocks To Sell or Short

TTD’s Feature Bear Play

Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) - 27.04, down 1.25

Net to Decline in First Quarter, TTD Sees Side to 22

  ABX, based in Toronto, produces gold. Annual revenues: $14.6 billion. ABX's stock falls today in heavy trading. The gold and silver stocks resumed their decline today. So far ABX is trading a heavy 1.6 million shares, almost double its normal daily volume of 9 million shares.

 TTD highlighted ABX as a short at our midsession video show on the Web Wednesday.

  Analysts expect ABX to show an 11% decline in first quarter net to 97 cents a share from $1.09 a year ago.

  The lowest estimate on the Street is at 85 cents a share. The company came in under the consensus estimate two out of the past three quarters.

  ABX's stock fell steadily in the morning. It hit an intraday low at 26.85 in the early afternoon. It then trended sideways.

  ABX's tape action shows the recent big block trades. One can see the price for the blocks declining from $28.70 to $27.33.  A key bearish trade came when a block of 88,050 shares crossed the tape at $28.18. That was down from the prior block at $28.29.

  ABX produces gold from what it says are low-cost mines in North and South America.

  For the year, analysts are forecasting an 8% rise in net to $4.13 a share from $3.82 the year before.

  ABX's daily chart shows the stock trending lower and then trying to form a bottom around 28. That has failed and now the stock breaks further to the downside with expanding volume. The stock's accumulation - distribution line (bottom of chart) is trending lower showing clear selling pressure.

  Strategy Opinion:  TTD is targeting ABX for a decline to 22 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near 28.50.

TTD takes no responsibility for trading by those using this information. The stocks presented in our report are those we deem the best looking "Day Trades" for the long side. We take no responsibility for the accuracy of this data, although every effort is made to present the information correctly. Copyright Ticker Tape Digest. - 2013

TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 20 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”

For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: B. J. Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.

(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)