Weekly - Bullish Conservative Investors - Go To TTD Long-Term Plays - Monday, April 2, 2018 |
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Go to Video Show - "How to Make Money With Breakout Stocks |
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By Leo Fasciocco -- TTD
Ticker Tape Digest presents its daily stock market report containing stocks to go long as Breakout Trades, Quick Trades, or Bargain Accumulation Trades.
We also feature stocks under Significant Accumulation that are poised to breakout.
Ticker Tape Digest's Daily schedule guide for TTD subscribers 1. Pre-market - check Breakout Watch List and Quick Trades. 2. Morning - (11:30 - 12 A.M.) - check breakout stocks tape and breakout chart slide show. 3. Midday (1 P.M.) check TTD Midsession Report and see market video show. 4. After close (4 P.M.) check final TTD Report for day. Trading Strategies Bullish Aggressive Investors Bullish - "Breakout Stocks" - ideally suited for bull markets and special situation stocks. Potential for large returns. (See Performance) Aggressive Investor Bullish- "Quick Trade Stocks" -ideally suited for entry into top performing issues looking for a small quick profit." (See Performance) Conservative Investors "Bargain Buy Trades for the Long Term." Ideally suited for entry into top performing big cap stocks on pullbacks within overall up trend.(See Performance) Bearish Aggressive Bearish Investors - "Breakdown Stocks" to Sell Short. Ideally suited for bear markets or market pull backs. Potential for large returns (See Performance) |
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The TTD report also contains stocks to short as breakdown plays and as bargain (swing trade) shorts.
Investors should tend to try to go with a strategy that fits with the stock market's trend, unless there is a special situation play.
TTD's Breakout Stocks - Long are most suitable for aggressive investors seeking ideal entry points into leading stocks, especially during bull markets. They can do extremely well in bull markets with gains of as much as several hundred percent.
These stocks can also do extremely well during strong market rallies, or if they are in a industry group that is performing very well. They tend to have strong earnings outlooks and are near new-52 week, or all-time highs.
TTD Quick Trade Stocks - Long These are leading issues that have pulled back in recent days, but could move higher soon. They are most suitable for Aggressive Investors willing to trade short term. These stocks will do extremely well during market advances. They have about 74% win rate. During market rally sequences the win rate is even higher. The return is small 3% to 8% in just a few days.
TTD's Bargain Buy Trades - Long - Long Term. These are for conservative bullish Investors These long-term buys are ideally suited for entry into stocks on pull backs within overall up trend. These stocks can give a good return long-term especially during a bull market.
TTD also presents Stocks To Sell or Sell Short. These issues are suitable for aggressive investors willing to take short positions both as trades or for longer-term plays. These stocks will do very well during bear markets or market pull backs.
TTD's Bearish breakdown stocks to sell short. These issues have potential to fall sharply. They often show a technical breakdown and also some fundamental business problem such as weak earnings.
TTD's multi-media updates include a slide-show that presents charts and analysis at midsession. Some times TTD presents feature analysis on stocks and the market. TTD uses Windows Media Files. (WMV).
TTD also presents a "Breakout Watch List" that is up dated daily. This list consists of key stocks in position to breakout. A close watch of this list can put you in the stock just as it breaks out. A good idea is to study the list and be ready to move into a stock quickly as it hits its breakpoint.
TTD often suggests using stop buy orders to enter. It is very important to buy a breakout stock as close as possible to the breakpoint. The idea is to get "elbow room" if the stock should follow through to the upside. This is very important in being successful in making big money with breakout stocks.
It is also essential to have a stop loss strategy for all stocks in which positions are taken. Not every stock will work as expected. It is important for investors to "police" their portfolios and avoid getting trapped in any bad positions.
Quality rating of breakout Two key factors: 1 - Stock near all-time high in price or near a 52-week high. 2 - earnings growth current year is strong. The ideal play is a stock with an Above Average Quality Rating. The stock is near a new high and will have strong earnings. TTD's other ratings are Average and Below Average.
TTD also has special feature sections on Educational Tips on Investing.
To email Mr. Leo Fasciocco leo@tickertapedigest.com.
For service, email Beverly Owen owen@tickertapedigest.com. TTD’s Tel: 1-480-926-1680.
Tuesday - April 3, 2018
TTD's Breakout Stocks
Stock Market Overview
Total Buy Breakouts so far today - 9
Quality of Breakouts - Above Average.
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Bull side - Small list of breakouts, but some good looking plays for aggressive bulls.
Stock market - Bearish. Major averages remain bearish on daily and week charts. Monthly still holds bullish.
Bulls need to look for a bottoming pattern before becoming aggressive. That has yet to develop.
Stock Market Momentum
(Daily is based on a moving average)
Market (Daily) |
Market (Weekly) |
Market (Monthly) |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bearish |
Dow - Bullish, |
Nasdaq - Bearish |
Nasdaq - Bearish |
Nasdaq - Bullish |
S&P 500 - Bearish |
S&P 500 - Bearish |
S&P 500 - Bullish |
Ticker Tape Digest's
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - WSO - ABOVE AVERAGE |
WSO, based in Coconut Grove, Fla., make and sells air conditioners and refrigeration equipment. Annual revenues: $4.3 billion. WSO's stock drives sharply higher Tuesday and breaks out from its 11-week, double-bottom base.
TTD sees more on the upside.
So far today, WSO is trading 658,533 shares. Its average daily volume is 355,000 shares.
WSO's stock moved steadily higher in the morning and finally cleared its breakpoint line in the afternoon.
The stock closed near its high for the day with strong volume. That is bullish.
Tape Action
WSO's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks climbing from $178.80 in the prior session to as high as $184.50.
A key bullish trade came in the morning when a block of 4,923 shares crossed the tape at $179.65.
That was up from the prior block late the day before at $178.80 on 2,200 shares.
Near the close a block of 32,555 shares (duplicated) crossed the tape at $184.50.
That was up from the prior block at $184 on 2,200 shares.
Business
WSO sell air conditioning, heating and refrigeration equipment.
The company sold a range of non-equipment products, representing more than 300,000 stock keeping units, including parts, ductwork, air movement products, insulation, tools, installation supplies and thermostats.
WSO sells residential ducted and ductless air conditioners ranging from 1 to 5 tons.
It also sells gas, electric and oil furnaces.
Charts
WSO's 12-month performance chart shows the stock appreciating 28% versus a 10% gain for the stock market.
Insiders were recent buyers at $121. They were sellers late last year at $164
WSO's long-term chart shows the stock climbing from $51 in 2011 to a peak of $184.50 Tuesday - more than threefold move. The stock had just modest pull backs during its steady climb. The push to a new all-time is bullish.
WSO's daily chart shows the stock climbing to a peak near $182 by January.
The stock then pulled back and formed a classic double-bottom base with a handle.
The breakout looks solid coming with a widening of the daily spread and expanding volume.
The stock's CCI momentum indicator (bottom of chart) is solidly bullish.
Earnings Outlook:
This year, analysts are forecasting a 24% increase in net to $6.81 a share from the $5.48 the year before.
The stock sells with a price-earnings ratio of 27. TTD sees that as reasonable.
Looking out to 2019, analysts expect a 10% rise in net to $7.51 a share from the anticipated $6.81 this year.
Net for the first quarter is expected to jump 33% to 89 cents a share from the 67 cents the year before.
The highest estimate for the quarter is at 96 cents a share. The company did miss the consensus the past two quarters. So, one needs to be alert at earnings time.
Net for the second quarter is expected to rise 21% to $2.50 a share from the $2.07 the year before.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting WSO for a move to $220 off this breakout. A protective stop can be placed near $177.
Intermediate-Term Rating: Average.
Suitability: Average Bulls.
TTD's special research of Stock's Prior Performance:
Probability - Breakout Success - Average - WSO has score some good gains off some of its breakouts, but one needs to be watchful.
Probability - Earnings Response - Slightly Bullish - WSO rose 5 times after the past 9 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Success - Slightly Bullish - WSO slipped an average of 0.1% in April but rose an average of 1% in May the past several years.
Stock's Prior Performance After A Breakout
Stock's % Change from Breakout to peak - prior to cut below 50-day M/A. |
Date of Breakout |
Break point Price |
Stocks Price Peak after Breakout - prior to cut below 50-day M/A |
Date Trade Closed |
8% |
12/20/2017 |
168.11 |
181.54 |
1/26/2018 |
30% |
9/12/2017 |
139.41 |
181.54 |
1/26/2018 |
8% |
1/19/2017 |
146.76 |
159.03 |
12/8/2016 |
9% |
6/30/2016 |
137.79 |
149.64 |
9/2/2016 |
23% |
12/16/2014 |
104.10 |
128.46 |
6/1/2015 |
(In actual trading, entry and exit points could vary depending on broker execution.
Also, ideal are breakouts to a new 52-week high or better, perhaps all-time highs.)
Stock's Long-term Chart
Stock's Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
Stock's Monthly Seasonal Performance Chart - Past 5 Years
Showing % Months UP and % Change
TTD's Breakout Profile Rating Watsco Inc. (WSO) |
TTD Check List | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral |
Near 52-week High | YES | ||
Volume | YES | ||
Tick Volume | YES | ||
Price Trend - Daily | YES | ||
Price Trend - Long Term | YES | ||
Price Daily Spread | YES | ||
Base Structure | YES | ||
Base - A-D | YES | ||
Earnings-Quarterly | YES | ||
Earnings-Long Term | YES | ||
Earnings Outlook | YES | ||
Industry Group | YES | ||
Prior Breakout Success | YES | ||
Fund Sponsorship | YES | ||
Total Score | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Charts of Selected Breakout Stocks
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - SNP - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - KEX - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - PJT - ABOVE AVERAGE |
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - CRAI - AVERAGE |
Ticker Tape Digest’s Daily List of “Stocks To Sell or Sell Short” ranks stocks well timed to be sold immediately based on daily trading. The list can be used as an alert to reduce current long-term positions.
Shorts from tape action so far today - 11
Stocks Screened - 12,234
Long-Term Environment for bears: Neutral.
Bear Side - Large list of shorts Tuesday. Bears can be venturesome. Stock market is still in a down trend.
LYV, based in Beverly Hills, Ca., promotes entertainement events. Annual revenues: 10.3 billion. LYV's stock falls sharply Tuesday and follows through its recent cut below technical support. TTD sees more on the downside.
So far today, LYV is trading a heavy 4.9 million shares, more than double its average daily volume of 1.9 million shares.
LYV's stock rose slightly in the morning to an intraday high of $38.71.
The stock trended sideways and then rolled over in the late morning and moved lower the rest of the day.
Tape Action
LYV's tape action shows the recent block trades.
One can see the price for the blocks falling from $38.35 in the morning to as low as $36.61 near the close.
A key bearish trade came in the morning when a block of 25,000 shares crossed the tape at $37.41 around midday.
That was down sharply from the prior block at $38.35 on 67,535 shares.
Business
LYV promotes live events by handling ticketing, sponsorship and advertising. It covers concerts, sponsorship, advertising and ticketing.
The concerts handled are live music events in its owned or operated venues and in rented third-party venues.
The sponsorship and advertising segment employs a sales force that maintains relationships with sponsors to allow businesses to reach customers through its concert.
Earnings:
This year, analysts are forecasting a profit of 37 cents a share compared with a loss of 48 cents the year before.
For the upcoming first quarter, the Street is expecting a loss of 25 cents a share compared with a loss of 22 cents the year before.
Charts:
LYV's daily chart shows the stock gapping blow key support in the prior session and then driving even lower Tuesday.
The recent decline comes with heavy volume.
LYV's 12-month performance chart shows the stock up 20% versus a 10% gain for the stock market.
Insiders were recent buyers using stock options at $2.75 to $11.44 a share. They were recent sellers at $42 to $46 a share.
Strategy Opinion: TTD is targeting LYV for a decline to $31 within the next few months, or sooner. A protective stop buy can be placed near $38.
Suitability: Aggressive Bears.
TTD's special probability research of Prior Performance:
Probability - Earnings Response - Bullish. LYV rose just 5 times after the past 8 earnings reports when there was a significant change.
Probability: Seasonal Activity - Neutral. LYV declined an average of 3.1% in April but rose an average of 11.9% in May the past several years.
TTD's Quality Rating of Stock - LYV - BELOW AVERAGE |
Stock Performance Chart with Quarterly Earnings Markers vs. S&P 500
Insider Buying in Green - Insider Selling in Red
TTD columnist Leo Fasciocco has covered the stock market for over 30 years. His articles appear in many publications. He has also been a speaker at the Money Show conferences. He has been on television and radio. He is author of many educational articles about stock investing and the book “Guide To High-Performance Investing.”
For information to subscribe to the Ticker Tape Digest Services call: Beverly Owen at 1-480-926-1680.
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TTD “Professional Report” is available on the Web: $100 per month. Password needed. Published daily - around 20 times a month.
TTD Pro Report includes a Morning chart slide show of breakout stocks, a Midsession video-audio show with commentary on breakout stocks and shorts and a Final end of day overall report on breakout stocks for the session, short plays and accumulation plays. There are other features too such as Quick Trades and Long-term Plays.
TTD Daily Report is $39. It covers a Morning slide show of charts of stocks breaking out and a TTD end of day print report covering breakout stocks and shorts.
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(The information contained has been prepared from data deemed reliable but there is no guarantee of complete accuracy. Ticker Tape Digest Inc. is not affiliated with any broker, dealer or investment advisor. Nothing in this publication constitutes an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Further research is advised. This report is copyrighted and no redistribution is permitted with out permission.)