Daily - Go to TTD's Chart scroller of Breakout Stocks - Monday, April 3, 2017 |
Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 3, 2017 |
|
Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
---|
By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as breakout trades, quick trades, or bargain trades. We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
---|
The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com. For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Monday - April 3, 2017
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 8
Quality of Breakouts - Average
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Very selective list of breakout stocks. Bulls be conservative.
Stock market - Dow and SPX 500 cut below 14-day moving average line turning them bearish on a daily basis. Nasdaq continues to perform well. The long-term trend is still up.
Stock Market Momentum
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bullish |
Dow - Bullish, |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bearish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SODA - AVERAGE |
SODA, based in Israel, makes machines producing carbonated beverages. Annual revenues: $476 million. SODA's stock drives higher Monday and breaks out from an eight-week flat base. The move carries the stock to a three-year high.
So far today, SODA is trading a heavy 795,081 shares, four times its average daily volume of 200,000 shares.
TTD highlighted SODA as a breakout at our midsession video show on the Web Monday.
SODA's stock moved higher in the morning and cut across its breakpoint line.
The stock then rested and finally around mid day drove higher to reach its intraday peak at $51.79.
The stock then trended sideways in the afternoon.
Tape Action
SODA's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $48.43 in the prior session to as high as $51.67.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 4,891 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $48.68.
That was up from the prior block trade at $48.43 on 16,181 shares late in the prior session, Friday.
There was some profit taking near the close when a block of 4,668 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $51.06.
That was down from the prior block trade at $51.21 on 7,144 shares.
Business
SODA makes home beverage carbonation systems.
They enable consumers to transform ordinary tap water into sparkling water and flavored sparkling water.
The company sells in the Americas, Western Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa.
The Americas consists of the U.S., Canada and other markets in North America, Central America and South America.
Charts
SODA's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating a sensational 255% versus a 15% gain for the stock market.
The stock moved higher after its past four earnings reports.
Insider activity was not available.
SODA's long-term chart shows the stock coming public in 2010 at $24.75. The stock rose to its all-time high of $79.72 in 2011.
It the fell back sharply $27.85 later in 2011, based and rallied again to $77.80 in 2013.
However, after that the stock went into a steady decline falling to an all-time low of $11.40 in 2015.
Since then, SODA has been trending steadily higher having made almost a fivefold comeback.
SODA's daily chart shows the stock climbing from $25 in November to a peak near $50.
The stock put down a flat base above its rising 50-day moving average line.
The breakout comes with a widening of the daily spread (range from high to low) and an expansion in volume.
The stock's CCI momentum indicator is strongly bullish.
Earnings Outlook
This year, analysts are forecasting a 17% increase in net to $2.42 a share from $2.07 a year ago.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 21. TTD sees that as reasonable at this time.
However, going out to 2018, the Street is predicting a slowdown in earnings growth. They see net up a modest 8% to $2.60 a share from the anticipated $2.42 this year.
Net for the upcoming first quarter will be strong. Analysts see a 31% leap in profits to 38 cents a share from 29 cents the year before.
Profits for the second quarter are projected to rise 27% to 47 cents a share from 37 cents the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting SODA for a move to $60 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near $47.
TTD rates SODA an average intermediate-term play. However, it may also be considered a trading play for short-term investors.
Suitability: Average Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Excellent. SODA has racked up some tremendous gains off its breakouts.
Probability - Earnings Response - Very Good. SODA has moved higher after nine out of the past 13 earnings reports.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Good. SODA has moved slightly higher in April, but sharply higher in May.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
22% |
1/24/2017 | 41.67 | 51.06 | Still in play |
81% |
12/8/2016 | 28.19 | 51.06 | Still in play |
36% |
7/8/2016 | 22.46 | 30.57 | 8/16/2016 |
108% | 5/10/2016 | 14.71 | 30.57 | 8/16/2016 |
13% | 8/19/2015 | 21.09 | 23.96 | 6/18/2015 |
40% | 5/6/2013 | 54.02 | 76.11 | 6/10/2013 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -BMA - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - QCP - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - ELOS - AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock -TESLA - BELOW AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 7
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Unfavorable.
Bear Side - Small list of breakdown stocks but some interesting plays. Auto parts stock driving south. Bears be conservative.
COTY, based in New York, makes and sells beauty products. Annual revenues: $5.4 billion. COTY's stock breaks below key technical support Monday with a big pick up in volume. TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, COTY is trading 7 million shares. Its average daily volume is 4.1 million shares.
The stock fell steadily in the morning and touched an intraday low at $17.52.
It lifted modestly in the afternoon, but remained in the red for the day.
Tape Action
COTY's tape action shows the recent block trades
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $18.22 to as low as $17.61.
A key bearish trade came late in the prior session when a massive block of 435,378 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $18.13.
That was down from the prior block at $18.16 on 100,000 shares.
Business
COTY sells beauty products covering: Fragrances, color cosmetics and skin & body care.
Its fragrance brands include Calvin Klein, Marc Jacobs, Davidoff, Chloe, Balenciaga, Beyonce, Bottega Veneta, Miu Miu and Roberto Cavalli.
Its color cosmetics include lip, eye, nail and facial color products.
The brands in its color cosmetics segment include Bourjois, Rimmel, Sally Hansen and OPI.
Its skin & body care products include shower gels, deodorants, skin care and sun treatment products. Its skin & body care brands are adidas, Lancaster, philosophy and Playboy.
Earnings:
This fiscal year ending in June analysts are forecasting a 45% drop in net to 75 cents a share from $1.37 a year ago.
The Street is forecasting a 33% increase in net for the fiscal third quarter ending in March to 12 cents a share from 9 cents the year before.
However, COTY disappointed the past two quarters missing the Street consensus by 5 cents a share and 10 cents.
Charts: COTY's daily chart shows the stock falling from $23 back in November to around $18. The stock tried to form a bottom but fails. It cuts below key technical support with a pick up in volume.
COTY's 12-month performance chart shows the stock falling 38% versus a 15% gain for the stock market.
Insiders were recent buyers around $18 to $19 a share. Jab Cosmetics BV was a recent buyer of 4.1 million shares.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting COTY for a decline to $13.50. A protective stop buy can be placed near $20.
Suitability: Average Bears.
TTD's special probability research of WOR's Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Average. Stock rose 6 out of the past 12 earnings reports.
Probability: Seasonal Action - Average Stock rose 3.2% in past 5 Aprils, but fell 1.7% in May. It rose only 50% of the time in April.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - COTY - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He is also a speaker at the Intershow conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680. Distributed by Corona Publishing Enterprises. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. P.O. Box 2044 Chandler, Az. 85244-2044. TTD “Professional Report” is available on the World Wide Web: $100 per month. Password needed. “TTD Professional“ Faxed is $200 per month. The TTD Daily Report is $39.95. Credit cards accepted.
(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)